Five different women have won the last five U.S. Opens. In the last 10 years, only Naomi Osaka has won it twice (2018 and 2020). Moreover, three different women have won the first three Grand Slams of the 2024 season–Aryna Sabalenka (Australian Open), Iga Swiatek (French Open), and Barbora Krejcikova (Wimbledon).
So even though Swiatek has a comfortable lead atop the rankings, there is a decent amount of parity on the WTA Tour these days. That should make for an interesting fortnight at Flushing Meadows, where Sabalenka and Swiatek are the favorites. However, plenty of other contenders are in the mix.
Here are my best bets on the women’s side at the 2024 U.S. Open.
Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka is the favorite, and why not?!?! She is well rested and motivated, having missed Wimbledon due to a shoulder injury before skipping the Paris Olympics. As expected, she is back like gangbusters on North American hard courts. Following a quarterfinal performance in Toronto, the Belarusian rolled to the Cincinnati title–sweeping past Swiatek and Jessica Pegula along the way. Sabalenka was runner-up at the U.S. Open last summer and has not lost prior to the semifinals in New York since 2020. She has also advanced to at least the semis in six of her last seven major appearances; she has not lost prior to the quarters since Roland Garros in 2022.
Jessica Pegula
Pegula is simply on fire heading into the U.S. Open, where she has home-court advantage not only as an American but also as a native New Yorker (she is the daughter of Buffalo Bills owner Terry Pegula). The 30-year-old lifted the trophy in Toronto before finishing runner-up to Sabalenka in Cincy. Although Pegula has never made it to a slam semi, she has reached quarterfinals six times–all since the start of 2021, including two years ago at Flushing Meadows.
Paula Badosa
If you’re looking for a longshot play, Badosa may be the way to go. The 26-year-old peaked as high as No. 2 in the rankings, so there is no doubt she is talented enough to win a Grand Slam. Now she is healthy enough, too. Badosa is back on tour and back with a vengeance, having won the Washington, D.C. tournament earlier this month before making a run to the Cincinnati semis (lost to Pegula in three sets). The Spaniard has a great draw in New York City, where she would not face Sabalenka until the semifinals and Swiatek until the title match.
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who ya got?
I’ll take Iga to win the Women’s….w/Coco and Jessie in the mix at the end.
Coco?!?!
Yes!
Coco!
Rybakina
I’ve gone for Sabs beating her in the final.
I see you did, Margot!
Margot, it’s good to see you. This is the first time in eight weeks that the temperature has not been triple digits for consecutive weeks. I completely shut down when it feels like Death Valley here every day and night! It’s clear now: I cannot survive another summer in Boise, Idaho. The fires are too close here, and the toxic smoke is also a killer.
Back to the WTA draw…
Hi Elizabeth. Last slam of the year.
Global warming. Nobody can escape. Tennis/sport generally doesn’t help either. All that flying everywhere.
It’s true! There is nowhere to hide, but I still prefer drowning in a tidal wave to burning in a raging fire 😀
The Cascadia fault lies just off the Oregon and Washington coasts. Historians say it last ruptured in 1700 and sent a mega tidal wave that flooded the coastlines of Seattle and Portland. I hadn’t thought a tidal wave could reach Portland, but they say in 1700, the wave pushed through the mouth of the Columbia River, and much of the flooding extended inland via the Willamette River.
It’s great to see so many back in the TDC Brackets!
It’s no surprise that I picked Iga Swiatek to win, at least to geegee 😀 (We have the same finalists and winner)
Gosh, a big welcome back to ToMMo87! It’s especially nice to see who you picked for your WTA bracket. I remember where you are from on this planet, and it gives you an advantage to personally see and know many players in live action.
Do you know the Robert frost poem, written yoinks ago but so prescient:
Some say the world will end with fire.
Some with ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire, I’m with those who favour fire.
But some say, ice is nice and will suffice.
Margot,
It’s been a long time since I’ve heard or read that Robert Frost poem; thanks for posting it. I’ll write it down in my journal before I forget the exact words. It’s built into my ancestral genetics to be one of those who say, “Ice is nice and will suffice.”
It is eerily prescient and downright scary, in a bad way, that the fires are still growing in the beautiful valley of deeply treasured Stanley and Redfish Lake, Idaho. Loved, remote rustic cabins and the lodge at Redfish Lake burned. Redfish Lodge was mainly saved, but Cabins booked out for two years in advance burned to the ground.
Well…if I’ve GOT to choose…ice will suffice for me too.
Uncontrolled fire is terrifying but, ironically, controlled fire enabled our ancestors to survive, huddling round their fire, cooking their meat and warding off the beasties.
Yes indeed. I still love to huddle around a blazing campfire and glimpsing the eyes of wee beasts lurking closeby.
For your dictionary Grammarly bots, glimpsing is a real word! 😀 and stop editing me today on this website!! Closeby or close by is right!
Save it your edits for a place where I am writing for serious! sheesh….
I usually go for Saba over Swiatek, but JPEG in such a run of form I had to pick her in final.
Anisimova out already..she was my dark horse, was thinking Zheng was still in clay court mode.
I usually go for Saba over Swiatek, but JPEG in such a run of form I had to pick her in final.
Anisimova out already..she was my dark horse, was thinking Zheng was still in clay court mode.
And I didnty rate Coco this time at all…;)
It’s okay, Big Al. Your bracket-picking mind blinks interstellar lights in my head, especially when making my ATP brackets. You try to blink coded sense to my head, urging me to pick Carthorse! and sometimes others that I feel determined to ignore. Fortunately, like dear Farah Diba, I can find you both on Moo’s.
😏😊
Tough choice between Zverev and Carthorse. Tim henman picked Zverev to win the whole thing.
Why did I pick Anisimova? She only looked unplayable a couple weeks ago.
Funny, it’s been the WTA I’ve been doing much better in this summer
I’ve only one or two reasons you picked sweet Amanda A.
Two words, don’t take this seriously: grand Tetons, and she is too tempting not to pick!
You are great at picking WTA, Big Al. Was it you who picked Minnen this time?
It’s my fault that I often shut out reality and choose whimsy over expert advice, picking WTA. I’m out of my mind picking Muchova as deep as I did. Also, do that with Rublev
:blush: now you mention it…
You are in fine company, Big Al; ToMMo87 couldn’t resist Amanda A., either. 😀
My WTA bracket already looks like a car crash!
Just think James Bond car emerging unscathed from that crash
Hehehe!…me too M!😆..oh yeah!..hi guys!👋
Well hello! Good to see you’ve woken up at last! Was about to send Clarissa over to squark in your ear…;)
Alas, my ATP bracket in the FAA/Pouty Boy section now looks like a pile up!
Big virtual hugs x
What M. said, I copy, dear Mira Andi.
But who is geegee? They are making me breathe hard, trying to keep up!
I have much to say about the ATP brackets, but I need to go hide (must go out, anyway) before Iga’s match.
My longshot pick, Karolina Muchova, eliminated BHM!
We shall know who Karolina will meet in the US Open SF later today.
Of course, all talking heads on Tennis Channel pick Pegula.
That’s fine, but TC is not giving Iga Swiatek enough praise or respect. Iga has been #1 in the WTA for 119 Combined weeks. That makes Iga right below #7, Ash Barty, at 121 weeks at #1. It’s not bad company!
Consecutive weeks at #1 is another story. It’s a bit more complicated, but Steffi Graff and Serena Williams share it at 186 consecutive weeks.
I’ll see if I can stay ahead of Big Al in our TDC WTA bracket for a couple of hours 😀