U.S. Open seed report: Cincinnati to determine lineup for season’s final Grand Slam

With the U.S. Open draw ceremony being held next week, the Cincinnati Masters represents everyone’s last chance to battle for seeding position at the season’s final Grand Slam. From No. 1 through No. 32 and slightly beyond, here’s what could happen at the Western & Southern Open:

1. Jannik Sinner – Locked into the No. 1 seed.

2. Novak Djokovic – Not playing in Cincinnati. Defending champion could fall to No. 3.

3-4
3. Carlos Alcaraz – Would move up to No. 2 by reaching Cincinnati quarterfinals unless Alexander Zverev wins the title, in which case Alcaraz would have to reach the semifinals.

4. Alexander Zverev – Could climb as high as No. 2 with a title (if Alcaraz loses before the semifinals). Clinches a top 4 seed unless Daniil Medvedev reaches the semifinals.

5-8
5. Daniil Medvedev – Must reach at least the semifinals to have a chance for a top 4 seed. Has clinched at least a top 8 seed.

6. Andrey Rublev – Cannot climb higher than No. 6; cannot fall any lower than No. 7.

7. Hubert Hurkacz – Cannot climb higher than No. 6. Could fall out of the top 8 if two of the following happen: Casper Ruud reaches at least the third round, Grigor Dimitrov reaches at least the semifinals, Stefanos Tsitsipas reaches the final, and Ben Shelton wins the title.

8. Casper Ruud – Cannot climb higher than No. 6. Could fall out of the top 8 if either Dimitrov reaches at least the semifinals, Tsitsipas reaches the final, and Shelton wins the title.

9-12
Dimitrov, Alex de Minaur, Tsitsipas, and Taylor Fritz currently make up this group. De Minaur is not playing in Cincinnati and Fritz has already lost. Dimitrov can secure a top 8 seed by advancing to at least the semifinals while also getting some help from either Hurkacz or Ruud. Tsitsipas has to reach the final in order to have a chance of moving up.

13-16
This quartet currently features Tommy Paul, Shelton, Sebastian Korda, and Holger Rune. Paul has already lost in Cincinnati. Shelton needs a title to surge into the top 8; he needs at least a semifinal result to climb into the 9-12 range. Korda can only move into 9-12 with a final appearance; Rune must win the title.

17-24
Starting at No. 17, the list continues with Ugo Humbert, Lorenzo Musetti, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Sebastian Baez, Alejandro Tabilo, Karen Khachanov Arthur Fils, and Nicolas Jarry.

You don’t want to fall below No. 24, because the 25-32 range is matched up to face the 1-8 group in the third round. At the same time, if you go up to at least No. 16 you are guaranteed to face lower-seeded opponents at least until the fourth round. Humbert has already lost in Cincinnati. Musetti can climb in the 13-16 range with a quarterfinal performance. Everyone else must reach at least the semifinals.

25-32
The final group includes Alexander Bublik, Alexei Popyrin, Frances Tiafoe, Jack Draper, Francisco Cerundolo, Matteo Arnaldi, Flavio Cobolli, and Jiri Lehecka. Popyrin, the Montreal champion, has a chance to secure a top 24 seed by winning just a single match in Cincinnati. Everyone else must reach at least the quarterfinals (Tiafoe, Draper, Arnaldi) or semifinals (Cobolli, Lehecka).

Currently unseeded
Jordan Thompson and Jan-Lennard Struff are the two players who could move into a seeded spot by winning their next match in Cincinnati. If Thompson reaches the third round and Lehecka loses to Medvedev in round two, they would flip. Struff would temporarily move up to No. 32 with a win over Tsitsipas combined with losses by both Lehecka and Thompson.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Nuno Borges, and Tomas Machac must reach at least the third round. Luciano Darderi, Adrian Mannarino, and Matteo Berrettini must reach at least the quarterfinals.

[yop_poll id=”1419″]