U.S. Open R3 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Lopez, Nadal vs. Mayer

Roger Federer and, to a lesser extent, Rafael Nadal have looked far from invincible through two rounds of the U.S. Open. The top two favorites will try to pick up the pace as play hits Labor Day Weekend on Saturday, when they have respective meetings with Feliciano Lopez and Leonardo Mayer.

(31) Feliciano Lopez vs. (3) Roger Federer

During second-round action at the U.S. Open on Thursday afternoon, Federer faced a 35-year-old opponent against whom he had been 16-0 lifetime. The story heading into Saturday night is a similar one: on the other side of the net is a 35-year-old who is 0-12 against Federer. That would be Lopez, who is a hopeless 0-19 in the last 19 sets of this matchup. But the 35th-ranked Spaniard should take heart from the fact that Mikhail Youzhny turned in his best-ever showing against Federer in the form of a competitive 6-1, 6-7(3), 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 loss. Frances Tiafoe also pushed the Swiss to five in the opening round, so it is clear to everyone–Lopez included–that Federer is vulnerable.

Lopez, meanwhile, avoided any five-setters en route to the last 32. He took care of Andrey Kuznetsov in four before doing the same with countryman and former doubles partner Fernando Verdasco. The back-to-back victories were much-needed for Lopez, who had been a mere 2-5 in his last seven matches since capturing the Queen’s Club title. As for Saturday’s showdown, Lopez will not have too much say in the outcome. The analysis is straightforward: if Federer is close to 100 percent, he wins; if he is anything like he was against Youzhny, he loses. Through two rounds, there appears to be little hope that he is close to 100 percent.

Pick: Lopez in 4

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(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (LL) Leonardo Mayer

For once it is Federer who is struggling physically whereas Nadal is enjoying perfect health. The Spaniard’s problems, however, can be found in the surface. He has not won a Grand Slam away from the French Open since 2013 and he compiled a disappointing 6-3 record in his three tournaments in between Roland Garros and the U.S. Open this summer. Nadal has avoided the kind of drama Federer has already endured in New York, but the world No. 1 still had to battle back from a set and a break down against Taro Daniel to prevail 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 on Thursday night.

Next up for Nadal on Saturday afternoon is a fourth career contest against Mayer, who is 0-3 in the head-to-head series. The 30-year-old lost 6-1, 6-3 at the 2012 Indian Wells Masters, 6-1, 7-5 a season later in Acapulco, and 6-2, 7-5, 6-2 three years ago at Roland Garros. Mayer is ranked incredibly high (59th) for someone who played in qualifying, but his rise came after the U.S. Open entry deadline when he triumphed at the 500-point tournament in Hamburg. The Argentine suffered a bad loss to Maximilian Marterer but got in as a lucky loser before capitalizing on the opportunity with defeats of Richard Gasquet and Yuichi Sugita. The competition level ratchets up exponentially in the form of Nadal, who has owned Mayer in the past and should be confident having turned things around so well midway through his date with Daniel.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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199 Comments on U.S. Open R3 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Lopez, Nadal vs. Mayer

  1. Exactly the same. Fed hasn’t been the same since Miami, he’s been slicing too much! Nadal is the favourite and will win the tournament

  2. I thought I was the only one that thought that Federer will lose, but apparently I am not. I think Federer could stretch Lopez to five sets, but I am not sure. Also, I have a question, I am betting with my friend and he thinks Roger will win. He will give me 29 dollars if Lopez wins, and I will give him 5 dollars if Federer wins. I am not sure if it is a good deal since I do not bet a lot. Is it a good deal? Thanks!

    • He is giving you 5.8 decimal odds. Right now the current decimal odds at my sportsbook is 5.3 at this moment.

      Him giving you decimal odds of 5.8 imply that he thinks there is an 82.76% chance of Federer winning. Therefore, if you believe Federer has an 82.76% chance to win, then he is giving you a fair deal. If you believe Federer has less chance to win than 82.76%, then he is technically giving you a good deal. If you think Federer has more than a 82.76% chance to win, then he is giving you a bad deal. This is the mathematics of it. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

  3. Federer in 5. He seems to enjoy going 5 sets, so why not? (No, he’s definitely NOT human!)

    Nadal in 3 losing 8 to 10, although if his forehand goes MIA again….

  4. I’m surprised people are picking against Fed here. Everyone’s forgotten but he had a not so comfortable opening 2 rounds at the aussie open and 3 sluggish rounds at Wimby. He just got better as the opposition got tougher. Expect the same here. He just has too much confidence right now. Yeah I know he’s had 5 setters but they just don’t matter if he’s fit and his movement looked ok against Youzhny.

    • You can’t compare AO to USO. At AO he was fresh, now he is just coming back from a back injury and could hardly practice.

      I doubt Fed is feeling confident now unless he’s in denial. My guess is he’s feeling rather fortunate to survive and is hoping to do better vs Feli, hoping that his lopsided H2H would help to cast some doubts in Feli’s head.

      I think it will be a hard fought match again for Fed.

  5. Frankly speaking, after seeing the level of play of both Fed and Rafa in the 1st 2 rds, I would be really surprised if any of these 2 wins the title here.
    Rafa is playing average tennis at best right now. As for Fed, don’t really know what’s up with him. He is playing crap tennis at the moment. Don’t know how far he can make it here. I see him losing to Kohlschreiber in next round if he makes it past Lopez today.

  6. What’s going on with this site? Its been hancked by the Chinese. I had to come through a backdoor link.

    Havnt watched Fed or much of the US Opren so far but 2 5 setters is not good for Fed.

    Lopez and Del Potro will have more belief and motivation than they otherwise would and will push Fed in both matches.

    At this stage its 50/50. Thinking of laying Fed in both these matches if DP beats RBA.

    Im interested to see if Shapovalov can get to the semis. He’s side of the draw is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

  7. Cant believe Dimitrov got knocked out in straight sets also, thats crazy. Must’ve lost focus after his first Masters 1000 win. He is after all probably a Masters 1000 winner at best and through everything into winning that mentally and emotionally.

  8. The crazy thing is the “eye test” tells us a lot about Federer. If Federer can muster up some greatness about Lopez, we will all be saying he can go all the way. Federer has a favorable draw up until The Quarterfinals. That being said, one match at a time. If he can pull out the Federer of 2017 in The Grand Slams then he is the favorite. Let’s hope he can dial it back one last time this season!

  9. Those two picks are so atrocious that I had to return just to say so.

    Federer will not lose and Rafa will not win in three.

    But shouldn’t be surprised given that Ricky picked Donaldson and Johnson for the quarters and just recently said Isner would make the finals lol.

  10. I’m in Ashe right now, section 339. Rafa’s shirt is so bright, it’s blinding haha! I am seriously star-struck right now… I can’t believe Rafa Nadal is only standing like a couple hundred feet from me!

  11. As a spectator I know Rafa’s problem. Wonder, why does he not fix it ? Standing so far behind the baseline that he is not reaching for second shots. Atrocius play.

    • Maybe not the truth about Fed match, as we don’t know yet, but he was absolutely right about Rafa’s not be straight sets. I obviously still expect Rafa to come through this match. If I had to bet on it, I would bet that this match will end up like the Daniel match, where Rafa tidies it up after the first set and the opponent’s level drops.

      • Mayer is a good bit better than Daniel though. And he obviously likes being a lucky loser because he won Hamburg as a lucky loser!! Rafa should still come through though. Mayer has beaten the likes of Fed before though so he can take down big guys on big stages. Imagine if the draw got busted even more wide open.

  12. Maybe next time Rafa might complain , hey the court is so small, I am not getting time to return these missiles . I need 10 feet more out here .

  13. Pathetic TB from Rafa! Overall he played badly this set against mediocre opponent..,Rafa managed to lose this set in an inexplicable way! Unbelievable!

  14. Rafa better go home! He’s playing such atrocious tennis, it’s disgusting for and from a no.1 player! Mayer isn’t even playing that well!

    He seems so burdened by the no.1 ranking, I think he should lose it and just forget about it! He’s just lacking in confidence on the HCs, hence standing so far back to give himself more time to react; not going to help him get far! Very disappointing play and his coaches can’t coach him to move forward, or instill some belief in him, doom to fail!

  15. Leonardo Mayer is balling! Please keep it up.

    Two more sets and R. Nadal is out, Rafito can still win this match but i don’t he will win.

  16. That comment really ticks me off! What is it with Fed fans coming on here to trash Rafa ? I don’t see Rafa fans doing it to Fed as he has struggled.

    Now I am reading that the likes of Dolgo is a lock to make the quarterfinals?

    It’s too bad that some have to try to rile up Rafa fans by going after him.

    • That’s not hate against Rafa when I say that. Dolgopolov beat berdych and beat Troicki in an hour and twenty two minutes in a best of five set match. When he gets on a roll he’s so tough to stop. Also Rafa has lost the opener in his last two matches and has lost to Dolgopolov multiple times. A lot of reasons exist for thinking Dolgopolov will beat Nadal next round.

      • Yes because Dolgo has done so much lately! Troicki is not Rafa!

        Someone wins two matches and he’s a lock for the quarterfinals! Please!

        • I already explained why I picked him. He’s totally balling. You probably didn’t watch his match with Troicki he was hitting winners all over the place. Nadal hasn’t looks that sharp and Dolgopolov has beaten him on hard courts before. And it’s my opinion I’m not saying it’s a lock by any means I just think Dolgopolov will pull it off. You don’t have to overreact when I say someone will beat Nadal. I didn’t get mad when people were saying stuff like “Fed fans shouldn’t be confident in Fed’s chances in this fifth set” when he was playing Youzhny even though I knew damn well he would likely pull it out with the mental edge obvious as you can see from their past results. Some have also said he’s got no shot vs Lopez or he will surely lose and while I don’t agree I don’t think that they’re trying to take shots at Fed.

  17. At least on second serve, when he moved up, he won points. 0/6 on breakpoints and he had fair chances. He has given Mayer uselessly confidence that he can beat him.

  18. If you dont know the rankings beforehand , you would think that Mayer is world no. 1 , the way he is playing, moving forward and everything. Rafa’s game is so defensive, standing so far behind baseline

  19. Rafa continues to suffer in indoor conditions! Mayer is more aggressive player out there…Rafa making uncharacteristic errors isn’t helping either…

    • vr,

      If you had seen the tb then you would be concerned. Rafa was just abysmal. Usually he steps it up in tb’s. But not here.

      He had numerous break chances in the first set and did not convert. Same pattern as in his previous match. That gives his opponent confidence as they continue to hold serve. Then Rafa plays tighter. It’s frustrating to watch.

      He is letting lower ranked players get the better of him because he can’t convert break chances and isn’t playing aggressive. He makes them look good.

  20. First time I see Mayer, he seems very comfortable and playing very high level so far. He seems a good athlete and very talented, I dont now what gone wrong in his career.
    Nadal plays very, very well. He just didnt take a tiebreak and that gave Mayer even more energy.
    I still expect Mayer to be tired soon.

  21. I really don’t know what Rafa is afraid of, it doesn’t make sense the way he behaves! Being nervous, being scared won’t get him anywhere, unless he’s so keen to get rid of the no.1 ranking!

    Since he’s about to lose playing like that, why not just go all out and swing freely? Better to lose when fighting hard than to lose meekly! This Mayer is so beatable but Rafa is doing his best to lose to him!

  22. Just tuned in, and it looks like Mayer’s just so much more aggressive.

    Rafa needs to step it up.

    Guy’s don’t be so worried. He was a set AND a break down the other day, and he came back roaring. If anyone can pull of comebacks, it’s Nadal.

    I hope Rafa wins 🙂 !

  23. This might be another classic example of Nadal losing as a big favorite when the whole world expects him to win. This freaking guy just plays crappy out of no where.

  24. Mayer serve is bigger than the Japanese guy’s and he is mixing it up well. Those S&V’s are a nice way of not giving Rafa rhythm.

  25. I can’t believe Rafa is playing worse than his USO last year, despite having a bad wrist last year!

    BP no.10 squandered, when will this end?

  26. Rafa misses a second serve return AGAIN. This second serve was not even good!!! The previous one was at least good!

    As I write this, 12th BP!!! PLEASE GET IT!

  27. If Leonardo Mayer wins the 2nd set he will defeat my Rafito, but if R. Nadal wins the 2nd set he will win the match in 5 sets.

    Leonardo plzzz don’t blow this up.

    • We are in page 3 already, you guy’s need to go to bed or watch the match.
      If you are watching the match and posting, you won’t enjoy the match.

  28. This is looking more easy and straightforward now for Nadal, But 4R will worry me;

    Dolgopolov looked unnaturally good (from score).

    Can Nadal beat him O.o? He did it at Brisbane earlier this year, but can he do it again?

  29. I knew that long service game where Rafa finally broke would be the turning point of the match. Rafa totally playing well suddenly now. I can’t possibly imagine Mayer winning now…

  30. I think it’s clear that Rafa has simply been starting off poorly. Assuming Fed is compromised physically for the long haul, the remaining draw is so weak that Rafa can probably get away with starting poorly and still win it all!

  31. If Dolgopolov plays at the same high, brilliant level he played in the last couple of rds or his Buenos Aires Form, he might beat either of today’s match winner easily with his speed, brilliancy and un-believeable shot making!

    Anyone feel the same?

    • Dolgo can be as up and down, hot and cold as anyone on tour. But right now I’m not thinking about Dolgo, though he is one of my favorite shot-makers, some people think of him as a pure junk baller. Right now I want Rafa to win this set!!!

  32. Rafa almost had double the UFE in the first set then in the 3nd and 3rd combined.

    Love the mental strength and confidence from Nadal to step it up, and be able to cut down on errors.

  33. It seems that Rafa wants more actual match play by spending more time on the tennis court in his matches; he probably wants better feel of the balls here and also the court conditions esp when the roof is closed. If not, I really don’t know why he started poorly in each match and then fought so hard to get the win in the end, when he clearly could do better at the start of each match. Strange.

    • Hmmm it is strange.

      He’s made such a quick sudden turn around, not once, but 3 matches in a row.

      It’s like watching 2 different Nadals. One Nadal for Set 1, another, ruthless one, after Set 1 to the finish line.

  34. Even though i don’t want R. Nadal to win this match, i like him and i like player’s who don’t give up easily.

    He fought hard well done but the match is not over, come on Leonardo break back and win the 4th set.

  35. We all had fun discussing, talk 2 you guy’s later.

    Am going to cry now, don’t get twisted i like Rafito but i like someone else more.

    Good win, Congrats to all Rafans, later guys.

  36. Now, going for next 5 sets matches.
    And if both Rafa and Fed meet in semis after all the struggles, that will be very interesting match and hard to predict.

    Hopefully it happens.

    • I think that Dolgo will be a challenge especially if Rafa gets off to another slow start. Dolgo hasn’t done much lately, but he can heat up. I do think Rafa has the advantage in a Bof5 set match. He is stronger physically. He can wear down his opponents.

      Dolgo is unpredictable and can be either brilliant or awful. He is inconsistent. He could take a set off Rafa, but I just don’t see him beating Rafa. I think that Rafa has gotten great match play and been pushed to raise his level of play. These last two wins will help him.

    • It could be tough. I would give Dog a much higher chance of winning if it was best of 3, but it is not! So I see Rafa getting through it no matter what. Personally, I see Rafa winning it unless either Fed makes an insane recovery, or one of these journeymen/young bucks plays the match of a lifetime. I know that we never know what can happen, I just feel like the title is close to being practically handed to Rafa. He’s #1 for a reason- I think it’s his tournament to lose at this moment.

  37. Rafa’s through to the 4th round. Phew! He’s making it look hard but at least he’s winning instead of losing. And he looks happy. “Finding solutions” – it’s his idea of fun.

    Good luck to Roger! Cheering for both but Rafa owns my heart.

  38. I knew that Leonardo Mayer won’t win but i wanted him to win.
    A. Dolgopolov is better than Leonardo and he can defeat R. Nadal, but if he doesn’t fine, R. Federer will take good care of Rafa,

    • You make it sound like Roger’s already at the semi’s :P. Still has to face Kolschreibber(or however u spell it) which’ll probably be easy, but Delpo/Thiem can be a tough test for a slightly out of sorts-Roger.

      • You don’t know who R. Federer is, once he starts playing no one can stop him.

        Don’t get this twisted but R. Nadal is in BIG trouble, if he doesn’t want to get embarrassed he better lose b4 he meets Federer cos if he meets R. Federer the 4th time this year it would be brutal.

        Nothing will stop R. Federer 4rm winning his 3rd Grand Slam this year, mark my words.

  39. If Fed keeps playing this way and finishes this in straights, I consider him as a pretty heavy favorite again. Back doesn’t seem to be affecting him at all.

  40. Fed on absolute fire!! So glad to see him like this. He said he thought his back would free up as the tournament progressed and looks like he was right.

      • I thought of you a bunch of times during Fed’s match, Benny! I was definitely impressed with how well he served tonight. It seems like when he serves well, other things typically will follow. All in all, seeing Fed and Rafa play in the flesh, with the incredible atmosphere of Ashe Stadium, was everything I’d dreamed it would be. 🙂

        • Thanks Kev and yeah that is awesome. Nothing beats watching these guys live and up close. I saw Fed back in 2014 US Open from nosebleed seats in Ashe but what’s pleasantly surprising is that you can still see the ball well from up there!! Never have seen Rafa though that is quite incredible you got to see both in one day and both in good form winning too!!

  41. I hope Fed’s win now will spur Rafa on to do better vs Dolgo; no more early match wobbling for Rafa, now that he’s into the second week and opponents getting tougher to beat.

    I didn’t watch Fed’s match but I always feel Feli will bow down to Fed as usual; Kohl will be a bit tougher but not good enough to beat Fed. Unless Fed has his wobbling again, I expect him to reach the SF (Delpo and Thiem not playing well enough to beat Fed imo).

  42. Can’t understand why Rafa would be nervous against Mayer, he’s played him before, knows his game, has beaten him bofore comfortably.

    I can understand him getting the yips against Taro Daniels, it was the first time playing him, needed time to figure his game out but Mayer?

  43. As I suspected, Fed just needed to play into a bit of form. As long as his back is ok -and I didn’t see any sign otherwise against Feli- Fed will be very hard to beat here.

    • I told everyone not to panic, even some of Roger Federer fans here, R. Federer is one of my favourites and i know he will win the title but some of Federer fans are doubting him, that’s disappointing.

      I really like R. Nadal and i mean it but Roger Federer will win his 3rd Slam this year.

  44. As I said, Fed would have much easier time with Feli with short points and S&V game from Feli. I also said that Fed’s back was not acting up and that the reason for his lousy game in the first two matches was Fed being tired from overplay. I would add now ” not ready to play long rallies”…Fed just loves matches like this where he doesn’t need to hit more than 3 times most of the match! His brilliant serving showed he has no lingering injury. He said it himself but people failed to believe him.

    Kohls will be annoying to Fed as Fed will get an extra ball back to him, But Fed will handle him! The old man is tired hense his inexplicable errors but he will still be winning his matches that’s how good Maestro is!

    BTW, most of Fed’s five-setters are shorter than Rafa’s four setters and Rafa seems so far to spend much longer time on court…

    • so natashao..do you see Rafa reaching semis against Dolgo sand maybe Goffin/rubulev later?

      how do you see the Rafa/Fed semi panning out if it happens?

      • Rafa seems to have nervous start in all his matches now and I believe the trend will continue due to Rafa doubts about his own game and lack of confidence thereof. However, we have to bear in mind that what Rafa fears the most are big serving machines and strong flat hittters, the type of players the favorable draw allowed him to avoid this time. That’s mainly why Rafa gains confidence mid match, showing strong fighting spirit and believing he would win in the end! We witness two Rafas on the court: the early one who is aware of his error prone FHs and difficulties on ROS but once he breaks his opponent he suddenly starts playing better and his FHs gain precision. I would not say Rafa lacks either form or that his level is not high. It’s only Rafa not trusting his game on fast courts and especially indoor conditions. TBs are the big indication of Rafa not being confident enough…

        I expect Dolgo to be challenging for Rafa, probably for one set and a half. The crucial thing is for Rafa to win the second set and to try to wear Dolgo down. I think Rafa’s fitness is so essential for his matches and it will be of key importance for his possible matchup with either Goffin or Rublev!

        I do not like to think ahead when Rafa is concerned because we all know that it’s always on Rafa’s racquet and if he plays badly he could lose to anyone these days mainly because Rafa being perfectionist himself gets doubtful when his game is not perfect and loses focus and mental strength in key moments. However, again, avoiding big hitters in this USO and playing opponents where Rafa can construct the points works in Rafa favor…

        Rafa is honest with the public and he said it the right way: he would not like to see Fed on the other side of the net in the semis. However, if Rafa finetuned his game to reach the semis this Rafa will be strong opposition for Maestro!

        BTW, I will in in NY for the semis…?

  45. I’m glad Rafa DID show his fighting spirit, showed us he really wanted to win, and not to lose meekly. His actions ( fist pumping, lawn mowing fist pumping), let us know his strong desire to win and the joy of winning the match in the end.

    I was wrong about him (that I said he didn’t fight hard enough to turn the match around). Rafa needs to improve his BP conversion which is poor by any standard. Mayer wasn’t playing that well but Rafa had to take so long to overcome him!

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