U.S. Open R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Daniel, Federer vs. Youzhny

After getting their first-rounders in under the Arthur Ashe roof, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will continue their U.S. Open campaigns when second-round action resumes on Thursday. Nadal has a date with Taro Daniel, while Federer is going up against Mikhail Youzhny.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Taro Daniel

Nadal began his bid for a third U.S. Open title on Tuesday, when he got off to a slow start against Dusan Lajovic but recovered from an early break down in the first set and eventually cruised 7-6(6), 6-2, 6-2. Thus continued a stellar 2017 campaign, highlighted by a 10th French Open triumph and a return to the world No. 1 ranking (Nadal regained it two weeks ago following the Cincinnati Masters). The top-seeded Spaniard is 50-9 this season, but he bowed out early at Wimbledon to Gilles Muller and did not play great in either Montreal (lost to Denis Shapovalov) or Cincinnati (lost to Nick Kyrgios), so the jury is currently out on his form away from clay.

Up next for Nadal on Thursday is a first-ever meeting with Daniel. The world No. 121 from Japan took a much more circuitous route to the last 64, requiring five sets to outlast Tommy Paul 6-1, 4-6, 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 on Wednesday. Because of Tuesday’s rainout on all courts other than Ashe, Daniel also has one less day than his opponent with which to recover. The 24-year-old is now 4-8 at the ATP level this season and 3-7 lifetime in the main draws of Grand Slams. A massive step up in competition should bring about a swift end to Daniel’s fortnight.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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Mikhail Youzhny vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Youzhny will be facing each other for the 17th time in their careers on Thursday. This is one of the most lopsided matchups on tour, as Federer is sporting a perfect 16-0 record in the head-to-head series. He is also 37-4 in total sets at Youzhny’s expense, including 12-1 at Grand Slams. The U.S. Open is the only major at which the two veterans have never squared off, and they have not met at all since February of 2015 in Dubai. Federer is 14-1 in total sets against the Russian dating back to the second set of a 2011 Wimbledon encounter, won by the Swiss 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-3, 6-3.

Whereas the 36-year-old did not donate a single set on the way to capturing an eighth Wimbledon title last month, things look like they could be more difficult for him in New York. Federer struggled with a back issue in a recent Montreal final loss to Alexander Zverev and he has already dropped two sets at the U.S. Open, needing five to fight past Frances Tiafoe 4-6, 6-2, 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 on Tuesday night. Youzhny benefited from a favorable draw against Blaz Kavcic and took care of business 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3 on Wednesday afternoon. The 35-year-old is still a dreadful 9-18 this season and toiling away at No. 101 in the rankings. Federer may not be 100 percent, but if he is even close to full stretch he will likely make mincemeat out of Youzhny yet again.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 8-10 games

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151 Comments on U.S. Open R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Daniel, Federer vs. Youzhny

    • Federer and Nadal, both to win (mostly in 3, 4 possible).

      Going with ML (in multi-bets mostly=low odds -2700 Fed, -5021 Nadal! wow!),-1.-2 or more(-4 to -6) in LB for both! More research needed b4 betting!

      Over can be pushed by both the underdogs Youzhny and Taro as both Federer and Nadal are not in top form, yet. They are still in building (form) mode!lol

  1. there is no way this Fed is going to beat Rafa, moreover to win third slam.

    Rafa will make him a journeyman if he plays in semis. most likely Fed would be out before qf.

    • He’s definitely going to be completely worn out if he even manages to make it to the semis, especially if he keeps playing 5-setters. I wouldn’t be surprised if he withdraws if his back is as bad as it seems. I hope he doesn’t yet, though, because I have tix for Saturday night and day sessions. 🙂 As for Rafa, if he can’t win a non-clay major again here at this US Open with this ridiculous draw, then it’s hard to imagine he ever will. He came so close in AO, I can’t imagine he won’t get it done at US Open at this point…

    • vr,

      You think Lopez has a chance against Fed? I can’t believe that Fed would want to play five set matches back-to-back.

    • Lopez may be a challenge but I think Lopez will bow down to Fed in the end, Fed will win in four of five sets.

      Fed will most likely be meeting Kohl in the fourth round and the same thing will happen. Funny that Fed is meeting all those guys whom he has >10 vs 0 H2H – Ferrer at Montreal now 17-0; Youzhny now 16-0? Feli is 14-0? vs Fed now? Kohl too?

      • Not easy to predict Fed’s matches in this tournament. If he brings the intensity he had in the fourth set onward, he will be able to beat both Lopez and Kohls without too much trouble. However, his level has wavered so much and I don’t think it is normal. The only way to gauge is to watch his next performance. If he puts together a clinical performance against Lopez, then he will start talking about his chances to win the title.Right now it is just too uncertain in my opinion. I do agree with the fact that Both Lopez and Kohls might crumble under pressure.

    • I’ll be very surprised if Federer makes it past Lopez and/or Kohls.

      But all I’ve seen are the scores. Fed certainly is having to work hard. Are his back/knees, all body parts working? Glad I didn’t pick him to win the title!

  2. Rafa definitely gets his 16th slam here. He would face no opposition for the rest of tournament.

    there will not be any other second scenario. Baby Fed is gone, old Fed is hurt but trying to show he has fun in post match interview. Having fun after playing two five sets in round 1 and 2? Too much fun maybe ?

  3. Fed will have easier time with Feli! There will be no long rallies as Feli tends to play S&V game and Fed will destroy him with his passing shots! I think Feli is no challenge for Fed!

    Don’t think Fed is hurt though! He’s simply overplayed and it hurts his age…but with such weak opponents even Fed who makes 60+ UEs can advance! Fed still hitting high number of winners…

    • He said the back was still a little iffy against Tiafoe and that’s why he was moving gingerly. I don’t think Fed aged that much since Wimbledon. The back is definitely affecting him.

  4. Who’s the lowest ranked player left? This tournament has been so topsy turvy you might want to put some money on him!

    And what makes anyone assume that Rafa is immune to injury and nerves?

  5. Anyone watching Rafa v Daniel?

    Thank goodness I picked Rafa to win the title. err, maybe… I have never watched this guy Daniel play.

    • yup, I am watching Ratcliff!

      Rafa has come out playing SO MUCH better today. He is hitting his forehand more aggressively and of course more cleanly. I see significant improvement in all aspects of his game so far.

      This lad Daniel has done a remarkable job so far to hang with Rafa.

    • No kidding vr! Daniel with a serve weapon would be dangerous. He’s hanging with Rafa.

      What? Daniel breaks…

      Rafa better step on it fast!

  6. Never mind Cilic might be the title favorite. All I know is if this doesn’t justify the fact that this US Open is the craziest then I don’t know what does. One set to love Daniel. WHAT?!

  7. Rafa standing way outside the baseline. Looks like he is playing John Isner. The biggest irony of the game of tennis is that Rafa And Djoker both have two US open titles. Djoker is a hard court specialist whereas Rafa plays clay court tennis on hard courts. Fed with broken back should be more of a handful for Rafa provided they both meet.

      • Wait a sec. Am I the Fed fan?? I didn’t take a cheap shot at Rafa!! He’s losing to Taro Daniel I just expressed shock at it. Cilic absolutely crushed Mayer and looked highly impressive. Based off that performance it’s not crazy to put him ahead of Fedal as the favorite here if u look at their form as well. And Cilic seems healthy again based off his match against Mayer. I think he made a crazy smart move skipping the hard court masters.

  8. Okay, I did not see this coming. I was not watching every single point as I was busy assembling a shoe rack with my wife but I was watching enough to get the impression that Rafa was hitting quite well early on and had a lot of openings to break. He got tentative 4-4 onward and his forehand got safer as well.

    I also think Rafa must go for more on his first serve and not be safe with it as his second serve is holding up nicely against Daniel.

    I expect Rafa to win in 4 sets.

  9. Rafa’s forehand continues to regress. He is hitting a few good ones here and there but the metric I use – ‘average rally forehand’- has been on a decline since 4-4 set 1.

  10. Yep, Rafa in 4. But he is standing what appears like too far back for Daniel’s serve, isn’t he?

    Nice fh cc shots from Rafa. He’s putting more on them, too.

  11. Missing too many DTL backhands is putting pressure on his CC backhand now.

    The forehand needs a boost. It is too central at the moment and the hesitation has grown.

    Okay, a 0-30 hole now!

  12. Increasing hesitation on Rafa’s groundstrokes and growing confidence in his opponent’s play. Rafa down a set and a break in the second! SHIT!

    Daniel’s playing good but Rafa’s casual errors is the primary reason he is finding himself in this HOLE.

    • just don’t understand the growing hesitation when it comes to hitting the forehand :s The only shot he is hitting well and consistently is the CC backhand.

      Okay 2 BP’s for Rafa. BREAK BACK!

  13. BEST FOREHAND OF THE MATCH and not a bad time to hit it! Sizzling forehand DTL winner to break back. 2-2! NO more brakes for the Rafa Express, ok?

  14. Daniel leading is even more shocking when u look at the guys latest results. He was playing like garbage heading into this tourney!! Rafa with the. Real back I would be surprised if he doesn’t get some momentum and take off here.

    • Yeah, I didn’t pick Daniel to win a round. I still think of him on the challenger circuit. This is my first good look at him. Impressive, surprising competitor. He isn’t coughing up blood yet! It makes my lungs burn watching Daniel.

  15. Nadal CC Backhand has been consistently beautiful.

    Everything else……

    Daniel isn’t even playing that good.

    Nadal is just unable to finish points or convert BP.

    Wake up Rafa 🙁

    • yep. Even though CC backhand is strong, the predictability is reducing its effect. Daniel is pinned in his forehand corner to anticipate and returns with CC forehands until he gets an opening to attack Rafa’s forehand.

      That was a confident inside-out forehand winner to win the game. He needs to improve his inside-out forehand RIGHT NOW or he will find himself down 2 sets to love.

      COME ON RAFA!

    • That’s what I see. Beautiful form from Rafa — but his mind isn’t all there – 100%

      He shouldn’t have lost the first set. That gave Daniel too much hope.

  16. All Rafa needs is to win this second set and the order will be restored! He will immediately start hitting more consistently and making less UEs.

    Vamos Champ!

    • I hope so , Natashao. Just can’t be 100% certain these days with Rafa. His forehand can lose consistency midway through sets for no reason :/

      Anyway, let’s be optimistic! Vamos Rafa! He has surely played better to turn this around here.

  17. FINALLY he unleashes his forehands inside-out and goes for the corners. He utterly dominated from the baseline in this game. 2-1 !

  18. How much better is Rafa over anyone else left in this tournament 😀

    There’s no one.

    Nny, wherever you are, I hope you are watching!

    • rc,

      You are not going to believe this, but I just came back on here to post and I read your comment! We must be on the same wavelength!

      I started watching after the second set. I just got so freaked out that I had to stop for a while.

      I am very relieved to see that Rafa has gotten it together. He needs to get this done in four sets.

      Thanks for caring!
      ?

  19. Rafa is fine now. This is all a confidence thing. Once Rafa gets it, he will be unbeatable.
    The only problem is that he is likely to start most matches playing like this unless he gets a break.

  20. The lower half of my bracket is destroyed. Sascha was supposed to go deep, as was Muller. Trying to think which one from the bottom half will make it to the final, hmm….Querrey? Shapovalov? Pouille?

    Daniel is showing a little energy. Nice hold for the kid.

    • I agree! I won’t relax until Rafa gets a break! He need to keep up the pressure and get this done in four sets!

      This kid seems to have a second wind. I think maybe Rafa needed a match where he had to come from behind. But he has to finish the job!

      • Okay the kid double faulted away the break! Now hold your serve Rafa!

        I don’t want to see Rafa lose this opportunity. His draw has opened up and he’s got a ticket to the semifinals.

    • Look at Daniel tho, he can barely stand up, lol. It was a miracle for him to get that one strong serve game. He’s done now.

      But I hope to see more of him down the road. 🙂

  21. Rafa needs to get a break! He can get nervous towards the end of this set and Daniel is raising his level and seems ready to give it his all in the fourth,.,

  22. All in, Rafa needs to certainly improve his level. Good thing is he’s still in the draw. He needs to get the 3rd set forehand more regularly.

  23. Looks like even tho Daniel has, for the most part, run out of gas, he’s still smiling, giving his best and enjoying the moment playing Rafa Nadal. Good sport, good attitude. I like him.

  24. 5-2! Rafa to serve it out for 6-2. The last two sets have been very encouraging. The opponent is a bit gassed out in the 4th but the fearhand is relentless now.

  25. The kid is fighting until the last. There are plenty of guys like Tomic who would just give up.

    It’s a good tune up for Rafa…really enjoyed that one. Vamos Rafa!

  26. Nadal wins 40% because he is a better player today, 60% because he is much stronger physically.

    If Daniel sustains the same stamina as Rafa, it would be competitive 5 sets with Rafa still wining.

  27. Yes! Bravo Rafa! Two down! ?

    Daniel seems like a very nice kid! He certainly has the potential! Rafa needs to fine tune his game, but the last two sets were really good showing! Hope Rafa continues to improve!

    Vamos Rafa!

    • Thank God Rafa won! Now I have a day to recover!

      Hopefully this is what Rafa needed to get his rhythm and groove with his groundstrokes. Coming from behind and finishing strong should help give him confidence.

      Now I can get some sleep!

  28. Rafa is the crushing favorite to win USO for Bing.

    During 1R,

    Fed had a 26% chance to win (highest), Rafa followed at 22%

    After 1R,

    Nadal took the lead with 25%, Federer 21%

    Now,

    Nadal has a 41% chance of winning the USO, and Fed has a 19-20% chance.

    Bing you know how to pick well ;).

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