U.S. Open R1 previews and predictions: Rune vs. Nakashima, Bublik vs. Shang

Seeds Holger Rune and Alexander Bublik will be in action on the first day of the 2024 U.S. Open. Monday’s schedule will see Rune go up against Brandon Nakashima, while Bublik kicks off his campaign against Jerry Shang.

(15) Holger Rune vs. Brandon Nakashima

Rune and Nakashima will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they clash in round one of the U.S. Open on Monday. Surprisingly, Nakashima has won both of their previous meetings; in four sets at the 2021 NextGen ATP Finals and 6-0, 6-2 at the 2023 Shanghai Masters. Rune was wildly out of sorts last fall, but he is in pretty good form at the moment. The 15th-ranked Dane has won multiple matches at four consecutive events, including a fourth-round performance at Wimbledon and a recent semifinal run at the Cincinnati Masters.

Nakashima is also playing well, coming off a third-round effort in Cincinnati as a qualifier (beat Denis Shapovalov and Tommy Paul before falling to Andrey Rublev). However, the 48th-ranked American has been past the third round of a Grand Slam only once (Wimbledon fourth round in 2022). Rune, on the other hand, is a three-time major quarterfinalist and has advanced to fourth rounds on three other occasions. In this situation, Rune looks to be on his way to a first-ever win over Nakashima.

Pick: Rune in 4

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Jerry Shang vs. (27) Alexander Bublik

Shang is a bit of a question mark heading into New York. When healthy he has played well this summer, but an on-again, off-again back injury has prevented him from making real progress. The 19-year-old from China reached the Eastbourne quarterfinals as a qualifier, the Wimbledon second round, and the Atlanta semis as a qualifier before retiring in the Washington, D.C. second round.

Up first for Shang is Bublik, who dominated their only previous encounter 6-4, 6-1 in Indian Wells earlier this season. Unfortunately for the 27th-ranked Kazakh, he has cooled off in a big way since playing well in February, March, and April. He has lost his opening match at three of his last four tournaments and has won multiple matches in just one of his last seven (a third-round showing at the All-England Club). Including qualies, Bublik is a mere 4-6 lifetime in 10 U.S. Open matches. If–and only if–Shang is 100 percent, he has a great chance to pull off a minor upset.

Pick: Shang in 4

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