U.S. Open QF previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Pouille

According to ranking and seed, not a single Frenchman was expected to reach the U.S. Open quarters. Instead, three in the top half of the draw alone have advanced that far. They will be back in action on Tuesday along with Novak Djokovic.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (9) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Djokovic and Tsonga will be squaring off for the 22nd time in their careers when they clash in the quarterfinals on the U.S. Open on Tuesday. The head-to-head series stands at 15-6 in favor of Djokovic, who once trailed Tsonga 5-2 but is 10-1 in their last 11 matches dating back to 2011. They have faced each other once this season, with the top-ranked Serb getting the job done 7-6(2), 7-6(2) in the quarters of the Indian Wells Masters.

Even though Djokovic is No. 1 in the 2016 race to London and the defending champion of this event, he headed into New York as a bit of a question mark. The 29-year-old lost early at Wimbledon to Sam Querrey and right away at the Rio Olympics to Juan Martin Del Potro amidst concerns of a slight wrist injury. But a routine first week may have been just what the doctor ordered for Djokovic, who got a walkover from Jiri Vesely and a retirement from Mikhail Youzhny in addition to wins over Jerzy Janowicz and Kyle Edmund. Tsonga has advanced by taking out Guido Andreozzi, James Duckworth, Kevin Anderson, and Jack Sock. The 11th-ranked Frenchman is now a three-time U.S. Open quarterfinalist, but he has never reached the semis. Djokovic raised his level considerably against Edmund, so there is reason to believe he will continue his recent mastery of this matchup.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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(10) Gael Monfils vs.
(24) Lucas Pouille

What a sport tennis is. On Wednesday of the first week, Pouille was one Marco Chiudinelli service hold from losing in the second round in straight sets to an opponent ranked No. 144 in the world. Four days later, Pouille found himself in the quarterfinals of the season’s final Grand Slam after stunning Rafael Nadal in a five-set thriller. The 22-year-old Frenchman’s 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(6) victory marked a third consecutive match in which he went the distance, having previously outlasted Chiudinelli and Roberto Bautista Agut in five (4-6, 3-6, 7-6(6), 6-2, 6-0 and 3-6, 7-5, 2-6, 7-5, 6-1). Through four rounds, Pouille–who opened with a four-set defeat of Mikhail Kukushkin–has contested 19 of 20 possible sets. The world No. 25 now owns 25 of his 40 career ATP-level match wins this season and he is expected to reach 18th in the rankings even if he loses his next match.
Pouille wins 1
Speaking of five-setters, up next for Pouille on Tuesday is an all-French affair with Monfils. Their only previous showdown came in the first round of last year’s Australian Open, won by Monfils 6-7(3), 3-6, 6-4 6-1, 6-4. The world No. 12 has left the five-set drama this fortnight entirely to his younger countryman; in fact, he has not even surrendered a single set through four rounds. Monfils has maintained his awesome, no-nonsense 2016 form by crushing Gilles Muller, Jan Satral, Nicolas Almagro, and Marcos Baghdatis. His 39-11 record for the year includes the biggest title of his career in Washington, D.C. and it has him in serious World Tour Finals contention. A healthy, motivated Monfils may be the last opponent someone coming off three consecutive five-setters wants to play.

Pick: Monfils in 3

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78 Comments on U.S. Open QF previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Pouille

  1. Djoker in 5?? Really Benny? Nah, have him in 4 on my side…

    Monfils looks a completely different specimen this year, so focused and its paying off. Monfils in 3

  2. I think he will be highly motivated to prove himself against his countryman. Patrick said this guy is very humble, a very hard worker and very ambitious. Remember when Rafa had all of that going for him as well as youth?

  3. I have not seen Gael play yet this tournament so I won’t underestimate him either. I have no idea who will win and I’m not ashamed to admit it.

  4. Tsonga in 4 and Monfils in 4.

    Tsonga is playing well here and I think he will press hard for the win. Djoko looked less impressive this USO.

    Pouille can take a set but Monfils will beat him in 4 as Monfils is fresh, determined, serious, quick, fearless and he’s not going to play defensive tennis after watching Pouille vs Rafa; he will play more like his MC final this year, I feel.

  5. I can’t pick against Novak, even if he is not at his best right now. That British player had nothing to challenge him the other night. So it was easy pickings for Novak.

    Tsonga has looked good, but I don’t know that he can beat Novak here. I can see him making a match of it and getting a set. But this is the time when we see Novak raise his level of play. I just don’t think Tsonga will be able to get the win.

  6. just had a quick look at live scores and gael is marmalising lucas in predictable fashion. probably lucas is tired but nontheless this is utterly depressing. i looked at the stats and gael is doing very well on ros which makes rafa’s failure in that department all the more glaring.
    that’s 3 five setter losses back to back in the last 3 slams for rafa.

    • Rafa made Lucas look better than he was. Remember, he struggled over five sets to beat journeyman Chiudinelli and RBA before he got to Rafa.

      This result is no surprise at all.

      • Hawkeye,

        I think that I have to agree with you. Rafa does have a way of making his opponents look better than they are.

        It doesn’t make me feel better to see Monfils handle Pouille so easily. It makes me think of what might have been.

        However, I did think that this was where it would all catch up to Pouille. Three give setters and taking out Rafa is still not an easy task.

  7. agreed. that’s what i think. do you remember the day the draw came out i asked you and benny about pouille as i had identified this as a possible rafa choke match? you both said pouille wouldn’t beat rafa unless he was uptight and making mistakes. that’s what happened.
    as soon as a slam draw comes out you can look at the early round matches and see immediately which match rafa might slip up on.

      • It is really bittersweet watching this match. I can’t help but think how much more entertaining it would have been with Rafa there. I like to believe that even after a five set match, Rafa would have put up more of a fight.

        This just punctuates the disappointment of Rafa letting these matches get away from him. I think the fans sure would have preferred to see Rafa there.

        How amazing is it that Monfils can make Pouille look so ordinary.

        ?

        • i have been working late again so not watching. but i am feeling awfully cross about things right now. we keep hearing about how gr8 nando, fog and lucas played. but the real common denominator is rafa making players look a whole lot better than they really are.

        • If its Rafa that Pouille was playing in this match after Pouille’s five sets match in the previous round, Rafa would also look good, or even better than Monfils. Rafa had done all the hard work for the benefit of Pouille’s next opponent.

      • i am not trying to big myself up hawks. i am just really upset by all this. if i can pick out the dangers time and time again. dustin, nando, lucas – then why can’t rafa’s elite team be seeing them and handling them in advance? it’s ridiculous.

        • I know you weren’t Amy.

          But you were right to be concerned.

          Leave the bigging myself up to me. It’s what I do da best!

          Rafa has a mental problema and while much improved from where he was last year, Ricky’s pal Ben Rothenburg definitely touched a nerve when he asked Rafa about feeling pressure in slams.

          It is still a big issue for him as Tiggy and others have intimated.

          • hahaha hawks thanks for the jokes. really cheers me up.
            of couse i agree with all that. i am sure you know that is what i think…but saying it on site leads to attacks…

          • Bah the truth sometimes hurts Amy but one of the instigators has promised to leave.

            Attacks and made up stories about being factually incorrect won’t stop me from saying it like I see it. Especially given the source(s).

          • i once listened to one of ben and courtney’s podcasts. they are utterly insane! tennis nerds mixed in with grazia or hello magazine….they went on and on about players i have never heard of and who they were dating and best friends with.
            i had to switch it off before i went mad myself.
            just sayin’

          • I do feel Rafa is/was nervous at the slams esp at same stages during the slams where he failed in his recent past ie in 2015. I feel come 2017 AO, he will be very nervous in R1, thats how Rafa function!

            I think failing at R4 would dampen his confidence again and yes he succumb to pressure at the slams despite he refusing to acknowledge it, imo. If he couldnt fix this nervous issue, he will find it very hard to cross over the finishing line once a match gets tight. I mean losing all three five setters on three occasions at the slams certainly tells us something is not right with Rafa up there, esp when he was in winning positions in all those matches!

            Unless Rafa plays lightout tennis and beats everyone comfortably ( which I think will not happen), he’s bound to run into some souls who are on fire and force the issue to go the distance, and then …. the same old story unfolds.

            For his sake, I really do hope he can come out all guns blazing at the slams, dont care who’s across the net, just attacks and attacks to get the win and see how far he can go; just leave the point construction, hard thinking before each serve, etc behind and reserve them for the clay courts.

  8. If Tsonga can use his backhand slice smartly and set up his big forehands (esp inside-out), he can do some real damage. But, can’t see him beating Djokovic over 5 sets here. Tsonga’s worst slam and Djokovic doesn’t even have to be at 100% to beat him to be honest.

    However, it is true that this is the first real challenge for Djokovic and will tell us where is level right now. He has hardly played so far lol

    • Tsonga is not a very smart player, full stop. He just doesnt learn a thing or two after playing so many matches against Djoko. He’s not going to win getting pinned at his BH corner engaging in CC BH exchanges with Djoko. Move your legs Jo, for goodness sake! And move forward, especially!

  9. I really like Monfils, so it’s great to see him get to the semis. He is playing some brilliant tennis. He finally got serious and decided to play the way so many always thought he should. He is such a gifted athlete. Now he’s playing like it and not the circus clown.

    I do think that Monfils can give Novak a battle, assuming he gets by Tsonga.

      • Well you can only play who you meet in the draw. Monfils has looked good all year and has a solid record. So it’s not only about who he has played so far, but how he is playing overall.

        • Didn’t say it was the only thing but it is a big factor.

          He’s just 2-5 vs top 10 this year and was smoked 6-3 6-2 by Nole in Toronto.

          So maybe he gets a set at best IMO but maybe not.

          • One can just as easily said who has Novak played! It’s like he just coasted through. That could be a good or bad thing. But then, he has proven himself through the last two years and that’s why I am not about to write him off here.

            I didn’t realize that Monfils doesn’t have a great record against top ten players. I guess we will have to see.

            I think both Tsonga and Monfils have lacked mental strength. They are athletic and have the game, but not the mental toughness and belief. They both have also been quite injury prone throughout their careers.

      • Gael may not beat Djoko but may put up a better fight against Djoko than this Tsonga does. Its a shame that Sock got beaten by this Tsonga, at least Sock could serve better, hit harder and makes Djoko works harder for the win.

        • I certainly hope that Monfils can put up more of a fight than Tsonga!

          I don’t think that Sock could have done much better.

          • At least he could make Djoko work harder, unlike Tsonga who simply sticked to a losing game plan ( or was there any game plan in the first place?). Tsonga never changes, still playing the same way against Djoko the 100th times they meet/met!

    • PMac was going with “Lopezes”. On twitter during the RG final people were calling them the Lopez “brothers”. Anyway, they have indeed “Vamosed” and I actually got to see a bit of it on USA tv, between it being the Bryans and the last match on the present Louis Armstrong stadium. Tennis loves a bit of history. For the record the match also featured a couple rain delays, the last on Louis Armstrong.

  10. As expected Lucas was a piece of cake for LaMonf…that’s the way it goes with those who get in the spotlight by beating Rafa…

    Honestly, Lucas should have never beaten Rafa…it was Rafa with his exaggerated respect for every opponent instilled back at his young age which put Lucas on the pedestal making him look better than he was..,it was Rafa’s tentative and defensive game which made Lucas seem as extraordinary aggressive player…and finally it was Rafa playing not to lose instead of playing to win…the same old story over and over again…

    • Agree with you there Nat. Rafa is playing with a ‘fear to lose’ or ‘not to lose’ mentality. I do find practising against these players makes him respect their game more than he should.

      Rafa’s failure in this winnable match was due to him getting nervous at clutch moments, fearing losing the point to hand the adv to his opponent. The once clutch player that we know has left the house. In the past even when he wasnt playing well he could still fight and win these clutch matches, now even when he’s the better player (at least in three out of five sets) he still managed to lose.

      • Even in his biography, Rafa said he used fear of losing as a motivation which I’d always found troubling but figured if it worked, it worked. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

        Well, it’s now broke for over two years (exacerbated admittedly by other extenuating circumstances admittedly but it is a BIG part of the problem IMO).

    • natashao..your sentence about ‘rafa with his exaggerated respect for every opponent instilled at his young age which put Lucas on the pedestal making him seem better than he was….’
      is exactly what i think and have indeed said many times. you put it very well. i don’t see how rafa is going to win slam matches in the future with this mindset. that’s why i have wanted him so much to see a sports pschologist, mind coach whatever they call it to try and change this way of thinking. because until it stops or is modified then i don’t see that anything that is done on the practice court is going to help. actually i wish he would practice less and spare his body.

  11. Getting the feeling that Nole is playing possum. Every once in awhile he lets his true form show (and it’s very good) but he’s trying to do as little as possible and still win. And Tsonga’s unable or unwilling to put much into it.

    ho hum.

    • I wonder about Novak. He really did not lion good in his first match. Then he got a walkover and a retirement. I do think he called for the trainer in the match with Edmunds. But maybe not playing much as what he needed if he was having some lingering problem.

      I think Novak knows what he has to do to beat Tsonga. He seems pretty comfortable out there. Tsonga is helping of course by just hitting balls and not really pressuring Novak.

      I do think that Novak is doing just enough to win, maybe feeling as though he doesn’t have to push himself to beat Tsonga.

    • Better luck with the matches tomorrow, right?
      Hope Kei can put up a fight, Pliskova, Halep…Delpo and Stan.
      Or just give up, order ESPN3 and watch juniors…

  12. Whoa, all anti- climatic matches we have today. Even for the two matches that were without injuries, there were just no sparks, the ‘losers’ lost tamely! What a day for tennis, this one!

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