U.S. Open QF previews and picks: Federer vs. Monfils, Berdych vs. Cilic

FedA semifinal spot will be at stake when Roger Federer goes up against Gael Monfils on Thursday at the U.S. Open. Tomas Berdych and Marin Cilic also have a huge opportunity ahead of them in New York.

(20) Gael Monfils vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Monfils will be facing each other for the 10th time in their careers and for the second time this summer when they collide in the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open on Thursday night. A recent Cincinnati showdown went Federer’s way 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 as the Swiss improved to 7-2 lifetime in the head-to-head series. Interestingly, Federer has actually fared better against Monfils on clay (4-0) than on hard courts (3-2). They have squared off three times at Grand Slams–all at the French Open–and Federer is a perfect 3-0.

Monfils, though, is arguably playing the best and most focused tennis of his life this fortnight. The 24th-ranked Frenchman was the only player other than Novak Djokovic to go through the first four rounds without dropping a single set. He ousted Jared Donaldson, Alejandro Gonzalez, Richard Gasquet, and Grigor Dimitrov all in straight sets. Federer has advanced with victories over Marinko Matosevic, Sam Groth, Marcel Granollers, and Roberto Bautista Agut while surrendering just one set to Granollers in the process. Will Monfils’ believe he can beat a 17-time major champion who is coming off a title in Cincinnati? His attitude so far in New York suggests he does, but the majority of his past history against Federer indicates he does not.

Pick: Federer in 3

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(6) Tomas Berdych vs. (14) Marin Cilic

Berdych and Cilic will be clashing for the ninth time in their careers on Thursday. The head-to-head stands at 5-3 in Berdych’s favor, but Cilic won their most recent meeting 7-6(5), 6-4, 7-6(6) earlier this summer in the Wimbledon third round. Berdych has won three of their four previous hard-court encounters, including with a 6-4, 6-2 blowout in this year’s Rotterdam final. Cilic, though, was still just coming back from a four-month suspension late in 2013 and he is now playing some of the best tennis of his life. The 16th-ranked Croat is 44-16 for the season following victories in Flushing Meadows over Marcos Baghdatis, Illya Marchenko, Kevin Anderson, and Gilles Simon.

This is already by far Berdych’s best hard-court tournament of the summer. After his loss to Cilic at the All-England Club, the seventh-ranked Czech bowed out early from Washington, D.C., Toronto, and Cincinnati. So far this fortnight, however, he has battled past Lleyton Hewitt, Martin Klizan, Teymuraz Gabashvili, and Dominic Thiem. Berdych went to five sets with Klizan, but the other three matches were straight-set routs. The No. 6 seed capitalized on an inexperience opponent on Tuesday and hit both Hewitt and Gabashvili off the court. He will not be able to do either against Cilic, who has the edge in form between two players whose styles are extremely similar.

Pick: Cilic in 5

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99 Comments on U.S. Open QF previews and picks: Federer vs. Monfils, Berdych vs. Cilic

  1. Fed in straight sets? Really Ricky? Come on! You don’t think Monfils can get one set off him? If Monfils comes out and plays the way he’s been playing in his previous matches, he can definitely take at least one set. I think this match could be quite entertaining.

    I am not sure about Berdy vs. Cilic. I didn’t think that a Simon playing very well could push Cilic to five sets. He’s a dangerous player who has the game to take it to a top ten player like Berdy. But I am not sure it’s going to happen. I am on the fence with this one. I do think that this one will go four or five sets. Cilic certainly could win if he plays his best. Berdy has been known to fold when the going gets tough.

  2. I think Fed will aim for a straight sets victory, Monfils should aim for the exact opposite i.e. stretch the match to 5 and see if Fed holds up. I hope Monfils’s approach is serious….

    Fed in 4.

  3. Monfils is going to have to come out and play like he means it. He’s been doing it in his previous matches. He needs to be focused and also needs to keep it together emotionally. He had a meltdown in the match with Dimitrov, probably due to the awful weather conditions. But he has to go out and play the way he’s been playing. He’s got the game to make this a match.

    It’s going to be at night so the conditions should be good. So far Fed hasn’t really faced anyone who could challenge him. That should change tonight. I hope Monfils plays the way he is capable of playing.

    I am still on the fence with Berdy/Cilic. It could go either way.

  4. I believe Monfils can make a match of this but his problem is he gives way too much respect to Roger, like most players do by the way (except for you now who!) but if he treats Roger like just another tennis player he can give Roger fits bcos Monfils tracks down everything, and Roger hates when his delicious shots come back, like Rafa does to him!
    With respect to Berd/Cilic match, I find that Berdych is playing very well, best I have seen him play in a while. Cilic is playing wll too but he seems a bit hesistant at times, needs more aggression, so the Bird might edge him out!

    All in all, I am hoping for some great tennis. Wishing these guys all the best! It would be nice though if the other tennis players make it to the finals instead of Roger and Novak!

      • Ehm, hawkeye63, I respectfully submit that your avatar looks desperate at best and hilarious at worst. It’s clear who you want to lose but it ain’t happening to the guy you are showcasing.

        Just accept, it is a foregone conclusion and quietly revert to the Serb avatar……….

        Thank you.

      • Duly noted. Request denied.

        I can only support Djokovic for limited periods. Usually for just a match at a time for strategic reasons. This was a personal best (some might say worst) for Me.

        I will support pretty much anyone playing against Fed. I do not apologize for this.

        bap-Bap-BAP-Bap-bap-bap-bap-bap-badabaaaahhhhhhhh!!!!

        ALLEZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  5. I finally decided to go with Berdy over Cilic. You never know for sure with Berdy, but I believe that he’s been playing very well. Cilic was kind of up and down in the match with Simon. I do think the match will go four or five sets.

    I hope that Monfils doesn’t give respect to Fed in their match tonight. I hope he comes out focused and ready. I remember a while back someone said that Monfils didn’t seem to want to win as much as have a good time on the court. It looks like that may have changed. He’s got the shots and the game to take it to anyone, so it would be nice to see him play the way he is capable of playing. At least make Fed work for it.

  6. The only people who can beat Roger are Rafa, Nole and Andy, but there is even a question mark over Andy beating the top 3 atm. It’s not impossible for Roger to lose to anyone else, but the odds are not great.

    Kei seems to have fitness problems so I’m almost sure Nole will go through to the final with Roger and I think Roger will win his 18th slam.

    • I am hard pressed to see Roger beating Novak in best of five!! But at any rate, I see now Cilic is taking Berdych to the wood shed!!! Ah, tennis……who knows?!!

  7. I was surprised at how poorly Berdy played. I thought for sure the match would be more competitive. Cilic did play great tennis and his serve was really on. Good for him.

    I am hoping for a good match tonight with Fed and Monfils.

  8. Did everybody hear the loud AW F*C$ from Federer at 0-1 in the second set? Only Fedal can get away with this stuff. No warning no red or yellow card no point penalty nothing. Allez Monfils.

  9. ^^Yes, I heard it. But lots of players get away with it. The F bombs were flowing from Andy last night, and Stan lets loose with them regularly, including his last match. They weren’t penalized either. (And no, I’m not rooting for Roger. I’m rooting for Gael). The statement “only Fedal can get away with this stuff” is simply untrue.

    • @jpacnw,

      Yes, I heard it, too. But as you said so well, many players curse during matches. In fact, last night the ESPN commies had to urge the audience not to lip read when Murray went to the sidelines and they had a close up of him. Then they cut away! LOL!

      It’s just more of the same old, same old from someone who is more of a Fedal hater than a true tennis fan.

  10. Gael!!!!! 2 sets down, 1 to go. Hope he doesn’t collapse mentally as he sometimes does. He seems to be more focused this tournament, though. The wind is keeping Roger from playing his usual game. Can’t paint the lines or go for any of his precision shots. Gael is able to track down the resulting conservative shots that Roger has to make. Hope Gael can keep this up.

  11. I really can’t see Monfils allowing Roger to win the next three sets after playing so well, and not having dropped a set……..that would simply be criminal!!!!! Hope he refocuses and win in three/four!!

  12. What made me mad was when the crowd actually applauded and cheered when Monfils double faulted in the third set. Then when Fed broke him, they went crazy. All I can say is that if this is a rent-a-crowd for Fed, then they are doing one heck of a job!

    The crowd is so behind Fed and it makes me furious. Monfils has played his heart out and really taken it to Fed tonight. He’s stayed focused and intense and just given it his all. That deserves respect, too.

    This is a nervous fourth set. Too tight for me. I don’t know if I can watch.

  13. I can’t believe it. Monfils had two match points and couldn’t do it. Now Fed won the fourth set and it’s going to a fifth. This is what I feared might happen.

    I am praying that Monfils can find a way to keep it together.

  14. What a comeback by the maestro though? Coming back from 2 sets to down is difficult under any circumstances but especially when you are 33 years old in a qf of a slam. It helped that the opponent was Monfils

  15. Good job by Roger to weather the storm and take it to 5 and then win. 3 out of 5 set tennis really exposes things like lack of mental toughness, fitness issues, and a host of other things that are more than just tennis skills. Gael just couldn’t sustain the high level. Roger’s play, while of course not being what it once was, is still impressive.

  16. Why does Monfils play tennis? Why do the French play tennis even? Why doesn’t he find something he actually can take seriously, like bird watching, because he is a waste of space where tennis is concerned! Acting the fool may be funny to some, it ain’t to me…..

  17. Of the original Top 5: Rafa, Roger, Novak and Muzza, I believe Roger has the worst record in best of five matches I.e. He loses more when taken to 5, and Monfils could not capitalize on that? What an idiot.

  18. Yeah, even I could not fathom how Monfils can just throw in the towel like that in the 5th set. Its almost like he is tanking. This was one of the most important matches of his life. And I do not think it was physical. Roger is 33 and he was dancing around the court. The match was barely 3 hours anyway.

  19. I saw Ricky’s twitter. When Fed was 2 MPs down, he tweeted that Fed was still going to save the MPs and win in 5! That prediction was much better than his prediction of the quarterfinal match.

  20. before the match I was saying to a friend who is a fed fan that Monfils will be very tough for federer and he can even win. He was taking monfils easy but i was sure this would be a battle. Monfils was out there to win and not just entertain the crowd. What happened after he squandered match points was shocking though. He was competing so well but then faded away. I guess he completely lost the self-belief after losing those match points.

    Berdych would have been the tougher opponent perhaps but Cilic would be tough for federer. Cilic’s mental game is an issue but otherwise, he will be a stern challenge.

    • @vamosrafa,

      I absolutely thought this would be a tough match. For one thing, Fed hadn’t been tested so far. This is the first guy he came up against who actually had the game to take it to him. Monfils did seem to be out there to win this time. I thought finally he had it together.

      I was afraid that after he couldn’t convert the match points, that he would fall apart. That’s exactly what happened.

      They had an interview with Cilic on ESPN after his victory over Berdy. He was talking about how Goran Ivanisevic had him change his service motion to make it harder to read. He played really well against Berdy and should be able to give Fed a match.

      • totally agreed…and oh, so Goran has made has serve difficult to read. Cilic has definitely made great inroads lately. He can have the problem of ‘overpressing’ and bei overaggressive though. I think he will be a very tough opponent for federer.

  21. I couldn’t even watch the fifth set. I sensed that when Fed evened it up and Monfils couldn’t capitalize on two match points, that it was over. But when you see someone like Kei Nishikori, who has worked on his game and fitness and just had no quit in him over two marathon back-to-back five set matches, that makes you realize the difference between him and someone like Monfils.

    He let that match just get away from him. It’s maddening. He does need a coach to instill some discipline and mental fortitude. But I don’t think he’s ever going to realize his potential. It was just so frustrating to watch it slip away out of his grasp. He should have been fighting just as hard in that fifth set, giving it his all.

  22. Sleep deprivation set in last night so I’ve only just watched the replay. Nothing but admiration for Roger hanging on in there. Agree with everybody who said once Monf let those match points slip away it was curtains for him. Roger knew it too. He was in far better shape physically than Gael and all he needed to do was wait for him to implode.

  23. Didn’t watch the match last night but just watched the re-play.Monfils threw the match away. First of all, he has to sort out his laces. He ties them so loosely that he has to keep tying them throughout the point and that can’t help his concentration.

    • I’ve always thought the re-lacing of his shoes was a ploy to give him a few seconds to catch his breath and/or compose himself between points. Now it verges on an OCD routine particularly when his service is in danger of being broken.

  24. Only Nole can stop him now.

    Last night, Fed made some horrible errors at times while playing brilliantly as well.

    Monfils held it together far longer than I thought he would.

    Two match points denied. I would have preferred that he lost in straight sets. I turned it off after that game. Done and dusted as Robbie K would say.

    I’m happy for Cilic improving his game under Goran’s tutelage.

    But his first slam semi appearance?

    Vs Fed??

    Against a shameless Federazzi crowd (similar, but not as bad as the FO crowd) that will proudly cheer Marin’s errors with aplomb???

    #DeerInHeadlights

    • I thought crowd supported both equally. You are just as bad as the Federazzi media imagining that even Federer’s opponent’s box cheer for Federer. Let’s face it, even his opponents want him to beat them more than they want to win. Why not?

      Thank heavens for Rafa who is the only one who doesn’t fall under the Federazzi spell.

      • Funny I didn’t hear any cheering of Fed’s unforced errors especially double faults but perhaps you were too busy counting likes on facebook when they loudly cheered Monfils DFs.

        #YoureWelcomeMyFan

    • I absolutely agree with this! I was ashamed at how the crowd behaved during the match. When Monfils double faulted to give Fed a chance to get a break in the third set, the crowd erupted in applause. I’ve never seen anything like it. Then when he hit his first serve into the net, they applauded again.

      Disgraceful! I have always been proud of my fellow New Yorkers, but they were an embarrassment last night.

  25. There’s no hope for Monfils:

    RT @SteveTignor : “Monfils on what he’ll tell his kids about this night: “Dad had a very good opportunity, and he did well.” #USOpen”

  26. RT @RedHotRafa : “Luck. Career built upon luck and lapdogs. I shiver at the timeline where Nadal never existed and Fraud decimated mugs for a decade.”

    Come back Rafa, save tennis…………

  27. RT @nycsandygirl: “ESPN match highlights just summarized the match calling it a legend vs a sideshow #rude #Federer #Monfils”

    #Federazzistan

  28. RT @AmyFetherolf : “By reaching the semis, Fed moved up one spot to No. 2 in the ATP Race, passing Rafa. Djokovic still w/ a comfortable lead over everyone.”

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