U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Rublev

Rafael Nadal has not yet faced a seeded opponent at this U.S. Open and the trend will continue on Wednesday when he goes up against Andrey Rublev during quarterfinal action.

Unsurprisingly, this is the first head-to-head showdown between the two competitors. After all, Rublev is just 19 years old and had won only 12 career ATP-level matches prior to this season–including zero at majors. The Russian has already doubled his victory total in 2017 alone with 15, a number that includes his first title as a lucky loser in Umag. Rublev also laid the groundwork for this breakthrough Grand Slam by qualifying at both the French Open (pushed fellow U.S. Open quarterfinalist Diego Schwartzman to 9-7 in the fifth set) and Wimbledon (beat Stefano Travaglia in five before losing to Albert Ramos-Vinolas in five). The world No. 53 has advanced in New York by taking out Aljaz Bedene, Grigor Dimitrov, Damir Dzumhur, and David Goffin.

Even with a more difficult draw, Rublev has actually dropped fewer sets (one to Dzumhur) than Nadal. The top-seeded Spaniard beat Dusan Lajovic in straights, recovered from a set down against both Taro Daniel and Leonardo Mayer, and then raised his level considerably in a 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 rout of Alexandr Dolgopolov on Monday afternoon. Thus Nadal is through to his first U.S. Open quarterfinal since he captured a second title back in 2013.

“He’s the real champion,” Rublev said the world No. 1. “I’m just going to enjoy it. It’s the quarterfinals and I have nothing to lose”

Nadal disagreed.

“Of course he’s young, but at the same time he’s in quarterfinals. He has a chance to be in the semifinals for the first time [in] his career. So of course he has things to lose. And of course I have things to lose and things to win. Of course I understand what he said. He’s a great guy. He [was] in Mallorca practicing with me a couple of years ago. But overall, when you are young sometimes you have this point of view. At the end of the day, of course you have things to lose.”

And lose is almost certainly what Rublev is going to do on Wednesday. Aside from Dimitrov, the youngster has benefited from a favorable draw so far at Flushing Meadows (Goffin was far less than 100 percent in the fourth round). Nadal’s path has been a friendly one, too, but his continues with a fifth consecutive opponent outside the top 50. Rublev’s road, on the other hand, now becomes exponentially more difficult.

Combine the guy on the other side of the net with the pressure of by far the biggest match of his young career and Rublev’s run may come to an end after three sets.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 12 games or fewer

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208 Comments on U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Rublev

    • Wow,Wow,Wow! Stop there! Querry is not even in the Semi’s, how can he play PCB? Anderson “the gentle African Giant”!lol, is the one gonna play PCB!

      Nadal beats Rublev in 3. The young gun can take more than 10 games and push the over! Rublev knows Nadal’s game as he practiced with Nadal in Mallorca! Rublev, is young, tall and very talented and can trouble Nadal a lot! Rublev can steal from 10 games to a set!

      Anyone feel the same?

      FINALS ?- Federer beats Nadal in 3 or 4 sets! Any doubts, ask Stan “the man”!lol

  1. i havent watched much of Nadal but it sounds like he’s in the type of form that only proven granbd slam pedigree can give him a competitive match.

    If Nadal wasnt in such scintillating form i’d probably be tempted to give Rublev a chance based on his results.

    Straight sets victories against Dimitrov, Goffin and Bedene is nothing to sneeze at but he’s up against arguably the greatest competitor of all time and he’s only 19.

    This sounds like a 4 set victory to Rafa me but wouldnt be surprised if something crazy happened based on this kid’s mental strength and obvious potential

    Rafa in 4.

      • That’s why I picked Dolgopolov to beat him I thought Alex would be big step up and catch a slow starting Rafa off guard. Little did I know Dolgopolov would hit a bunch of stupid errors early and give up after two games LOL. Either way Rafa should still win this comfortably. Draw couldn’t be better for him.

      • I havent watched him, was just going off what everyone was saying during the Dolgopolov match. Thanks for the confirmation. Rublev might have a chance then.

  2. I haven’t seen much from Rublev that makes me think he’ll seriously trouble Nadal in this one. He hits hard, but also seems to make a fair number of errors. However, if his shots are falling he could give Rafa a test. I think he’ll run out of gas before that happens; he’s already played a lot of matches here. Still, it is true that he’s beaten some very good players in straights, so he shouldn’t be underestimated.

  3. Incredible that Nadal will play his first 5 rounds without having to face a player in the top 50. Probably the easiest slam draw ever, until the SF.

    • LOLOLOLOL it’s because Fed and US Open night sessions go hand in hand. Fed is typically a primetime player at any tournaments with night matches cuz to most he is considered the term I shall not say in order to avoid chaos.

      • Rafa DOES NOT LIKE night matches and Fed does, so they both get what they want. I remember a few years ago at the USO, Rafa complained bitterly about playing at night all the time. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rafa hasn’t requested daytime since the WC qualifying matches are taking place now and he loves his football.

        • I agree with Nadline. I was hoping they give Rafa the day match because Rafa loves the sun, and so I get my wish (I think Rafa too gets his wish). No complaint from me about day match for Rafa; I just hope he comes out all ready for Rublev and gets his win asap and conserves his energy while doing so, no more wobbling.

          Let Fed gets his night match and all the adulations given to him, I don’t care. I just want Rafa to win his matches and that’s the most important.

        • Yes, Rafa enjoys the sun but if he makes it past Rublev (which he will, Inshallah) he will have no choice but to deal with night conditions. If Fed beats Delpo (which he will), night match is guaranteed, the final is always at night.

          Rafa may not like the night matches but he has to quickly acclimatize to them to improve his chances.

          • The final is at 4pm, not at night. It’s only the AO that has the final at night at 7pm.

            The men’s SFs start at 4pm, one after the other; I don’t think they have one at 4pm and another at 7pm kind of thing. It depends on how soon Anderson/PCB can finish their SF (I assume their SF starts first). The second SF may start late afternoon or early evening or even at night but will definitely finish at night barring retirement of course.

          • Oh okay, thought the final was a night affair. That final where Rafa Djoko he was in his night match, all black kit, that’ts what made me think it was a default night match.

            Anderson is not one for long rallies, he will keep it short against PCB so that semi may finish early then.

            Inshallah!

    • Is it a lkeg up for Fed or is it the Fed – Delpo rating blockbuster naturally more fit for the night session?
      Let’s put our whole brain at work, not only the fan part of it.

      • @Denzel

        Fed vs Kholshreiber was a blockbuster for you?
        Fed vs Lopez was a blockbuster for you?
        Fed could be playing a dead squirrel and that would count as a blockbuster for you deserving of a night match. Not so much for some of us.

        Just because your brain’s missing some essential parts doesn’t mean our’s are too……

        • Chill hahah. He wasn’t referring to prior rounds. He’s talking about Del Po vs Fed and that’s a WAY better matchup aka more blockbuster. Refer to US Open final 2009 please.

          • Persuade me with arguments please Benny G, not assertions. Delpo’s crocked, he will not offer any resistance. The Delpo of 2017 is not the Delpo of 2009. As I said, if nostalgia is all you are going with then they might as well wheel out Marat Safin……..

          • Or I’ll put it like this. 19 time grand slam champ who won Wimbledon and AO this year vs last years olympic finalist and former US Open champion and world number 30 or 15 time slam champ and French open champ vs a guy who half the crowd will have never heard of before watching him?

  4. In sports everything is possible but this will be extremely difficult, maybe one upset.
    Andrey Rublev can win but i am not 100% confident because the potential of FEDAL meeting in the semis can be an extra motivation.

    Andrey Rublev will definitely win more than 12 games this young &talented player can even win 2 sets or 1 set but if he is as bold as i am, fearless & ambitious then-

    Andrey Rublev will win in 3 sets or 5 sets not in 4 sets.
    If he starts playing well early and takes the 1st set GAME OVER.
    Game, set & match Andrey Rublev wins in 3 or 5 sets.

    I don’t want Rafito to meet R. Federer because i know that he(Rafa) would lose the match in 3 sets or 4 sets and that’s going to affect him BIGLY.
    It’s one thing to lose 4 matches in 4 yrs or in 2 years to the same player but to lose 4 times in a season 2 finals, 2 slams boy oh boy! That will hurt the strongest man both physical & Mentally and i like R. Nadal and i don’t want him to go through that kind of pain.

    I like Rafito and some might not believe it but that’s ok, my likeness & respect 4 him is not dependent on others opinion.
    Please Rafito lose in 3 sets or 5 sets, i don’t want U 2 get hurt, please lose.

    Sometimes a disappointment or a failure is a bless in disguise, you might not see it now but wait 4 it because joy comes in the morning.

    After rain there is a rainbow,
    After a storm there is calm,
    After the night there is a morning,
    And after an end there is a new beginning.
    If you have eyes, you will find it.
    If you have wisdom, you will create it.
    If you have ears you will listen to it.

    R. Federer is the best player this season don’t mess with him just let him be, let him win all the slams he wants cos his balling right now, if you try to stop him you will get crushed, destroyed, humiliate and words i can’t use personally.

    Roger Federer will retire soon maybe in 3, 5 or maybe 10 years from now, he is incredible and never gets old, long live the king.
    When he does retire everyone and anyone who wants to win a slam should go ahead cos the king of tennis is gone.

    Wishing you all the best and i hope you enjoy the matches ahead, i know i will.

    Finals
    Roger Federer will win in 3 sets vs K. Anderson or P. Carreno.
    I want both of them in the same side of the net cos that might make it interesting.
    Roger might then win in 3 tight sets- 6-1, 6-2, 6-3.
    Game, set, match, Roger Federer wins his 3rd Slam of the year.
    Congrats! R. Federer, Congrats in Advance,

  5. Great seeing Delpo nearing that form that won him the USO in 2009, although Federer will be fresher and more rested for their meeting, and Delpo had a marathon match with Thiem, so very much doubt he will have much left in the tank for 5 stes against Federer, Rafa against Rublev, not a player i know much about, hopefully Rafa comes through relativley unscathed ….

    • I have a different opinion, Rafa vs Rublev is a bigger match for the following reasons:

      1. Rafa is #1 in the world;
      2. Rublev is a next-gen star. Tennis should be promoting its next stars for the sake of the game, looking forward not backwards.

      Fed/Delpo is nostalgia, Rafa/Rublev is the pinnacle and the future. Rafa/Rublev should have top billing on this alone.

      • This is so untrue ? Rublev is like 50 in the world and he’s playing a match he will probably get wrecked in. There is no way the Rublev Nadal match should be primetime over FEDERER AND DEL PO. Del Po is the X factor here. If he was playing Nadal, then it would need to be Del Po vs Nadal primetime. Del Po is just such a bigger name than Rublev.

        • Rublev is #44 in the Race and Delpo is #47, your point is……..?

          Rublev may get wrecked by Rafa but are you sure the same will not happen to Delpo against Fed? Delpo nearly retired in his previous match, he went 5 sets, he has the flu, you really think that is someone who will produce a thriller tonight?

          Why is Delpo the x-factor? I have given you my reasons for Rublev, you have given zero for Delpo.

          I’ll wait……..

          • Fed has the second match at night. Prestigious but hardly ideal. Will he keep his kids up to watch? Otoh, Rafa’s got the closed roof to deal with. Not perfect. But Rafa can get through his match, do his presser and recovery work, then kick back, have some dinner, maybe watch some soccer and/or the 2nd semi. Sounds good to me, but I’m not a night owl.

          • No reasons are needed. It’s Juan Martin Del Potro. But if you’re concerned about recent results, then I’ll bring up making the Olympic finals beating Nadal and Djokovic on the way and winning the Davis Cup for his country. Del Po > Rublev in every way. That’s my whole point

  6. Rafa should have this. This is the kind of match he may struggle in during a BO3, but I find it doubtful he’ll have too many problems this far into a Slam, especially as he seems to be getting better.

  7. Rafa should be careful here. I hope he starts very aggressively and gets a good measure of his opponent’s serve.

    I saw his practice. He spent a good amount of time on his ROS. Today he actually spent most of the time returning from close to the baseline! I think this is how he will start the match but adjust if needed. Let’s see how it goes.

  8. Roger vs Anderson (the final- both with S African background but this time Federer achieves 9 finals and the 6th US Open to stand alone here too as at Wimbledon)

  9. Rublev is a hard hitter and attacking from both wings. Rafa had practiced with him at Mallorca, so Rafa more or less knows his game. I think Rafa is I’ll have too much guile and court craft for Rublev.

    • I truly hope that Rafa comes out aggressive in this match. Because we know that Rublev will come out aggressive for sure!

      I hope to see Rafa go up another gear or two in this match. He needs to have the forehand working. I am glad that he was practicing his ROS. I hope he has a game plan as to where he wants to stand to receive serve.

      I want to see a confident Rafa who will come out like a boss and take control!

      Good luck, Rafa! Vamos!

  10. I have had this strange notion this USO that the day Pliskova goes, Rafa goes..the day Pliskova struggles Rafa struggles..the day she won easy, he won easy..I know makes 0 sense but am worried now that she lost. So I am going off..switching off whatsapp notifications as I have enough ppl who know I like Rafa and keep feeding me commentary :-)..I will peep after 3.5 hours (hopefully my notions proved wrong)

  11. Straight sets he smashed Dimitrov, Goffin and Bedene. These players are no slouches. I think the bookies have this slightly wrong. This is a 1.20-1.30 match but they know plenty will snap up the 1.08

  12. Not if Delpo of the first 2 sets against Thiem turns up.

    Delpo will turn up all shaven with a bright clean head band no doubt after the wake up call he got. yes, Delpo youre a tennis player not a bum at the local bar.

  13. Delpo will turn up all fresh like its US Open champion vs US Open Champion. No delpo, that was 8 years ago before you became a bum.

    • Amy,

      Great to have you here! Will do my best to let you know how Rafa is doing!

      Great start for Rafa! Serving very well and looking sharp with the fearhand!

        • rc,

          I am getting very nervous! It looks like it’s coming my way. I am hoping it turns or something happens so that we do not get a direct hit. This weekend is when it’s supposed to hit.

          • Nny,

            Me too — hope the high pressure off the Atlantic Coast draws the hurricane to the left and away from land! Praying for you!!!

          • Amen rc…I left a post for you on non tennis forum nny sending you a big hug and saying I really hope irma doesn’t hit florida..

          • Thanks everyone for your good wishes! It’s really a scary prospect. I am trying to just focus on Rafa now to keep my nerves under control.

          • Good luck, NNY! I lived in FLA for years, lived thru Andrew, and two years later we bought a summer place up north for the hurricane season. I’d had enough! Prepare for the worst, hope for the best and do take it seriously. Scariest part for me was when the power went out. Middle of the night, pitch dark, wind howling and things going BANG!

  14. Rublev starting to play better in this set. But he is just bludgeoning the ball. No finesse. Hits head, harder, hardest. Not going to work against Rafa.

    Rafa using the slice backhand effectively.

    • Rafa giving Rublev different looks, Rublev looks confused. Rafa has too much court craft for Rublev, though I must say Rublev really can change direction well at both wings, a little bit like Djoko.

  15. I hope Nadal just finishes this quickly. Want Rublev to get taught a lesson. He just annoys me with how mad he gets at one mistake. Like he was already losing it at 3-1 in the first set. I just find him to be a brat.

    • Rublev is just out of his depth here. It makes me wonder how he got to the quarterfinals. Rafa doesn’t have to be at his best because Rublev can’t challenge him.

    • Oh hello Alison, welcome back! I’m over 4,000 miles from any hurricanes 😀 In fact depending on which way it goes it will find you before me hahahaha — as just a little windy, rainy day in your part of the world.

    • Rublev is trying to outhit Rafa from the baseline with sheer power and that is never going to work. He has no variety in his game.

  16. Andrey Rublev will win in the 5th set.

    I am sad & happy at the same time.

    Sad- because if R. Federer meets A. Rublev it won’t be easy, Roger will win the USO title but his semifinal will be hard, he will win in 3 sets- 6-2, 6-3, 7-5.

    Happy- because R. Nadal won’t get his feelings hurt and all Rafans can brag that R. Federer didn’t defeat Rafito 4 times in year, just 3 times in a roll this year, 3 is better than 4.

    But if Rafans still want R. Nadal to meet R. Federer in the semifinal then whatever happens it’s on you, if Rafito gets hurt it’s your fault.

    You have been warned!

  17. 61 62 so far!!…Woohoo!!…I think Rafa play this great especially for Stanley…and Stanley alone…ohh!![satisfied sigh!]…It’s heaven to see someone lick their own spit!!

      • I missed this comment.
        @amy

        Surely you are a useless bot.

        If you are joking, i sincerely apologize for this but you don’t know me and we haven’t interacted b4.

        I was playing when i made that comment, A. Rublev lost the 1st and 2nd set and i think he was down in the 3rd set when i made that statement, i wanted U guy’s to laugh and have fun is that a bad thing?

        Plzzz mind your language especially when you haven’t met or spoken to someone b4, because that comment you posted is irresponsible & careless.
        I hope you were joking and if you were i apologize again & again x 100 i mean it, but if you weren’t then i feel sorry you.

    • @Mira Andi,

      That comment does not dignify a counter, i will just let it go.
      Stop being careless with your words, it was just a prediction and i was clearly Joking when i was rooting 4 Rublev in the 3rd set.

    • It’s quite true that Rublev has been pretty bad. I have to believe that if Goffin wasn’t injured he would have beaten him.

      I am not sure if it’s a good thing for Rafa not to be challenged here. He looks good, but when the opponent is playing like crap it’s easy to look good. I would not want Rafa to have a tough match before having to play Fed. But it’s a big step up in competition.

    • no, this is the normal rublev. i can’t stand watching his games on tour. his headless chicken play is the same as kyrgios or tomic’s antics.

  18. Would have liked the opponent to give Rafa a bit of a challenge. I won’t be surprised if he hits the practice court for a short session after this match.

    Anyway, it’s a very strong performance from Rafa and now it does look like it is the world no.1 playing.

    • @Azurite,

      Easy win 4 Rafito, Congrats ok.
      No need for lol! I wasn’t confident and i made that clear before the match started but when nadal was up 2 sets & leading in 3rd set i was simply Joking.

      Well done & Congrats!

  19. Rafa is such a realist and so honest in his match assessments. He starts off by saying it was Rublev’s first slam QF and he made more mistakes than usual! He then talks about his performance.

  20. Rafa would definitely destroy Roger in the same fashion should they meet in semis. Roger might just give it up against Delpo as what happened in the last few US open opportunities.

    there is no way Rafa going to lose, 16th slam by Sunday.

      • You’re acting like Nadal is playing unbelievable tennis. His opponent hit 18 winners and 43 unforced errors and Rafa hit 21 winners and 20 unforced errors. Just don’t get how Rafa is the favorite after beating five players outside the top 50, with the two most dangerous players playing worthless tennis against him. If Fed makes the semis, his three opponents heading in were all much better than any of Rafa’s opponents so far. Only reason I would think Rafa could be favored is due to Fed’s two five setters at start of the tournament but I haven’t even seen that as a reasoning for why Rafa will certainly beat Fed.

        • Rafa is my favorite player, but I have to agree with this. Rafa played well, but Rublev played terrible.

          Rafa will only be the clear cut favorite when Roger is out of the tournament. Until then, it’s a toss up between those two, with Roger having a slight edge.

          Hopefully Rafa will be able to beat Roger (assuming he makes SF).

          Rafa has certainly raised his level from Cincy/Montreal, but I still think he has work to do, and could really cut down on his UFE Count.

        • Ben, you are on the money 95% of the time, so too here!

          Me and Stan feel the same.

          Rafa will definitely be a FAV in the bookies fake eyes as they know that Nadal is famous and can bring millions of dollar, all of which can go into the bookies pocket (without even touching the bank!lol) as he Nadal will lose to Federer for sure. This fact 99% of the tennis fans and 90% of the betting public don’t know. And they will fall into a deep hole (loss/loser hole) like 100’s of sheep falling into the same deep hole….one after the another…even after seeing all the sheep ahead falling into the same deep hole (loss/loser hole)…Ha,ha,ha…

          If Del Potro beats Fed (if his back pain recurs) then Nadal can beat Delpo in 4 or 5 sets! It will be a tough match though!

          Who wants to make the billionaire bookies…into multi-billionaires! Then raise your hands NOW and bet Nadal against Federer! Let’s see how many sheeps are in here!Ha,Ha,Ha…lol

    • vamosrafa SEPTEMBER 6, 2017 AT 8:22 PM

      Greg Rusedski thinks Rafa is now the favourite to win the USO .

      Who the xxxx is Greg Rusedski(This is Conor McGregor asking…not me!lol)?

      Greg, Brig(gs), Triggs etc…lol…are all bookies agents/men…spreading false info. on the Internet to get your, mine and his (all the bettors) money…into their big pockets!lol.

      Even Greg Rusedski and Rafa himself will bet a million dollars on Federer winning their upcoming match! Just ask Rafa (in private!lol). See if he says YES( million dollar bet on Federer) and get back here!lol

      Vamos Rafa…smash the virusy & sick Del Potro for us!

  21. Vamos Rafa!!!

    Don’t know who to cheer for in the night match. Been wanting a Fedal but DelPo’s such a hard luck case. I think Fed will win but it would be something if Del Po spoiled the Fedal meeting for the second time.

    Take it easy on Rublev, guys. He’s 19 and has had some nice wins this year. He’s got time to work on his game. Agree that a healthy Goffin would have won, and I have no idea what happened to Dim Dim – apparently just did not show up.

  22. Hopefully Fed can win to set up the historic semifinal. I know I’m a Fed fan but I love how humble Rafa was during his interview and in general. Gotta love his fight and his attitude on and off the court. Don’t know how some Fed fans or fans of other players can actually dislike Nadal. Two of the most humble and certainly the two greatest ever could be facing off next round and I am more than excited.

  23. Yeah, I would not want to get carried away with Rafa winning comfortably his last two matches…Rafa still needs to sharpen his game, cut on UEs and moves closer to the baseline. His court position will be crucial against Fed. Fed will be super aggressive vs Rafa and if he serves well he will be a real deal and tough to beat!

    I really can’t see a tired and sick Delpo beating Fed!

    Vamos Rafa!

  24. When Rafa playing his best tennis, no opposition can beat him including Nole. That explains his 10 RG where he always plays his best there.

    He seldom duplicates it on non clay, but when he does, the same reality applies. Like AO 09, USO 10 & 13.
    Rafa’s best beats the best of all big 4 or big 5, no doubt.

    When Rafa is world number 1, he wins USO.
    History repeats itself.

    Roger’s luck in USO is already over since 2008.
    In 2015, even he played his best tennis he only broke Nole 4 out of 17. When Lady Luck is not on your side, you just don’t win.

    • He didn’t play his best in that 2015 final. He missed a billion first and second serve returns and was just underwhelming in that match.

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