U.S. Open R4 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Basilashvili

Rafael Nadal and Nikoloz Basilashvili will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the U.S. Open quarterfinals on Sunday.

Unless Basilashvili gets triple-bageled, he won’t do any worse than he did in their only previous encounter at the 2017 French Open. Obviously going up against Nadal on a woefully unfavorable surface, the Georgian managed to win all of one game in a 6-0, 6-1, 6-0 defeat.

A hard court should provide a much better opportunity for Basilashvili, who is enjoying success for the second time at a major this season after reaching round three of the Australian Open. The world No. 37 has already done one better in New York, where he booked his spot in the last 16 thanks to victories over Aljaz Bedene, Jack Sock, and Guido Pella.

Nadal’s title defense got off to a strong start with wins at the expense of David Ferrer (via second-set retirement) and Vasek Pospisil (6-3, 6-4, 6-2). The Spaniard suddenly ran into a whole lot of trouble in the form of Karen Khachanov on Friday, but he survived 5-7, 7-5, 7-6(7), 7-6(3) in more than four hours.

“I think I played two good matches to start,” Nadal said of his first week in Flushing Meadows. “Especially the second one. [Against Khachanov], I think I started the match great…. I believe that there is some margin to improve. But I really hope that this kind of match helps. These kind of matches make you feel confident; make you feel stronger. At some point you need to go through some tough moments.

“I think this match helps. [Winning] these kind of matches, going through some very tough situations, lot of moments in the match…helps a lot for the confidence and helps to understand how you have to play for next match.”

The biggest key for Nadal in his next match is the status of his knees, as yet another potential physical issue reared its head against Khachanov. But the world No. 1 said, “my personal feeling is I (am) going to be at my 100 percent for the next one.”

If he is, the end of Basilashvili’s run is here–but it will be a lot more competitive than it was at Roland Garros.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11-14 games

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187 Comments on U.S. Open R4 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Basilashvili

  1. It almost does seem too soon to think about Rafa’s next match. I am not even going there with a prediction. I did not think Khachanov would be as easy as some. I thought it might be interesting and more challenging than his first two matches. But no way did I expect what ended up happening.

  2. This match will be a lot closer than the last one at RG…which isn’t saying much at all. Still, I’ve watched a bit of Basilashvilli in his past couple matches, and he looked a lot better than I’ve ever seen him. I don’t know if he’s been hittin gym, but he’s a seriously buff dude; will be a lot of muscle on display.

    A lot depends on Rafa’s health, of course, especially if it affects his serve; but in any case I don’t think this will be a total walk in the park for him. Wouldn’t be too surprised to see him drop a set, but probably Rafa in 3 close ones.

  3. BTW, I saw him practice yesterday too. He was smoking the balls. I didn’t see him serve much though. Believe the knee has got to affect the serve more than anything else.

  4. Much better start from Rafa although helped by opponent. He should just put the lid in this match and get off the court. Although I doubt he will close easily.

          • I have one username at least. If you have to build a machine learning model to detect trolling that would be one very important feature. And thats the only feature we can detect on an internet.

            Everything is subjective , but if it becomes subjective for most, it tilts towards fact.

            Leave it, its beyond you to understand machine learning or artifical intelligence. Its for someone who possesses real intelligence first.

  5. Rafa’s knee is fine. I don’t know why someone has to stir things up by ignorant comments. As if anyone on here would know the state of Rafa’s knees from watching him on tv. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

    • You can do whatever you want, you can easily make out from Rafa’s muted celebrations that he is struggling. It could be a minor niggle but its more to do with the mental effect such an injury could do to the player.

        • Did you see Rafa’s last service game . There is no jump . Its not that long a match that he he just can’t serve. Obviously knee is the issue. Pretty senseless that you are unable to make out on TV.

  6. What is Rafa looking at when he serves? The shot clock? Each time he does so, he loses his first serve, serving poorly! I really can’t stand it, just go out there and serve!! Why bother about the clock? Just concentrates and gets the first serve in!

    Rafa is poor in his BP conversion too, I mean he has so many chances yet he only manages one after being broken himself. And, he’s losing more often in baseline rallies nowadays against many players!

  7. Why is Rafa going CC to his opponent’s BH all the time? His opponent has a very solid BH and is hitting so many winners! Rafa really has brain freezes out there, makes a mess of everything in the third set; should have broken Basil’s serve in that first service game when he had so many chances. As usual he’s making life difficult for himself.

  8. Normally I wouldn’t give Thiem a shot at getting even a set off of Rafa on a hardcourt. But given that the courts are playing historically slow, I give a Thiem a chance of getting a set. Maaaaaybe even two… but doubtful.

  9. Rafa looking very one dimensional in this third set, just going CC to opponent’s BH all the time no matter what! No wonder he got burnt so often when opponent hit his BH DTL!

  10. So Rafa wants to play four five hours for this match, I see! He’s not helping himself and his knee; even if he wins this match, I think he’ll lose to Thiem if he continues to play like this.

    I mean losing a set to opponents ranked 37 and 27, how many sets he’s going to lose to top ten player(s)?

  11. wafa is in trouble. this Basilashvili guy is such a joy to watch. unfortunately he won’t have enough in the tank to challenge the moonballing dirtballer.

  12. He’s not helping himself when he’s playing brainless grinding tennis! His opponent is hitting so many BH winners yet Rafa just brainlessly keeps hitting CC to his BH almost all the time!

    His quest for another title here not looking good, I afraid.

    • Lucky…i already giving up hope of seeing him bite another trophy as soon as he finished the match against Kaschanov…I mean,can we honestly believe ‘THIS’ Rafa would win against Novak/Fed?

  13. He gets a break. Needs a quick 6-2 like set. Rafa-Theim would be a night match. So Rafa gets more than 50 hours for the next match. And then he gets 2 days off. So, he should be rested given that he did not play Cincy and was rested.

    But his level is not good.

    • If he continues to play like this, he’ll lose to Thiem! Thiem is a better player than this Basilashvili. For all we know, Rafa may need to go five sets to beat this Basilashvili, and that’s because he wins with his fitness. The way he’s serving, he’s going to lose his serve again this this fourth set!

  14. and I am surprised why can’t Rafa show the same urgency in the third set which he is showing now.He should have broken when he was 0-40 in first game given that opponent is not a big server.

  15. Rafa is not doing his knee any favors. This one should have been over and done in three. Things have changed with meeting Thiem in the quarterfinals. Rafa needed to get off the court fairly quickly today.

    Pam Shriver interviewed Carlos Moya and asked his thoughts on the third set. He said Rafa played too defensive and also had missed opportunities early in the set.

    This match is almost three hours long.

  16. Why is Rafa always so defensive even against players ranked in the 30s? Moya knows it yet he can’t do anything about it; too many years of grinding has led to Rafa believing in grinding for a win. No wonder his knees are in such bad conditions.

    The win over Khachanov has not helped in his confidence apparently, he’s still playing defensive tennis as the match wears on.

  17. Rafa’s performance to me is just so disappointing!!! For sure, her will lose to Theim!!!! Thiem’s performance today was so flawless it was scary!! This is the end of the road for Rafa, sorry!! He is just convincing as a defending champ!!!

  18. Wow. This match is surely over in just a couple games… After completely choking away those chances to break back, Basilashvili’s spirit is surely broken.

    Great fighting on Rafa’s part to get out of that. Going 5 with a guy of Basilashvili’s caliber would be unacceptable for Rafa…

  19. Rafa breaks serve again but what’s the point of breaking serve only to hand the break back?

    I’m truly disappointed with the way he plays in these two sets, when he was playing so well to win the first two sets. Its more to do with his level drastically gone down than his opponent suddenly playing well. It’s Rafa giving his opponent belief, that his opponent continues to hit hard and serve big, esp when Rafa is feeding CC balls for him to hit his BH winners!

    • I didn’t see it either Benny. Feeling glum reading the comments! Was ok for him to be poor for one match but 2 in a row isn’t good😢

    • Nothing obvious.

      As Tignor said the other day. There are two versions of Rafa now. The confident one and the nervous one. Difference from 2015-16 is the confident Rafa shows up long enough to outlast the nervy one.

      Played quite well the first set and level dropped after that dropping back and hitting short which is what he does when he’s nervous.

    • Benny,

      Rafa is not injured. Ignore that nonsense. Rafa seems to play defensive and not taking advantage of opportunities to break early in the third set. Then he started playing more aggressive in the fourth set. But what he has this up and down with the lapses, I don’t know.

    • I don’t think he’s injured. A bit tired, perhaps or maybe he knew he had this match and didn’t need to get that pumped up. Basilashvili is playing better than usual – or he wouldn’t be in the 4th round even against not particularly difficult opponents. Rafa was wearing a below the knee tape on Friday but not today. Today’s match was very physical; Friday’s was even more so.

      Otoh, Thiem played one heck of a match vs Kando. Rafa will have to pick it up to beat him on Tuesday.

      Don’t read too much into the comments here. Watching an entire Rafa match is very hard on the nerves and diehard fans get really impatient and angry if he doesn’t win every game. Sometimes every damn point. (I only watched the last set and I’m still shaking, lol).

  20. I still dont know, how being fully rested and playing only for and a half sets in 2 rounds, just started giving problems to his knees. Why his doctors are not just telling him that he needs to cut down his HC scheduling.

    And he is enrolled for Asian swing . Heights of stupidity. Just shut the year after USO and get ready for AO. To hell with WTF . Just take a break.

    Just do what Fed is doing. He better play one FrenchOpen more in his career than playing HC slams or tourneys.

    • He cant win USO with his current health conditions. Its 0 or 1 for Rafa now. QF, SF and F results dont matter . Its eaither win or lose.

    • Definitely. He’s the favourite. All in his control and he tends to raise his game as the opponent becomes tougher.

      But his confidence is shaky which puts him at greater risk. He will need to better control his nerves or he stands little chance.

      My guess is that there’s an underlying physical issue that he’s worried could get worse.

      • You confuse me a bit hawks by suggesting he is simply getting nervy again but also suggesting his nerves are due to a physical problem!
        I really don’t want him to go down tamely to thiem!
        Or do I misunderstand you??

    • Of course he has a chance. Thiem is not that great on hc. Has never played on Ashe. The court is slower. So Rafa has a chance but I think if he is injured it will catch up with him. I don’t know how he played but his post match interview clearly looked offkey n he mentioned physical issue in interview too didn’t he ?. 3.5 hours was not needed today at all

      • Sorry sanju I don’t mean to sound negative! But reading all the comments is quite depressing and people are saying thiem was excellent today..😕

        • Thiem was excellent against a worn out Kevin Anderson who is still probably feeling the effects of playing a near 7 hour match at Wimbledon coupled with two five setters in the first three rounds.

        • Amy the people watching the match are braver than you or me as they atleast watch whereas we don’t …but frankly comments here midmatch you know are always pointing out how bad he is as the bar for him is very high maybe. Why do you read comments midmatch hehe..I read it after the match is over n if he has won , it’s amusing 🙂 today for instance first 2 sets hardly any but the moment third was downhill flood of concerned comments start coming…thats we rafans…always worried 🙂

          • Well I have problems watching live sanju from England!!
            But it’s true we rafa fans get really mad when he is playing! During the match with Delpo at wimby I was sure he was going to lose!!
            The more passionate we are the more distraught we get throwing out dire predictions of doom and gloom!!😀😀

    • Amy, let’s not get carried away here… Although Thiem hasnbesten him before, it was always on clay and never at a major. Sure, Rafa didn’t play his best today in the second half of the match, and Thiem played well in his match, but that doesn’t mean that Thiem is just suddenly favored over Rafa. Especially on a hard court!

      We saw Rafa play well below his standard during multiple matches during last year’s US Open, and he was just fine.

      I’m not saying that Thiem can’t beat Rafa- of course he can. But let’s not act like he should suddenly be favored over the 3-time and defending champion, when he himself has hardly ever even made the 2nd week at hard court majors.

      Rafa is still the far superior player in terms of intelligence. Rafa doesn’t need to blow Thiem off the court- just needs to play better than Thiem in the most important points in 3 different sets.

      I just can’t pick Thiem to beat Rafa at any major when Thiem hasn’t even remotely come close whenever they’ve played best-of-5.

      The ONE exception will be if Rafa’s knee is injured. Then it would be fair to think Thiem should be favored. However, I don’t think that Rafa is injured enough for it to be the reason why he loses to Thiem.

    • I absolutely give Rafa a chance! The pendulum has swung so wildly for some that they must have whiplash. Thiem has come out of nowhere and suddenly he’s the conquering hero?

      I don’t presume to know exactly what is going on with Rafa. But he is still competing and staying in the fight.

      I agree with Kevin’s analysis.

  21. So qf is where it will end looks like…I did not see the match but just saw on court interview n did not find him in good spirits …he is surely not feeling right…somehow if thiem chokes delpo will pack Rafa off.

    Only solace is one of djoko Fed will also be out in qf 🙂

    • May or may not end at the QF. It all depends on how Rafa (and his opponents of course) play(s).

      Rafa made a mess of his early rounds last year too, losing a set to Taro Daniel and to Leo Mayer, but once he reached the QF, he gave Rublev a shellacking. In the SF against Delpo, after losing the first set, he adjusted his game plan and handed Delpo a beat down, feeding Delpo a bagel in the process.

      Like I said, it also depends on how Rafa plays. I do believe now that he’s in the QF, he will surely have some confidence, some relief off the pressure he is/was facing, and maybe he will play consistently well throughout a match instead of having inexplicable lapses esp after playing well enough to earn one or two good sets.

      • I think I understand what Hawk was implying, that Rafa was worried about his knee, and so he was nervous because of that (and maybe also thinking of all those tough matches in the past at this stage of the USO, one he lost in 2016 and one he won a hard fought one vs L Mayer).

        I do feel Rafa’s knee acted up because of the humid conditions, too much moisture in the air is no good for his knee and so he could feel soreness in his knee. He was trying to protect his knee hence he wasn’t serving well against Khachanov.

        He played better against Basilashvili, was looking to close the match in straight sets, had BPs in Basilashvili’s first service game in the third set but didn’t capitalise. I guess he rue missing those chances, and Basilashvili after escaping those BPs, started playing more aggressively while Rafa started having doubts after missing those chances. Had Rafa broken Basilashvili’s serve at that time, I do believe he won’t be having any more doubts and would hold serve till the finish line in straight sets.

        Rafa did play well in the first two sets, well enough to earn BPs and converted them to win the sets. He became tentative in the third set and so ended up in a mess. I feel because of that he wasted another hour on the court and subjected himself to more physical exertion, may not be good for his affected knee.

        Against Thiem, I just hope it’s not the Thiem of Madrid that turns up to play, and certainly hope not the clueless Rafa of Madrid too. But, USO is a slam, so I’ll expect Rafa to fight hard no matter what; I think Rafa to win in four sets; unless the messy Rafa turns up to play then Thiem in his Madrid mode may end up winning the match.

  22. Yeah, don’t like when Rafa has this mindset of “playing not to lose” but he is winning and that counts!

    I thought Rafa was tentative in that third set, did not want to risk and maybe was fooled by Bashiasvili’s body language which I found deceiving. At moments he looked like he was cramping just to be very fast and running all over the place soon after. I think Bashi played high level tennis and one should recognize that rather than blaming Rafa. Bashi”s seems to be excellent returner as well. And one more factor to consider is the packed AA stadium which brings out the best in players.

    This match as much as vs Kachanov make good preparation for Thiem who likes rallies and prefers long points! Rafa will have to be ready for it! The match will be physically demanding. However, Rafa doesn’t fear those who engage in rallies as he can always counterattack. It might be difficult but I expect Rafa to deal with Thiem with sucess.

    Rafa serms to draw all the young, enthusiastic and good looking players 😀 they must be grateful to be able to play against and learn from the King!

    Good job, Rafa!

    Vamos Champ!

    • I think you’re the only one who think Rafa does a good job! To me he’s dumb to keep hitting to Basilashvili’s BH all the time when Basilashvili was hitting winners after winners from that wing! Rafa didn’t play like a no.1 player in this match, at least not in set 3 and 4. He played one dimensional tennis for the most of set three.

      Basilashvili came out all guns blazing but Rafa served well enough and played well enough not to allow him any BP chances in set 1 and he broke Basilashvili when it mattered and duly served and won the first set. He was still playing well in the second set but after having so many BP chances but couldn’t take advantage, in Basilashvili’s first service game in set three, his game went downhill from there – hitting short, playing safe, going CC all the time to opponent’s stronger wing, losing his rallies when he usually would have won them, etc and etc.

      To me he’s playing subpar tennis from set three onwards, and Basilashvili seized the opportunities opened to him to play some of his most aggressive tennis to edge the third set.

      I’m not pinning any hope of him defending his title here, Delpo will most likely be the one sending him packing, if it’s not Thiem doing the job. Delpo looks seriously like the most likely title winner here imo, when Djoko and Fed will most likely kill themselves to reach the SF. Cilic, Goffin and Kei not exactly the type of players to beat Delpo in the final.

      • Reminiscent of his loss to Fognini at the us open after being up two sets, then suddenly playing not to lose hitting short making Fognini look great when, in reality, almost any Top 50 player should in that position.

        And I don’t see many here saying that Thiem is the favourite to beat Rafa. That’s just another overstated exaggeration also known as a strawman argument.

        However, as it stands with this level of play, I no longer have Rafa as the favourite to win the tournament even though he is more than capable of raising his level assuming that there are no serious underlying physical issues.

        • Hawks!….Very agree with u!,, especially the last paragraph….Rafa certainly can win if he starts play aggressive & eager to make winners…I think his Wimby play was much more convincing than this…Just hope he will found that Rafa pretty soon…If not..well…

          • Never a dull moment being a Rafan. He seldom makes it easy on himself as Lucky points out.

            He’s obviously the GOAT though that he fights through such adversity and remains no. 1.

            He’s won the highest percentage of men’s slams played in the open era.

      • @lucky,

        I did not say Rafa played great! Read my post carefully: I said I disliked his “play not to lose attitude” and that he was tentative in the set 3! The good job was that he won it in 4 rather than 5 as you were predicting during the course of the match.

        I also agree and have been saying Delpo will be the biggest threat to Rafa since I watched Delpo play at L. Armstrong and he looked scary strong! Moreover, Rafa usually has trouble dealing with hard hitters and big servers and Delpo is both, so it is expected for Rafa to face difficulties in that encounter.

        I still think Rafa will beat Thiem! Though he may lose if his knee is troubling him…

        And I will ALWAYS say “good job” if and when Rafa wins no matter what!

        Vamos Champ!

    • When a player gets nervous in any sport, the legs go first. Maybe he wasn’t jumping because he was tight and he didn’t use his legs as much.

      • Maybe he was tight in the game where he got broken, but Rafa served it out with no problems at all. Basilashvili is a big hitter-and-misser. If he connects he’ll win the point, if not, not.

  23. Ok well if he’s healthy then yes he is still the favorite to beat Thiem. Cmon guys don’t underestimate your man here. He’s the defending champ for a reason. He might surprise you and go out and slaughter Thiem. On hard courts, that’s not a good matchup for Thiem at all. Plus, it’s gonna be hard for Thiem to play as well as he did against Anderson again.

  24. I think you all are jumping ship too soon on Rafa… Thiem has never gotten a sniff at Rafa at a major. Del Po would obviously be a challenge, but Rafa has been the victor any time they’ve played in a major for years. And Novak/Fed have not looked great overall themselves.

    If what you guys are doing is downplaying Rafa’s chances in case he does lose, then that is understandable. But we’ve seen Rafa play not his best early on in majors before, only to pick up his level as it progresses, and then peaks when it counts.

    Saying things like, “So the QF is where it ends for Rafa this year?” just seems ridiculous to me for hardcore fans of his to say. You all have seen him win when play not his best early on- why just suddenly count him out?? You’re his fans! Be competitive with him! Stand by your man! 🙂

  25. If it makes any of you big-time Rafa fans feel better, I will be there in Arthur Ashe Stadium watching Rafa vs. Thiem, and I will send Rafa all the positive vibes that I possibly can! 🙂

    • Have a great time, Kevin! Let’s hope for the outcome we all want!

      I’m also hoping for a Fed-Djoker quarter final! I thought Fed played a great match vs NK. Spanked him like a spoiled child.

      • Thank you so much, Ramara! I’ve been looking forward to this moment since the second I left the BJK Tennis Center last year. Even though I can only afford nosebleed seats, I feel so incredibly lucky that I get to a Nadal-Thiem match. Even if it’s not the best matchup for Thiem, they are definitely one of the best matches to see, especially on a slower court like this, as they just slug it out like their life depends on it. I can’t wait!

        But the match I obviously feel even more blessed to get to see (I hope) is the Fed-Djokovic QF… I have tickets for the Wednesday Night session. I am 99.99 percent sure that both Fed and Novak will win their respective 4th round matches, but my biggest concern is that the Open will make the biggest, dumbest mistake of their lives and put Fed-Novak in the Day session… I seriously cannot imagine that they wouldn’t put one of the two or three greatest matchups the game has ever seen in the Night session. Especially since it’s on a weekday.

        If for some reason they put Fed-Novak on in the Day, then I will sell my Night session tickets and try to get day ones instead. But I really can’t inagibe they would put that match on in the day…

        I’m not as excited about Del Po-Isner, as I can’t stand Isner. But I loved watching Del Po play on Grandstand last year against Bautista-Agut, so I’m psyched to see him play again this year.

        Oh my LORD could it be a potential match of a lifetime if Del Po-Rafa meet in the SF again! 🙂

  26. wafa doesn’t look good. the dirtballer ain’t no business winning this us open. delpo should eat for breakfast his puffing grunting moonballs. hopefully thiem takes the trash out so we have some good SF. wafa is again faking the knee problem. perhaps he is yearning for another stem-cell therapy (if you know what i mean).

  27. Rafa would still be in the final unless delpo fire is on. I do not see these two beating Rafa in BO5

    in final if it is Nole which is very likely, then it is 50:50
    if it is fed which is highly unlikely, I think 55:45 chance to Rafa advantage

  28. Another good win for Rafa. A lot of the comments here refer to Nadal as the #1 player in the world. He is according to ranking points, of course, but the large majority of those have been earned on clay. On HC it’s by no means obvious that he’s the #1 player, and what the last two opponents have shown is that there’s not much distance between Nadal and even a good top-20 or top-30 player on this surface.

    I didn’t think Rafa played badly today. As I suspected, his opponent is much improved and was able to dictate play a lot of the time. After pulling even in the 4th set, however, Nadal was by far the more consistent player and won going away.

    Based on current form, I don’t think Nadal can be considered the favourite against Thiem. The fact that Thiem has a few wins over him, combined with Nadal’s apparent less than 100% form, leads me to think that Thiem will take this one, in 4 or maybe 5 sets.

    • Lets say which version of Theim turns up. In my opinion DelPo is the favorite from this section. Fresh and he has been playing really well all through the year.

      • Delpo is the favourite in this section of the draw. If Rafa gets past Thiem at least there’s a two days rest before the SF so that may help Rafa physically.

        As long as he is well physically, I think he can give Delpo a good fight, win or loss.

    • Joe, Rafa only played TWO HC events this year prior to the USO, but he won one and reached the QF of another.

      Fed played many HC events and had his narrow escape too vs low ranked players, and he even lost to a no.175 ranked player at Miami. Fed is certainly not in his all conquering mode too. The same could be said of Djoko too this year.

    • Joe, Rafa played badly in the third set, we all could see that! Rafa won because he played well to win the first two sets, and he edged out his opponent in the fourth set.

      Overall, he’s not playing at his 100%, that’s why he lost a set, if not I doubt Basilashvili could even get a set (and Basilashvili barely won the set in a TB even when he’s playing all out aggressive tennis, and you say there’s not much difference between Rafa’s level on the HC against a player ranked in the 20s or 30s????? What crap!!).

    • Noone stops Fed from accumulating HC points and become number 1, upto him. Don’t give me a crap that Fed does not want to be number 1 player. He played Rotterdam to become number 1.

      • My point had nothing to do with Fed whatsoever. I’m not saying that Nadal does not deserve to be #1. It’s just that many of the comments here seem to be expecting him to thrash lower ranked opponents as if the match were played on clay. Indeed, that’s exactly what he did to today’s opponent (Basilashvlli) last year at RG. Different surface, very different match.

    • I know, right? Even the ATP refers to Rafa as the No. 1 player in the world! The nerve!

      I think hard court events should be worth triple points compared to clay. At least until Federer retires. It’s only fair because fed no longer plays on clay.

  29. Joe – will you ever, I mean ever write a post without trying to denigrate Rafa or try to put him down? No difference between Rafa and a player ranked in top 30 on HC, what a truckload of bull. I can accept if it is top 10 even there too he is close on HC slams (4 slams vs 1 Cilic, 1 Murray, 2 Stan, 1 Delpo) to rest of the entire field combined excluding Fed & Djoko. . Rafa is physically hampered is obvious for all to see as his lateral movement is not great and his serve is iffy . Fed was hampered last year, did he not go 5 against Tiafoe and Youzhny(of all people). Please take the hate blinders off for heavens sake.

    • Well said Sanju! 👍!

      Well, Fed’s level on HC last year was even worse than a no.30 player, had to scrape past two very low ranked players (no.70 and no. 101) in five sets! Was his level closer to no.70 to 101 players than the no.2 or 3 players back then??

    • Sanju, it’s not obvious to me that Rafa is physically hampered. He hasn’t said he is, and if his knee is hurting then why wasn’t it taped? He’s played two tough matches against good players. He won both; good for him. Why can’t his fans simply accept that sometimes he isn’t good enough to win and sometimes he isn’t good enough to win convincingly, even against much lower ranked players. Nothing wrong with that. My point was simply that his #1 ranking is not indicative of his general strength on HC, so we shouldn’t expect him to win these matches easily.

      There is nothing I said that indicates hatred of Rafa, of which I have none.

      • Joe, I’m not Sanju but still I want to respond here.

        Rafa had knee soreness and that’s why he got his knee taped up at beginning of second set in the match vs Khachanov. After the match, he was limping when he was in the tunnel walking back to the locker room, someone saw that. It’s obvious his knee was affecting him when he was serving, hence he was serving poorly, when you compare how he served against Pospisil in the previous round match. Moya confirmed that Rafa had knee soreness.

        Rafa had dealt with Khachanov without losing a set in all of their matches prior to this USO; Khachanov was playing well in Toronto, yet Rafa still beat him in straight sets. If beating someone in straight sets is considered a close match, then I must say Fed is/was having many close matches that he won in TB sets! Was Fed’s level close to his lower ranked opponents then??

        Basilashvili came out all guns blazing, yet Rafa won the first two sets without too much fuss; it’s his usual lapses in his matches that cost him a set and he lost it in a TB. If winning a set against Rafa was considered playing close to Rafa’s level, then everyone’s level is close to his opponent’s once he gets a set!

        Rafa’s ranking points on HC was only second to Fed’s from USO 2017 to Toronto/Cincy this year, if we ignore Fed’s Rotterdam, IW and Miami points when Rafa did not play there. Rafa has 4640 HC points (2000+500+600+180+360+1000) and Fed has 5060 (360+1000+500+600+2000+600), difference of only 420 points! Bear in mind too Rafa was injured end of last year and had to withdraw after playing one match each at Paris Masters and WTF.

        No one else has scored more HC points than Rafa other than Fed, even when they have played more HC events than Rafa has. I don’t see how the lower ranked players are close to Rafa’s level on the HCs.

        • Khachanov is a much improved player this year, imo. He played a great match against Nadal the other day. Had it not been for his numerous and crucial double faults, he may well have won that match in straight sets. If they were to play again tomorrow and Nadal was in full health, I would still pick it to be relatively close. (Before the match I predicted that Karen would take a set but that Nadal would win in 4; I wasn’t able to post the prediction because of site technical issues).

  30. Good that Rafa doesn’t give a toss what we write here.
    He’ll just continue, till the day he calls it quits, to play his attrition style of game, both for himself and his adversaries.
    I’d say his results over the years have been ‘good enough’ in all surfaces , lol

    • Accurate characterization to call Nadal’s style one of “attrition,” though he has deviated from that style somewhat in the last two years. However, it remains his preferred style, and it’s best suited, of course, to clay. On HC, an aggressive player who is on his game will generally give Nadal a lot of trouble.

      • “On HC, an aggressive player who is on his game will generally give Nadal a lot of trouble.”

        a testament to that is nadull’s and tio’s rant (some time ago) that the WTF should be played on clay! these spanish cheaters wanted to manipulate the ATP itself! can you imagine this audacity? all these just confirm that his moonballing game is not suited for HC.

        • Why is it that so-called tennis fans that criticize the style of play and talent of other players are always fedfans (although in this case a Sampras fan no less)? (This is a rhetorical question ICYMI.)

          You never see Rafans doing this including me.

          Such sad fans.

    • ^ Thank goodness someone said it! Like Rafa would ever read any of it! He doesn’t get into petty nonsense and knows what is important in life.

      Joe Smith is always going to find ways to diss Rafa. He may say it’s really not and try to hide what he is doing. But it’s the same old crap over and over sometimes using different words, trying to feign innocence or whatever.

      I say that Rafa’s record stands on it shown. Period.

  31. ‘ON HC, an aggressive player who is on his game’ would give anybody a lot of trouble. The fact that Nadal still manages to come on top most of the times speaks about how good a player he is

    • Agreed that it shows how good he is. I just think Nadal’s counter-punching style means that the outcome of his HC (and grass) matches are often not on Nadal’s racquet to the extent that one might think they would be, given his #1 ranking.

      • Joe, Rafa rarely lost to any journey men even on the HCs. On grass yes, after his knees were shot and he couldn’t bend them the way he could before 2012. His 2015/2016 were anomalies, just like Djoko’s 2017 to early 2018.

        Rafa is/was easily the top four on HCs since 2008, was no.2 in 2008,2010,2013, 2017, and no.1 in 2009 together with Djoko. How’s he that bad on the HCs? It’s just like Fed and Djoko were no.1 on HCs but weren’t so on clay.

        Rafa was 9-6 vs Fed on the HCs prior to 2015, don’t tell me each time they played, the match was on Fed’s racket. If that’s the case, then Fed was really poor winning only 40% of that.

        Djoko has the upper hand on the HCs vs Rafa, he’s 14 vs 7 before 2015, however Djoko isn’t an all out attacker, he’s also a counterpuncher, just a bit more offensive one.

        Most of Rafa’s losses on the HCs were to top ten players, whether they’re of the former gen, his peer gen or the current gen, a good 72% of them; and 22% of his losses on the HCs happened when he’s 20 yo or younger (2003 to early 2007).

      • You know what , Djoker is naturally an aggressive player. But that guy has 2 USO whereas Rafa has 3. I know that can change at the end of their careers but it wont change by a lot. Rafa beat Djoker in 2 out of 3 finals they played here. And he was favorit in both these matches.

        BTW Rafa has more USO than Agassi who is considered top 10 HC of all time. So, we can put to rest any doubt what Rafa brings on the table at USO. His numbers speak for him.

        So much so for a guy who played all his life training on clay courts. Makes his achievements more worthy.

    • @ shireling,

      Exactly! Rafa doesn’t have to cruise in his HC matches in order to “qualify” for a good player! Rafans are generally demanding and ask for more every single match! If Rafa drops a set Rafans conclude he is bound to lose in his next match! If Fed drops the set it’s small loss of focus and if Nole drops a set its nothing serious as he will definitely raise his level in later rounds. I really think fans are sometimes unfair to Rafa! Sure HC is not Rafa’s favorite surface, true Rafa tends to go harder way and is forced to fight hard when facing aggressive players and true that Rafa tends to get nervous if not confident on his own serve but he is winning his matches reaching quarterfinals in all 4 GSs at the age of 32! I eish more respect is paid to the King at least by his own fans!

      Vamos Champ!

  32. Yes, myself as a Nadal fan would like to see him dictating all the time and making life easy for himself but it’s just not going to happen on HC.
    True that lesser ranked players are able to ‘boss him around’ more than he (and us fans) would like but, what the hell, he still manages to win and that’s good enough for me and we do get matches such as the one Vs Khachanov the other day, stuff of legend!

  33. Not that we are demanding that Rafa has to win in straight sets, but it’s the way he plays that’s the concern – the lapses, the serving woes, the lost of serve after breaking serve; and adding to that the knee soreness and the unnecessary grinding.

    TBH, I wasn’t that concerned last year at the USO when he lost a set to Taro Daniel and to Leonardo Mayer, because he was already struggling at Canada and Cincy, and he wasn’t the defending champion. This year however, he is the defending champion and he’s coming to New York having won at Toronto, so he’s playing well therefore the expectations from his fans.

  34. Joe Blow is just trying to drag you down and share his frustration that Rafa is GOAT.

    He’s defeated Federer and Nole mutitiple times at hard court slams.

    Always on Rafas racquet vs Federer at any outdoor surface since 2008.

    Djokovic is the bigger challenge than Federer. When all is said and done, Federer will be fourth. in greatest of all time five years from now when all four current greats are retired.

    That’s why 90% of Joe Blows posts are intended to denigrate Rafa. (The other 10% are fan mail to Me.)

      • He was still in the process of recovering his form from his 2016 wrist injury ICYMI.

        When Rafa is injured or recovering form, that’s when Federer can beat him.

        We are talking about when both players are in form, like all slam h2h from 2008-2014 for example where Rafa was 6-0 in slams (3 clay, 2 HC, 1 grass) vs Federer and 8-2 in Masters.

        The 2009 Madrid loss followed a four-hour semifinal win over Nole less than 24 hours prior:
        “He was simply better than me,” Nadal said.
        Nadal’s grueling semifinal win against Novak Djokovic took its toll as he failed to reach many balls he would normally get.
        “It doesn’t help to play four hours yesterday,” Nadal said.

        The other loss at IW was a cool rainy evening when Rafa had an off night.

          • Yeah he was still. Murray out and Nole lost in a slump. Simply wasn’t back to full form and still held a break lead in the 5th but lacked the confidence and got tight and defensive which you can’t do against Federer.

            Similar to a premature Rafa being No. 2 prior to 2008. Competition was lacking.

      • You are correct. Indian Wells was on Fed’s racket. Miami he just beat Rafa because Rafa started to feel the mental block. In Shanghai as well, it was on Fed’s racket. Rafa is yeat to break Fed’s serve in last 3 matches. Thats a staggering stat.

        I think people forget that Fed can also be injured as well. But Fed usually stays silent on injuries. He thinks it would give positive vibes to his opponent. For example I think 2013 Fed played with a bad back. But you dont see that too often.

        Till Rafa beats him on HC, I think he will continue to have e nervous against Fed.

      • Fed-Rafa matches have always been on Federer’s racquet, except on clay, and even then they sometimes are, e.g. RG 2011. Nadal recognizes this; it’s part of the nature of being mainly a defensive, retrieving player with a relatively weak serve. Generally, the more attacking player will win if he can make more winners than errors.

        Fortunately for Nadal, he is about as good a retriever as the game has ever seen (only Djokovic is better). He is also probably the most intelligent player, tactically, ever. And he is the most tenacious. Those qualities are enough to make him #2 GOAT. But because his virtues are mainly defensive and tactical, the outcomes of his matches are often not on his racquet when his opponent is a powerful attacking player. That was my main point.

        Fed suffered from a mental block for most of his career against Nadal (never against Djokovic, imo) but that was overcome in AO 2017. As Benny said, Fed will be favoured against Nadal on HC until Rafa manages to reverse the streak. At this point, Fed is probably in Nadal’s head a bit.

  35. I was just reading brad Gilbert ‘s Twitter feed from yesterday…he was saying it was extremely humid yesterday so that won’t have helped Rafa! Hope the humidity drops for Tuesday.
    Sweating buckets in the humidity is very enervating so that may have been a real factor in why his level dropped in the third set ie being physically drained leading to muddled thinking on the court and getting defensive.

    • Coric was sweating profusely last nigh vs Delpo and he was freaking out serving at 4-5 in the first set because the umpire wouldn’t allow his request to have his sweat wiped from the baseline during a game. He should have just asked for the towel and quickly done it himself.

      The heat wave is back which means night matches in R16 and QF for Roger (even though I’ve never seen him sweat).

      • Brad was saying rafa would get the Tuesday night spot with Serena…
        I just read Rafa ‘s presser. He said “now is the moment to make the next step,step forward, play more aggressive. ”
        He knows what he needs to do! Where is thiem standing to receive on the court? Is he still back in the stands?

  36. My issue with Rafa having to grind out a tough win and play a fourth set, is simply out of concern for his body. I hate to see him have to play more than necessary. The humidity did not help him at all because he sweats buckets.

    Rafa knows exactly what to expect from Thiem. That’s why he said he has to play more aggressive. I hope he can bring that to the match.

    • Have you seen thiem play at this year uso nny? I was wondering if he is still playing as if he was on a clay court standing way back to receive?
      Personally I think the fact that they have not played on hard before favours Rafa.

      • Thiem did stand way back to receive vs Anderson. He said he wouldn’t do that vs Rafa.

        More players are standing way back to receive now. The commentators say they’re imitating Rafa, which amuses me for some reason. (Probably because when Rafa first started doing it the commies joked about it a lot.) Rafa, when asked about it in his last presser, said no, he did not “like” that position, that he liked to vary the return position depending on the circumstances. (my words, Rafa gave examples)

      • Amy?

        That is you? What’s up with your username?

        Ramara kindly answered your question. Rafa is not Anderson. Thiem did say he will move up against Rafa. Anderson has that big serve. Rafa doesn’t have a huge serve.

        Thiem is going to come out blasting. He knows that he has to go for his shots against Rafa. I just hope that Rafa can be aggressive and not get nervous.

  37. wafa is not an aggressive player, he is a defensive dirtballer designed for clay (a surface nobody cares about). he is a left handed android created by tio toni and simply uses a template created by his tio to win matches in unethical fashion. wish toni didn’t design all that OCD stuff so the android looks more human.

    • Why is it that so-called tennis fans that criticize the style of play and talent of other players are always fedfans (although in this case a Sampras fan no less)? (This is a rhetorical question ICYMI.)

      You never see Rafans doing this including me.

    • amy,

      Garbagegoat is getting more out there lately. He really is losing it. All this trash talk about a tennis player who does not even know he is alive!

  38. USO courts play like fast clay, so no wonder baldull had some success there. if USO courts played like 1st week of Wimbledon we all know what the answer would be (rosol, darcis, kyrgios, brown, muller). wafa simply doesn’t like fast courts, he prefers the slow-ass ones where he can run, retrieve and fake injuries like there is no tomorrow.

    • grassgoat you are even worse than the biggest troll hawkeye here. That should some insult if you understand hawkeye’s reputation here.

      • what is wrong with the ‘grassgoat’? a nick dedicated to all great grass court players of the open era: federer, sampras, borg, djokovic, mcenroe, becker. all genuine class acts, tennis ambassadors and true champions.

      • Nah, grassgoat, fedexol and Joe Blow are the biggest trolls here. fedexol though is REALLY bad because it’s ok when he does it for some reason.

        fedexol is My biggest fan as he can’t stop talking about Me. Lucky for Joe Blow, he’s also My biggest fan.

        (But Sampras fan is catching up!)

        Unlike the trolls above, real tennis fans with an ounce of objectivity can admit when their guy in great form lost when another great was playing at an even higher level.

        They also love to criticize Rafa’s skill and technique.

        Real tennis fans with some objectivity don’t do this either. I certainly don’t criticize Roger’s incredible skills, form and technique.

        This is what separates the trolls from the tennis fans.

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