U.S. Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Khachanov, Thiem vs. Fritz

Rafael Nadal and Karen Khachanov are quickly becoming familiar foes, and they will face each other once more in the U.S. Open third round on Friday. Dominic Thiem and Taylor Fritz are also aiming for spots in the last 16.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (29) Karen Khachanov

In the past two years, Nadal has played Khachanov four times on three different surfaces (hard, clay, and grass) and the Spaniard has not yet lost a set. The two men last met just a few weeks ago in the semifinals in Toronto, where the Russian kept the match respectably close, but still went down in straights.

Unfortunately for Khachanov, Nadal was still looking for his hard-court groove in Toronto. Based on his impressive performance against Canada’s Vasek Pospisil in the second round, Nadal’s hard-court tennis (especially his serve) has kicked into high gear.

Khachanov is quite tall at 6’6”, so Nadal’s topspin forehand does not kick up to shoulder-height on the Russian. Still, Nadal owned the court against Pospisil on Wednesday and if he plays anywhere near the same level he should come through in straight sets.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 3

Ricky pick: Nadal in 3

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(9) Dominic Thiem vs. Taylor Fritz

This may just be an opportunity for Fritz to find his way into the round of 16. Thiem, the Austrian who has distinguished himself on clay courts, has not performed well off his preferred surface. His results in New York this week are his best on a hard court since the Australian Open in January.

Fritz enjoyed a strong start to the 2018 season but he has struggled of late, as well. He had a good showing at the Indian Wells Masters, where he reached the round of 16; coming into New York, though, he had not won two matches in a row since May.

Thiem heads into the third round off a five-set win over American Steve Johnson, while Fritz’s second-round opponent Jason Kubler retired after going down two sets to one in the brutal New York City heat earlier in the week.

Cheryl pick: Thiem in 4

Ricky pick: Thiem in 4

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214 Comments on U.S. Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Khachanov, Thiem vs. Fritz

    • Rafa Rules-

      No way! I don’t care if they played on an indoor skating rink- on Ashe Stadium, at the US Open, Karen can’t even get a SNIFF at Rafa.

      Don’t get me wrong, Karen is a decent up-and-coming player. But at the majors, against Big 3, he only has like a 0.01% chance of winning, in my opinion.

      I watched Rafa play under the Ashe roof last year, in person, and he was fine.

      Rafa in straights, losing no more than 11 games.

  1. This start by Rafais a joke. He needs to wake up. He doesn’t break Khachanov but gets broken himself. Way up make it a match early on. I am so fed up with this.

    • Yep!! But this break is what Rafa needs to up his level! He broke himself so he knows how hard he has to fight and remain focus!

      VAMOS!!

  2. Here’s my analysis from yesterday that I wasn’t able to post all day:

    Rafa looked a lot better in R2, but it was slightly deceptive, as once Pospisil broke serve in the second set, he totally ran out of gas. Nadal served about as well as I’ve seen him do in quite awhile, and if he can keep that up he will be very tough to beat.

    In this match, I think things will be harder for him. Temps will be fairly high and there’s a good chance of rain; Rafa has struggled in very humid weather lately. Khachanov is steadily improving and obviously has the game to overpower Nadal. I think this is the match where he finally takes a set off Rafa.

    Nadal in 4.

  3. I predicted that Rafa would lose his first set in the tournament, most likely the first set.

    Congrats to Me! Right again!

    Fedexol is a homophobic troll. So happy he’s “ignoring” me as he “promised”. (Be even better if he knew what either of those words actually meant.)

  4. He has broken. Should relax him. He is still playing within his range, is Rafa. Conservative. If he gets ahead, watch out for him opening his sholders. Glad he finally broke.

  5. Another huge hold for Karen. The moment he drops his intensity, Nadal takes over. His only chance is to play with maximum aggression.

  6. Serve is just sliding in. Movement is tentative. I dont know whats up with him today. Looks concerned. Plays an awful game at 5-5.

  7. Oh God!Stupid Rafa to give the ball back to kachanov!…He could placed the ball to the empty space to kachanov’s right!!…Brain block from Rafa!!Urgh!!

  8. I think whether Rafa is so nervous or respect Karen very much coz Karen gave him a tough 1st set in Toronto 3 weeks ago…Rafa won 75…that’s why he played like s@#$ in the 1st set here…

    And Hawks!….U r absolutely spot on with your prediction bro!….Hehehe…Rafa will win in 4 sets yeah??

  9. I am over this! Just inexcusable! Now Khachanov will really be feeling it! Great way to have to battle it out now! This is disgusting!

    Take off Cincy! Take a few weeks off and have a holiday! Then come out and play like crap and give away the first set!

  10. So now Rafa has knee issue? Whats he doing?

    His serve is horrible, things not looking good for him now. He really played a crappy first set with two horrible service game. Dont know when he can fix that serve problem that has plagued him for the whole season.

  11. You guys are so negative! Do you not remember how last year Rafa lost the first set in like half his matches at US Open, only to win the next 3 very easily? This is a best-of-5 major! It’s one set! At least wait until he loses another set this match before we act like his tournament is over!

  12. Well if he is injured not his fault, but if he has knee probs he should be trying to shorten points and not run around! So S&V!

  13. Almost an hour for the first set! If Rafa is going to win this match, he may take 3 to 4 hours! Is that good for his knees?

    Why cant he just concentrate a bit more on his own service game to hold serve?

    • I dont think its an excuse. But just see the sudden drop in pace today versus 2nd round in his serve. He is not jumping up.

      Backhand is bad. He is tentative.

      • I am not okay with him losing here. I do not understand how you get hurt when you haven’t even been playing.

        Yes, I am angry. That was the point of skipping Cincy.

        But maybe it’s best if I just stop watching for a while to get it together.

        • NNY, u r right to be angry! After all, we dont want Rafa to lose, esp not to crappy play!! Not to this kid for sure, who we know wont even make it past the next round, choops!!!

  14. And in God’s name he standing sooooo far back behind the baseline???….Short balls everywhere!!….Rafa clearly don’t feel his balls very well now!….Red alert!Red alert!!

  15. This is why I rarely watch him live anymore.

    Few easy matches. He frequently makes matches closer than they need to be. Incredible that he is No. 1 despite this.

    Glad I’m not watching this.

  16. God!….I can’t stand to see him being bossing around by Karen!

    And thanks for the links Hawks!…That’s what i thought too!…He must be anxious or nervous over something!…Can’t take adv of BP over & over agaian…

  17. Poor game plan by Rafa, preferring to defend more than anything else; doom to fail. He prefers doing all the running despite having his knee taped.

    I thought he would raise his level after losing the first set, instead he played even worse tennis after having his knee taped.

    • The power is not there with knee taped . His FH is also suffering . BH is anyway tough on that right knee. I think Rafa and his team knew about this issue for sure.

      Or Maybe even stress causes the knee to break down along with tough HC surface. He is not limping but the problem is there.

      Dont understand what went wrong. Maybe heat and humidity took its toll.

  18. Khachanov playing great tennis and serving big when it counts. Nadal is still in it, but he needs to up his game if he’s going to come back.

    • Very solid from Kachanov. And he believes he can win it. Rafa feels his opponent’s confidence and is very tensed. The Russian understood the only way to beat Rafa is to be very aggressive and go for the winners. Rafa has stop being so defensive and put more pressure.

  19. After the bookmakers make him the favourite to win,and now he give the s@#$ perfomance!….Urgh!!…I’m so angry too Nny!!

  20. Really dislike this Rafa; just when hes to defend a non clay slam, he has to play like this! And he’s playing well in his two previous rounds.

    Evrn if he wins this match, hes not looking good at all for the later round opponent(s). So much for being called the favorite, and that’s why I dont like the idea of calling anyone favorite even before ths tournament starts.

  21. I only have live scores and it’s exhausting looking and not knowing what is going on. From your comments it looks like something is wrong😢
    Think I am going to quit as this is no fun.
    Even if rafa is playing rubbish he has had more break points he just hasn’t converted them so it’s not a hopeless cause…
    Or maybe that’s wishful thinking..

  22. I give up on this Rafa! After breaking serve he lost his serve immediately! I have not seen a no.1 player with such poor service game!

  23. So is this the end of Rafa in 2018 USO then with being 2 sets down?

    Come on wake up Rafa. Show who is the Boss and World No.1

    Vamos Rafa

  24. Breakathon! But whats the point of breaking serve when you cant hold your own serve after that??

    I totally dislike the way Rafa plays here, extremely defensive, standing in line with the line judge to hit his shots, no wonder Khacharov could feast on the short balls and hit all those winners.

    • Lucky, I have never seen so many short balls in my life before! At this point even I can beat Rafa!!!

      Thank God the roof is closing, giving Rafa time to reboot his brain!!! I think before match, it underwent a forced shut down!!!

    • He’s playing worse tennis than Fed or Djoko here! Very disappointing if its the pressure of defending the title thats affecting him.

      I really dont understand why Rafa plays like this when he has beaten Khachanov at Toronto and has played well in R1 and R2 here.

      Even if its a change from night to day, it shouldnt affect him that much. I know Khachanov is serving and hitting well but Rafa should have all the tools to deal with him. Rafa is just crappy today, against a tough opponent that makes things worse.

  25. Hmmmh…Maybe rain break can make Rafa regrouped & come back stronger…Like in Rome vs Zverev?Who knows??After all,rain saved Rafa multiple times already in his career…

  26. nadull is the luckiest butt picker in this world. this kid was frying him and now he cheats his way out of trouble lol. tio tony school.

  27. From what we’ve seen so far,honestly it’s a recipe for disaster…But..is it??…Let’s find out!…I sure will curse Rafa a bucket if he lose today!

  28. Rafa will surely not lose now… Any time he gets gifted a rain delay to regain his composure, he always comes back out a different player. Moya or whoever is coaching this fortnight is probably ripping him a new one right now.

    I call it- just like at RG, Rafa is going to come out playing as if there never was a first set. I predict final score line to be something like 5-7, 7-5, 6-3, 6-2 Rafa.

  29. Oh yeah!Did u guys see the clip where they showed he testing his knees in waiting room?He definitely feeling discomfort in his knees….Now we know the reason!

      • only Rafa can give us so much stress!!lol

        That is because he loves his fans soooooo……much!lol

        Yeeehaw….nadal finally woke up and won the 2nd set after I woke him up with my post above!lol

        DJoker AUGUST 31, 2018 AT 8:22 PM
        So is this the end of Rafa in 2018 USO then with being (correction=nearly) 2 sets down?

        Come on wake up Rafa. Show who is the Boss and World No.1

        Vamos Rafa

  30. Total collapse by Khachanov. Just couldn’t keep it together in his last two service games. Crowd cheering his double faults didn’t help. Let’s see if he can regroup.

  31. This match is just crazy with the ups and downs. I am watching but refrained from posting just try to hang in there.

    Pam Shriver interviewer Carlos Moya as the roof was being closed and said that Rafa’s knee was sore. But he says he has pain in that knee. It is just something he deals with. Moya is really savvy and in the end he said that Rafa would come back to win the second set.

    • He doesnt have confidence in his knee, not trying to press it too hard. Couldve served better without the knee issue and makes life easier for him.

      To me, he just doesnt move inside the court enough, just staying so far back and hitting his shots very short. Hes also returning from too far back esp at the deuce court; not hitting enough DTL shots too.

    • It’s not easy to play aggressive against this kind of power, especially when Rafa is returning serve. Rafa is playing better now, but Khachanov is not going away. If he can keep serving well, it will be a long match.

  32. Karen to stay in the set, 4-5. This is where it is so hard to stay loose when playing the world #1. Any nerves creep in, and Nadal will be ready to pounce.

  33. This set deserves a tie-breaker. Let’s see if Khachanov can hold one more time here. I really like the way he’s played this match so far.

  34. What a shame that Khachanov has to throw in 2 DFs to go with some great tennis. Can’t give Nadal those kind of breaks and still expect to win.

    Both players are going for everything in this TB; no holding back!

  35. Not only does he wake up, he gets satisfaction by making you pay for the missed opportunity. It becomes a psychological battle of “will I pay” and “I’m going up mais you pay”. It’s like an arm wrestle.

  36. Wow, Karen does not blink! Awesome three points in a row, capped with a massive FH.

    Terrible time for ump to give Nadal a time warning, but he varies his serving pace deliberately. Earlier, McEnroe was commenting on how Rafa was serving quickly when he was ahead in the service game.

  37. I guess it’s just me but I thought Nadal played really really well in that breaker. Same with Khachanov other than serving three doubles. Both guys were just destroying the ball in some animalistic rallies. You guys know Rafa doesn’t have to be balls-to-the-walls making every first serve and not missing a single shot to be playing well right? Maybe not his very best but he looks fucking great out there to me. And his backhand is awesome now

    • Right, Benny. Nadal has not played poorly in this match, though he obviously hasn’t played his best, especially on serve. But Karen is playing very, very well. Shame about all those DFs; apart from those he played great in the TB.

  38. Despite the choking df’s in the tiebreak, I think this has been a big step for Karen. Judging by how meekly he went down to Rafa in their previous matches, he has obviously really stepped up his competitiveness. There is no way that Rafa will lose now after winning that breaker, and Karen obviously choked big time with those df’s, but I really think that Karen can walk away today feeling like he accomplished something. Not many people can challenge non-2015/2016 Rafa at a major…

    • Yeah, obviously Karen will be disappointed but he surely has a lot to be proud of. First he irritated the hell out of me for serving the way he did and hanging in with Rafa!!! But I like him! Hope he is able to rise in the rankings

      • You’re right, Jim Courier, that his game hasn’t really progressed. I was strictly talking about his ability to compete on ANY level at all. In their previous matches he looked like he didn’t even belong on the court with Rafa, he looked so shook. Today he at least showed up and imposed his own game on Rafa, which is how you beat him. The problem today was the same as it is for all these young dudes when facing Rafa, especially in best-of-5- you have to take it to Rafa so hard, for so long, and you CANNOT relent!!

        If you’re being aggressive but start missing your shots, and maybe get broken, you HAVE TO keep pounding away! These dudes should watch the 5th set of AO 2017. When Rafa breaks you in a 5th set, in a final, it is sooo easy to convince yourself that playing aggressive tennis is just too risky now that he’s up a break on you, and they start playing safe, hoping that Rafa will break himself back. That is EXACTLY what Rafa will never, ever do! You must keep being aggressive, even if it doesn’t work in the end. It’s the only way.

        In that 5th set, think about how many break-back points Fed had that he lost because either Rafa was too solid or because Fed missed. Fed said that they had discussed how to react to that very situation. Ljubicic specifically told him that no matter how many break-back chances Rafa snuffed out, to just keep on going for his shots and being aggressive, and don’t think at all about the fact that you’re down a break. It’s obviously way easier said than done, and it’s very risky, but it is truly the only way to beat Rafa in those kinds of matches.

        Even when Rafa is having a relatively off day like today, he is still going to beat a guy like Khachanov almost every time, even just with his competitive will and athleticism.

        I know it’s a cheesey cliche, but if you are going to beat Rafa at a major, you truly do have to out-Rafa Rafa in terms of never letting up for even a second. And Rafa can sense the MOMENT a guy gives even the slightest indication that they might be backing down… That’s when Rafa will raise his level in a split second, and before the other guy even realizes what happened, the match is over.

        It isn’t only because of their tennis skill that the Big 3 have won like 99.99999% of majors for the last like like 14 years. I would say it’s even more so that they just such a huge cut above everyone else on the competitiveness front. They imposed their will so powerfully over the years that even when they weren’t playing their best, or were pushed deep, they so often found a way to win. Because even though they were always in the moment, it was instilled in their hearts that they KNEW they could win no matter what.

        • I think the problem with most of these guys is that they focus too much on being afraid to lose than focusing on wanting to win!!!

          When Rafa just came on tour that was his attitude!! He never feared losing, he played to win!!! AS he got older the pressure of being on top got to him a little and u could see his attitude changed to being afraid to lose, and then thats when he started battling nerves!

        • Kevin, I think you’re exactly right: the best way (the only way for many) to beat Nadal is to stay aggressive. However, I think that’s exactly what Khachanov did today. He basically beat himself in the 2nd and 3rd sets through DFs at crucial points. In fact, I’m hard pressed to think of a match at a major which has hinged so clearly on double faults. A big part of that was nerves, of course, but it was also that Karen was going for huge serves even on his second serve and even at crucial points.

          Besides the DFs, Nadal played the biggest points incredibly well, notably at the very end of the crucial 3rd set. That was the difference in this match.

          I think Khachanov has been steadily improving and maturing this year. I loved the way he played this match, and especially that he never let down even when he must have been feeling like he blew his best chances. The area where he can improve the most is at the net. If he ever becomes comfortable moving forward, he can be a devastating player. He moves probably better than anyone else his size in the game, he is solid from both sides, and he has a massive serve. Improve at the net and he can be great.

  39. Even if im unhappy with Rafa’s play at the mo’, u have to give him props for being 2:1 up without yet having served a single ace!! Considering how many Karen has served!!! If wasn’t for Karen’s serves, he would have been in the locker room already!!!

  40. Khachanov lives by the sword (serve), dies by the sword.

    BTW, Rafa is moving better now, more willing to move inside the court often. Dont understand why it takes him so long to do so. I know Khachanov was very aggressive earlier on in the match but still, Rafa could have played closer to the baseline to avoid hitting too short.

    Rafa is playing average tennis this match even if he wins it now.

  41. Nadals whole game is based on massive topspin to let his opponent make errors . If that doesn’t work for whatever reason , he’s nothing special .Average,you said it.

    • Big Al, i normally dont get cross about comments here but u really are talking rubbish!!

      Rafa is average?!!!! A 17 GS winner?!! Average?!!! Just go back under the rock you crawled from!!! Choops!!

      Granted he didn’t play his best, but here us absolutely nothing average about Rafa!! Just asked the players on tour?!!! Esp Roger!!

      • Lucky said he was average in this match,just pointing out that yes, he can be ,and even mentally weak when his big weapons are not working.

        • Big Al, don’t twist my words! I said Rafa was average in this match, not that he’s an average player!

          Well, Fed without his serve is pretty ordinary a tennis player to say the least; Djoko without his incredible sliding and defending is just another ordinary player I must say!

          • Fair enough.Average for Rafa,Nole,Fed is still well above most other people’s.
            Actually I was enjoying the match,but so disappointed how Kgach double faulted on big points.If u do that against Rafa,u ‘ve lost.

  42. I think Rafa closest rivals will be very happy seeing rafa got dragged to 4hrs today…And if he meet with DelPo later,will be spend another 4,And with Anderson??Brrr!!….scared to think!!

      • I have been watching Basilashvilli this tournament, and he has really impressed me. I think he will give Nadal a more difficult match than anyone is imagining. However, I can’t get out of my head the absolute thrashing Rafa gave him at RG last year. I can’t remember ever feeling like a player was so thoroughly outclassed than in that match. As I say, though, this is a different surface, and I think Basil is a different player than he was last year.

  43. My God this is just unreal. He holds serve easily intil it comes times to serve for the match. It’s enough to make you sick. This will encourage his rivals. A match of this length and a wonky knee? Not a good combination,

    One has to have nerves of steel these days to watch Rafa.

    • Indeed!

      This is the worst! I have turned off my TV!! I going to do something else!! Not ONE point on ure serve serving for the match?!! Incredulous!!

  44. I had to stop watching. It becomes an exercise in martyrdom. He is killing himself in a third round match. We know now his knee has been sore. This is just hard to see him in this brutal battle.

  45. Rafa wins the match finally, not convincingly.

    Khachanov plays well but Rafa is beyond horrible, serve broken again and again; he plays like a no.50 player in this match; Khachanov looks the higher ranked player!

  46. Future not looking good for Rafa here. He’s lucky to win this match when playing so poorly; Khachanov choked with all those DFs.

    I’m certain he’s no longer the favourite to win here. And, Nike please do away with pink attire for Rafa; each time he wore pink attire, he’s bound to suffer, and lost more than he won.

  47. With sore knee, who knows, he may withdraw from his next match. I don’t know how that sore knee could withstand 4 hours of play without getting worse. I’m being realistic here, not negative.

  48. As soon as draw came out I told the third round is a landmine against Karen. Thank God he passed.

    What’s issue with knee. Did he come taped or taped it mid match ? This is real bad if his knee is injured

    • I didn’t see the match (yet) but the commies said he had the knee taped twice during the match. At the end interview Rafa seemed to think he’d keep playing and was very happy to be through. But he’s not going to know how the knee is until at least tomorrow…h’mmm, I see Rafa took the tape off after the match.

      I am going to rejoice in today’s very hard earned victory and let Rafa & team take care of the next match. Fwiw the commies were very pumped about the match – and so was Rafa. I love that man so much.

  49. Carole Bouchard‏ @carole_bouchard · 3h3 hours ago

     More

    Moya : “Rafa’s knee felt sore but nothing to worry about. Sometimes he feels it more than other but he deals with it really well so that’s not an excuse.”

  50. Genny SS Retweeted

    Rafameila‏ @Rafameila · 3h3 hours ago

     More

    Please be well Rafa
    (Taken right before the match) seems he felt something in his knee

  51. Will try to watch matches on Tennis Channel.
    But he made it, Rafa did. Khachanov winning that first set must of given people watching it a fright.

    And for my bracket…..good news that Anderson beat Shapo. But only just!

  52. I am not sure what you all think but this match could be parallel to his third round last year where he played okay and won and then turned it around. He was very nervous about this match as per Moya

    “He needs to step in a little bit more. He’s really nervous. He needs to change his return position to be closer to the baseline and play aggressive. But he’s still alive”, Moya

  53. I have decided to just enjoy the moment and not think too far ahead. It’s up to Rafa and his team to handle the knee. Carlos Moya did speak to ESPN’s Pam Shriver about the knee. He did not feel it was serious but clearly it was bothering Rafa early in the match. We don’t know what this match did to it.

    I guess my concern is that Rafa did all the right steps by getting time off and not playing in any grass warm up tournaments before Wimby. He has time off after Wimby. But he went further at Wimby after seven years. Then he played at Toronto and skipped Cincy. More time off. We certainly can’t accuse him of overplaying like he did after the USO.

    It all depends on how the knee is tomorrow.

  54. Looks like Rafa is always nervous! I remember he also felt nervous playing against Schwartzman in the QF at RG.

    Rafa’s not the only long match, I see Anderson/Shapo had gone five sets; Stan/Raonic may be a long one too (now in first set TB), Delpo vs Verdasco may be another.

    • Tignor is a great tennis writer, but Rafa is a much better analyst. Go watch his post match presser if you want the facts.

      As for Rafa’s “nerves” they have always been there and will always (imo) be there. He needs them. They are the fuel of his competitive fire.

      • Ramara, re: Tignor’s article, I think you both have a point. Tignor ist right insofar as Rafa’s statistics in hotly contests matches have gone down since 2015/16. He lost a number of very important encounters which he should have won, and probably would’ve won pre-2015, but then managed to lose nevertheless. His matches against Fed at the Aussie Open final and against the Djoker at Wimby this year are amongst those. Luckily he didn’t have many of those matches after his remarkable resurgence last year, and fortunately he managed to turn this trend around against lesser players. But it might become a concern again against the Djoker or Fed, if he meets one of them in the final. At this point the Djoker is the more likely candidate.
        I don’t think that his next opponent will be as dangerous as Karen about whom I was actually very, very nervous. I’m glad that Rafa managed to put him away.
        Fedexal is correct btw: there are still dangerous big hitters lurking in Rafa’s draw, like Anderson, Raonic and Delpo, although he can only meet one of the last two before the semis, and Anderson has already accumulated a lot of mileage himself. Let’s wait and see…

  55. One reason why I still believe that Rafa will have no problem at LEAST getting to the Final is that, according to multiple people/players, the US Open is playing both slower AND higher bouncing than it ever has… Advantage Rafa. I’m actually surprised that Khachanov was able to impose his game on Rafa as well as he was able to, given the conditions. Although when you have a serve that big, I suppose it doesn’t really matter the conditions. Also, if it’s bouncing higher, a hard serve can fly through the air more. So I dunno. All I know is that similar to the conditions here last year, it favors Rafa’s game a lot.

    Rafa played subpar in his early matches last year, and still won the title quite easily. I know that if he were to face Novak or Fed this year then it will be a tougher road to the title than last year, but at very least I don’t see him losing to anyone in his half. I could see Del Po testing him as usual, but also losing to Rafa was usual at a slam.

    • Khachanov is 6’5″, a pretty big guy and has a good 2h backhand to go with the big serve so the top spin isn’t going to trouble him much.

      Rafa’s going to need his knees to get thru the USO. He’s optimistic but only time will tell.

      • Yup, that’s why I was very nervous prior to this encounter. The guy is definitely one of those who have the requisite tools to trouble Rafa on non-clay courts.

    • The knee! Now that he won the match, we can talk about his knee. To me his knee is/was the issue; he couldn’t put much weight on it when he’s serving and perhaps that’s why he’s serving poorly the whole match; his every service game was a torture for him and for us!

      I hope his knee can hold up at least for the rest of the tournament, hope his R4 opponent doesn’t have a big serve so that he may be a little bit less nervous. The more nervous he is, the more mistakes he makes.

      I’m just glad that at the end of the day, his competitive nature took over, helping him fighting for every point out there and he won the match eventually. He’s so pumped up after the win, saying that winning a match when not playing his best tennis helped in giving him confidence, in the match(es) to come.

      • Next round would be easy. But Anderson is serving huge and he is a very confident player this year. Rafa’s draw is not easy.

        The problem is you can hope to get thru a match or at maximum 2 matches at a time with dodgy knee. Here its not even halfway thru. And Rafa has some big hitters in his draw.

        He needs to win free points on his serve to get thru.

  56. Biggest concern was his serve., And Rafa served and played well in his 2nd round versus today. And thats all because he could not put weight on knee.

  57. I’d still have Rafa as favourite at this point. He might not have played his best, but he still played reasonably well, and you don’t need to peak in round three of a slam. Get these sorts of wins as you move through the rounds, and confidence can build up form. Khachanov would very likely have caused serious problems for anyone the way he was playing, so if I was a Rafa fan I would not be too worried by one tough four-setter. Draw gets easier from here anyway.

    If Djokovic or Federer were setting the world alight then sure, I’d have them as favorites, but neither of them are. Fed has played well in barely any matches in recent months. Djokovic is back to a high level, but he is definitely not in world-beater mode, he’s already dropped sets this tournament.

  58. Apart from his serve, I don’t think Nadal played poorly at all today. He made very few unforced errors. Khachanov just played great, and when you have that much firepower and are on your game, it’s tough to deal with. Nadal was better in the biggest points, and that was the difference. But give Karen a lot of credit for playing a great match apart from some crucial DFs.

      • Well, most of the time he was defensive it was because he couldn’t deal with Khachanov’s power on serve or ground-strokes from the baseline. He had to step back and that leads to defensive play.

  59. It’s his serve that’s the concern, I mean how many times he broke serve and then served poorly to lose his own serve right away? It’s almost always in this match. His first serve % wasn’t great I think, below 60%?

    Khachanov played well and he would’ve troubled anyone, even Fed, Djoko and Delpo; but it’s still how poorly Rafa played in his service game after breaking serve that’s shocking. And no, he’s hitting short, because he standing so far back, allowing Khachanov to step in to attack the ball with relative ease. His inability to vary his court position at or behind the baseline was a problem and it took him until set 3 or 4 to be able to step inside the court, thus he’s playing better in both sets.

    • Did you notice serve speed? It was down as well. Also I thought he played a great second round. Pospisil was hitting huge as well. But Rafa served very well and had more control. He was winning service games very easily .

  60. Only good part was that he never looked in pain. Also Rafa is playing first, so he would get 2 days off. Question is when ? Before QF or before SF ?

    • Did not understand your message..you mean 2 days off before? I think he plays 4th round Sunday…then qf Tuesday..semis on Friday..so 2 days off before semi looks like

      • I think Rafa will win 4th round . That guy does not have a big game and serve.

        But Anderson is serving huge. But he has played two 5 setters. If he plays a long match with Theim, I think he would be cooked up. Plus he has his own set of medical problems.

  61. The knee is the biggest elephant in the room…had the knee not been a question…Rafa would have easily gone to semis atleast..delpo is always a threat n I doubt either coric or isner/raonic will take him down.

    A tough match always gives Rafa confidence at uso (watch last year 3rd round)…only if there was not a knee sword hanging …however Rafa’s presser he looked ok…though he said he hopes to be 100 percent for next match.

  62. Rafa won!! I only had live scores so I went to bed thinking he was 2 sets to love down and bound to lose judging from the comments here! Someone here said he lost the second set!! Man was i fed up getting up this morning thinking he had lost to khachanov!!

  63. Actually this match could be a stepping stone for Rafa winning the whole thing. He always says that winning when you are playing poorly matters the most as does Toni. Surely battling through this and managing to stay positive enough to win will give him confidence. He won 2 tie breakers against a big server as well!

  64. I saw Kachanov play his second round match on the court 10 and it was only then that I realized what it means for them to be able to play on Ashe stadium! It is reasonable for Kachanov and other lower ranked players to give their very best and “die” on the court!

    I thought Kachanov was rather ordinary in his second round match but I did post a comment here saying that he hit hard and could sustain the rallies with Rafa but would not make a big problem for Rafa! It would have been like that if it wasn’t for Rafa’s obvious knee issue. We all know even a smaller physical problem creates huge doubts in Rafa’s head due to his history of injuries..,and it immediately affected his fragile first serve percentage….

    Overall I don’t think Rafa played that bad, but Kachanov did grab the opportunity on weakened Rafa and played very welll yet insufficient to beat the King!

    If Rafa’s knee is ok he should be fine in his next few matches.., his big obstacle I see in Delpo …

    Vamos Champ!

    • Yes Natashao I also think if rafa was worrying about his knee it will obviously have affected his whole game. It’s very hard to serve well if you don’t want to put pressure on your knees!

  65. I agree with you Amy. I See this more as a stepping stone match for Rafa. He said on clay he prefers matches to be over fast as he has inbuilt confidence there largely but on hc he needs a tough match to get the confidence. If moya said that Rafa is nervous in the match, it means he saw this match as the crucial one. Let’s not forget that kachanov ran him very close at Toronto too…64 76. Rafa said there he hits really hard and serves very well. When the draw came out the first thing I said is kachanov in third round is anything but easy n wished he had drawn someone else from 25 -32( not kyrgios).

    If Rafa wins 4th…it may Not be Anderson, it could be thiem too n he is no pushover…if he knows Rafa is hampered…he will go all out.

    Btw Amy how could you sleep till you knew the result…I could not sleep till 5 am till match got over and I wasnt even watching 🙂 yes the comments on this thread which I read later were so depressing too 🙂

    • I took a sleeping pill sanju!☺
      I have had a really horrible time recently as my new neighbour has been persecuting me with her noise so I had to try and sleep!but yeah I woke up in a lousy mood thinking he had lost!so I am actually really chipper today having found out the good news. I do think this match could be just what rafa needs to fire him up! Providing his knee is ok that is….yes I remember you talking about khachanov sanju…good catch on that one!!☺
      Tbh i never look far ahead in tourney s it’s always step by step with me as there are always unforeseen twists and turns.
      Winning ugly is very important…do think it gives rafa a big boost!!

  66. If you’d watched the match, I doubt you could stay positive, when Rafa got broken, tried hard and finally broke back, and yet in his next service game immediately following, he lost his own serve!

    It didn’t help that he had low first serve %, at one stage at 48% and Khachanov was feasting on his weak second serve; not to mention all the short balls from Rafa when he was hitting way behind the baseline. Adding to all those, he got his knee taped during the second set, that made things worse!

    I seriously thought Rafa was going to lose the match, because he got his knee taped during the match and was serving poorly, playing defensively having to run so much. As it turned out, his knee wasn’t that bad and he really upped his level in set three and four, got nervous when serving for the match, got broken and had to fight to win the TB in the fourth set to win the math.

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