U.S. Open R4 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Millman, Djokovic vs. Sousa

Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are one round away from a potential U.S. Open quarterfinal contest. They first have to get past unseeded surprises John Millman and Joao Sousa, respectively, on Monday.

John Millman vs. (2) Roger Federer

Millman is through to the fourth round of major for the first time in his career and his reward is what should be an incredible experience but also a brutally tough matchup on Monday at the U.S. Open. He will be going up against Federer for the second time in his career, with the Swiss having won their only previous encounter 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 three years ago on the hard courts of Brisbane. More than three full seasons later, Federer is still flying high at 37 years old. The Swiss already owns one Grand Slam title in 2018 (Australian Open) and his bid for another in New York is underway with straight-set wins over Yoshihito Nishioka, Benoit Paire, and Nick Kyrgios.

Although Millman is in the midst of his best year on tour, his run to the second week could not have been forecasted. The 55th-ranked Australian’s post-Wimbledon swing had included a pair of second-round exits on clay and immediate losses in both Cincinnati and Winston-Salem. Suddenly, though, Millman finds himself playing on Labor Day following defeats of Jenson Brooksby, Fabio Fognini, and Mikhail Kukushkin. The underdog will enjoy himself in this one, but he does not have anything close to the firepower necessary to trouble Federer in the five-time U.S. Open champion’s current form.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 8-10 games

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(6) Novak Djokovic vs. Joao Sousa

Djokovic and Sousa will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers on Monday. All four of their previous meetings have gone Djokovic’s way and it has been complete domination on every occasion, to the extent that he has taken all 11 of their sets without anything being more competitive than 6-4. They faced each other in the U.S. Open third round in 2013, when the Serb cruised 6-0, 6-2, 6-2.

Turning things around drastically from comeback pains earlier in 2018, Djokovic established himself as the odds-on favorite in Flushing Meadows by winning Wimbledon for the fourth time and capturing a first-ever title at the Cincinnati Masters. The world No. 6 has maintained his high standard with first-week victories over Marton Fucsovics, Tennys Sandgren, and Richard Gasquet. Like Millman, Sousa is also competing in round four of major for the first time in his career. The 68th-ranked Portuguese accomplished the feat by ousting Marcel Granollers, Pablo Carreno Busta, and Lucas Pouille. Sousa is coming off two tough matches while Djokovic raised his level considerably against Gasquet on Saturday night, so everything points to another lopsided affair in this head-to-head matchup.

Pick: Djokovic in 3 losing 8-10 games

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117 Comments on U.S. Open R4 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Millman, Djokovic vs. Sousa

  1. Fed in 3, Nole in 3.

    Sousa is a hard-court specialist, and I would love to say that he’ll take a set off of Djoker, but there’s no way I can bring myself to do that.

  2. Would love to see Fed get another straight sets victory here and if he can bring anything close to his best form that should be enough. However, the chance of Fed bringing another R2 level performance is non-trivial. Age is the wild-card from here on out.

    Novak should win in straights as well, but something tells me this will not be as easy as the Gasquet match. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Novak lose concentration for awhile and drop a set.

    Odds of dropping a set to Millman are lower than Djoker dropping a set to Sousa, but odds of Fed failing to make the QF are higher.

  3. Fed in 4

    Millman won a set vs the great Roger 3 years ago.

    Can’t Millman win the same 1 set (or even 2) against an OLDER roger who is 37 years old.

    Millman is playing solid tennis with strong serving and returning.

    Millman is in good form currently with 3 solid wins here.

    Is younger than Fed by 8 years and will have more energy in the QF’s, which is will be a crucial advantage for Millman as/if the match goes to 4 or 5 sets.

    Like the over to win.

    Joker in 3

    Joker does everything better than Sousa and has far more experience in big matches and Slams! Couple of sets may be tight though.

  4. That was such a fun match to watch between Osaka and Sabalenka! wow. And I see the only one on the bracket that picked Osaka to the final was Eugene – Good picking, Eugene! I hope she wins her QF, SF and it would be great if she could win the whole thing! She’s such a sweetheart.

    Nole was doing the very least required to get through his match vs Joao Sousa in straight sets – it was too hot out there. Well done, Nole 😀 Well done Kei, Kei too.

    Federer in 3, I think.

      • Tennis a nice escape from what’s happening in the US ATM.

        Nice to see Bill Clinton in the crowd tonight. A reminder of saner times.

        Also not disappointed to see Cheaterpova have her 23-0 night match undefeated streak broken.

        #FDT
        #FGOP

  5. It’s miserable wet out there. Look at Millman’s shorts and shirt. He should take off the cap. It’s useless at this point – no sun. Just a wet cap

  6. I think we already know who is going to win this USO but some of us will never admit!!

    Novak is going to win this. Rafa and Roger are playing like crap!! They r really beginning to show their age!!

    #NotANovakFan

    • Monalisa….I think Novak will win too…but my prediction based more on Rafa’s stamina/energy than his crappy play…I think if he successfully go to the final,he will find a way to produce his best tennis against Nole[very possibly] @ other opponents…
      But what worries me is the time he spend on court en route to the final…He needs as fresh legs & fit as possible to face Nole/them…

      But despite that,i’m still clinging that magic will happen for our Rafa…..

      • I don’t know, as long as Rafa is physically 100%, he is just going to be so hard to put away on this court. I feel like if Rafa is going to beat Novak on a hard court again, I think it’s going to be this one. It fits Rafa’s game perfectly- nice high bounce, and it’s really difficult to put people away. I know Rafa can beat Novak here. We will just have to wait and see, assuming they meet.

  7. Fed looks injured. Milman is someone who he would beat in his sleep. First serve percentage is all time low. Anyway if he scrapes thru this he would lose.

    Amazing to see that Rafa and Roger after nice time off in between are not 100%. And Djoker is !!

    • Hey, don’t lump Rafa into this level of play. He’s not playing this badly.

      I mean this is bad.

      But Millman has belief and is pushing him which is the only way to play him. Too many like Kyrgios step onto the court with no belief. Too many free rides. Just goes to show what a bit of confidence will do.

  8. Better attitude = better weapon!

    But puh-leeeze someone remind Roger of how to play tennis. He can’t have totally forgotten during the last set.

    Ah. Hawks, maybe Fed is channeling you and decided 4 easy matches is no way to prepare for the Djoker, so he decided to make it harder!

    #goodthinking

    • Yes he’s fine Ramara.

      Although some fedfan tried to say that Federer doesn’t use the injury excuse.

      We are all human. We should not make our sports heroes a religious experience. They are not Gods.

  9. Dude…. This is scary bad from Fed! He so tense, it’s almost hard to watch. He’s just hitting so many little sitters to Millman, and Millman is just teeing off.

    Props to Millman, though! That dude is competing his ass off and loving it out there. He’s got surprisingly good crowd support, too.

    • He’s certainly struggling with something? Er, could he be afraid to face Djokovic again? Nah. Oh dear, that was bad…

      Ok, I need my sleep, it’s almost midnight here. Y’all get Fed through this, y’hear? I will NOT be denied my Fedole match!

      • That’s the problem Ramara…many times in the past,the projected RaRoger/Fedole/Rafole that we longed to see not happened…Maybe bcoz we expect that too much…Tho,Fed still playin’ in this match…

        But,if Fed goes thru tonight,there is no way he will beat Nole…Unless Nole suddenly injured or have problems etc…

    • I think you’re onto something.

      Wasn’t the last time either.

      Skipped playing Nole at the WTF title match just to play a few days later to win DC with Stan the Whatever.

      • Thanks hawks. Yeah it hasn’t been easy. I just can’t believe he lost that 40-15 lead with two set points up 5-4 in the second. It’s been a ridiculously unexpected turnaround. And my god did he tighten up often in that breaker. Also, that forehand at 7-7 by Millman was sick.

      • Hawks-

        I can’t even tell you how grateful I am to not be there right haha… I am, however, in Brooklyn at my friends apartment watching it on tv. It really does hurt to watch. I’ve don’t know if I ever seen him this tense and lost. Could this finally be the end of Fed as we know him?

        I DO, however, have tickets for Wednesday night session, and I was so excited to be able to say I witnessed a Big 4 match. It’s looking pretty doubtful for that right now. Even if Fed did manage to pull this out, I’m not sure if it would be an interesting match vs. Nole…

        I am pumped, though, to see all 4 singles QF matches tomorrow. I’ll be thinking of the Rafa peeps. 🙂

        • Have a great time in NY Kevin and enjoy the Open.

          However, I know what it’s like when your favourite is struggling playing no where near his potential.

          Very strange match indeed.

  10. I heard 10 people cheering when Millman hit that insane winner. About half that number when the poor guy won the second set.

    The only place less quiet is here at the grandstand.

    Patrick McEnroe will not be happy.

  11. Seriously the kind of hate that I see for some posters , some for Fed and some for Nadal makes me pity on people who deal with these guys day to day.

    Its amazing to see the kind of joy some get when the biggest rival of their favorite players is losing . Just goes to show they have no life.

  12. If Fed wins tonight (pretty big “if” at the moment), then I would think he plays pretty loosely with a bit of house money the next match because a win here would be an absolute escape. He can raise his level next round, I’m certain of it. Obviously I don’t know if he will. Nor do I know if he gets out of this one.

  13. Fed just sliced a ball about two miles per hour on his own side. Then sails a slice long. Cmon Fed consolidate the break. You got this man!!

    • If Rafans want Millman to win, that’s perfectly fine. Millman is hard not to root for anyways. He is a really likable guy. Seems to me fedexal is just reaching for some beef with hawks though 😄

  14. I’m becoming spooked by some of these misses by Roger. I mean they are just unsettlingly bad. I don’t usually criticize Fed’s play this heavily, but I can barely watch right now. What the actual crap are some of these drop shots and volley misses?? He is lucky to win if he gets this one. Needs Millman to tighten up a bit.

  15. Fed lost a TB? What a rarity!

    Saw the second set and a bit of the third before going out, Fed was quite bad in his own service game, was able to escape some but Millman soon could break him to win the second set.

    Fed playing like this, even if he finally wins this match, will suffer a beat down at the hands of Djoko!

  16. Oh dear, just saw the live score, so Fed is out of this USO! No more Fed vs Djoko QF for us!

    I think Fed will be third in the race to London after this; Djoko leapfrog him with a QF at USO.

  17. Truly bizarre.

    Commies to the truly great fedfans here. Benny, Kevin, Eugene, abhirf, and others ive forgot to mention Thos site is lucky to have you all. .

    It’s late.

  18. That performance was atrocious. Sorry guys, Benny G is pissed. So pissed he’s speaking in third person. Good on ya for that mental strength and overall performance though Millman. He was just better than Fed tonight, which honestly didn’t take much 🙁

  19. Hahahah Millman talking about his fantasy football draft in the post match interview. Love it. #MoreOfAFantasyBasketballGuyMyselfThough

  20. The “tennis fans” are brutal.

    Nice guy who just won the biggest match of his career not to mention his greatest payday by far and nothing but quiet when he hits incredible winners and cheers when he double faults.

    siclening.

    • The New York crowd? Honestly, I’m quite capable of that sort of behavior in my own room in front of my tv, but NOT while attending a live match.

      I did a little online reading and evidently it was the heat/humidity that got to Federer. He should have stayed with Nike, could have used their new ice vest.

      • I don’t think it’s the venue at all.

        It’s rabid fedfan religion – in the crowd and media that feeds it.

        You always hear from TV commies that the crowd will cheer the underdog because they want to see a longer match. If that was true, then it would happen in Federer matches but it never does – just pure silence when he’s losing and cheering, jeering and disrupting his opponent.

        Happens at all slams and other tournaments where Federer is in the draw.

        They cheer the underdog against the rest of the top four and other perceived threats like Kyrgios because they are a threat to Federer.

        Sickening.

  21. After this Fed is out of race for No 1 this year atleast. He has 2100 points to defend post USO and Rafa has just 1150 types.

    I think the fight will be between Novak and Rafa. Whoever between them wins USO will be the No 1 as Novak is stronger on the courts towards end of the year.

    My wish

    Thiem – choke
    Isner take out Delpo
    Colic take out Novak 🙂

    Just j/k

    Anyways Novak is clearly the fav now and must be laughing a good 15 mns after this match.

  22. Unbelievable. Fed has to be injured, surely? Back,maybe? He was clearly trying to shorten points in the 2nd set, which was the last I saw. Too bad! He didn’t deserve to go out like this!

    Sorry, everyone. And yes, Millman seems like a nice guy, grats to him, big win and all, but the Djoker will eat him for breakfast.

  23. Well, I was at the Ashe last week and attended both daily and night matches. One thing that seemed unbearable to me (and I come from the Mediterranean country) was humidity. I admired players who were able to sustain in the difficult conditions.

    Fed was obviously bothered with something. I hate to see him lose like this! Although I did not expect him to beat Novak I thought he would make a hell of the match and would give Nokebhard time.

    I am sorry for the great Fedfans here. Please do not despair. Let’s hope it was just the unbearable conditions and not the underlying injury that got Fed tonight! I did not see the match though and will watch later, but judging by the comments here Fed was not himself. Cudos to Milman for the best victory of his career!

    • Unfortunately Rafa plays night match y’day as well. Tomorrow is predicted to be warmer as well.

      I am hearing nights are more humid.

  24. Hello everyone. Didn’t see the match. Woke up during the night at 1:1 and 6:5 in the 3rd set. From that moment couldn’t sleep well. When I checked the score in the morning I had the same feeling as last year when I checked the score Fed vs Delpo in the morning. I was prepared to see him losing and therefore didn’t have a reaction. Humidity or not, these kind of matches happen more often now that Fed is getting older. So, it has more to do with his body than weather conditions.

  25. I was only able to watch through Fed going up a break in the 2nd set. Even then, up a set and a break, I had no confidence that fed would win this. He was serving at 10% 1st serves at one point (during the marathon game that he somehow managed to win early in the 2nd). No way he was going to win serving like that. He also was clearly bothered by the humidity.

    All credit to Millman for coming through for the victory. It’s impossible not to like the guy, and honestly, no one can feel sorry for Fed. At least I don’t; he has won more than his share. Even though he wasn’t at his best, I have no problem with him losing to a journeyman like Millman.

    At this point I think the writing is on the wall regarding Fed’s age, however. Unless he has some mystery injury (very unlikely), I think it’s just age finally catching up with him. As Agassi said, when it happens, it happens very fast. It’s hard to remember now that Fed had the best ever start to his career this year. In about six months, it’s all fallen apart. We have to enjoy these great players toward the end of their career while we can.

  26. I was only able to watch through Fed going up a break in the 2nd set. Even then, up a set and a break, I had no confidence that fed would win this. He was serving at 10% 1st serves at one point (during the marathon game that he somehow managed to win early in the 2nd). No way he was going to win serving like that. He also was clearly bothered by the humidity.
    All credit to Millman for coming through for the victory. It’s impossible not to like the guy, and honestly, no one can feel sorry for Fed. At least I don’t; he has won more than his share. Even though he wasn’t at his best, I have no problem with him losing to a journeyman like Millman.
    At this point I think the writing is on the wall regarding Fed’s age, however. Unless he has some mystery injury (very unlikely), I think it’s just age finally catching up with him. As Agassi said, when it happens, it happens very fast. It’s hard to remember now that Fed had the best ever start to his career this year. In about six months, it’s all fallen apart. We have to enjoy these great players toward the end of their career while we can.

  27. I was only able to watch through Fed going up a break in the 2nd set. Even then, up a set and a break, I had no confidence that fed would win this. He was serving at 10% 1st serves at one point (during the marathon game that he somehow managed to win early in the 2nd). No way he was going to win serving like that. He also was clearly bothered by the humidity.

    All credit to Millman for coming through for the victory. It’s impossible not to like the guy, and honestly, no one can feel sorry for Fed. At least I don’t; he has won more than his share. Even though he wasn’t at his best, I have no problem with him losing to a journeyman like Millman.

  28. Disappointing for Fed but I’m happy for Millman. Getting into the last eight is a big achievement in itself. He and De Minaur have showed Kyrgios and Tomic how this sh*t’s actually done.

    I hope Millman can be at least competitive with Djokovic, but I’m not expecting it. I think he suffered a beatdown at Novak’s hands pretty recently if memory serves.

  29. At this point I think the writing is on the wall regarding Fed’s age. As Agassi said, when it happens, it happens very fast. It’s hard to remember now that Fed had the best ever start to his career just this year. In six months, it has all come crashing down. We have to enjoy these great players toward the end of their career while we can.

  30. Just found out the result. Very sorry fed fans especially Benny,Eugene and Kevin. Fed seems to have been struggling for form for a while now. I take no pleasure whatsoever in finding out he’s lost.
    If the humidity got to fed then i am very worried about how rafa is going to deal with it. He suffers far far more than fed does with humidity.

    • Amy,

      Rafa as we all know is bothered by humidity which is way higher during night sessions at USO. However, I was surprised to see him handling it very well this year. I remember Pospisil could hardly breathe during the match with Rafa and although it had to do to a great deal with Rafa’s attritional tennis it’s was also due to difficult conditions. Fed is older and it must have affected him even more…we’ll see how Thiem deals with humidity at night session…

    • So all the more Rafa needs to play more offensive tennis and shortens points. The more he allows his opponent to hang around, the worse it will be for Rafa physically.

      • @lucky,
        Agreed.

        Definitely Rafa should look to shorten the points and we know Thiem likes long rallies and has had success in the past staying in the rallies with Rafa even on clay…

        • Thanks for that Natashao!
          I do worry that the humidity will affect him badly if he gets nervous or under pressure. We all know rafa sweats a lot when nervous even in normal conditions!
          Isn’t thiem supposed to be super fit with all his log carrying marine style training??!
          I suppose the other side of the coin is that rafa is used to sweating a lot so he must have inbuilt mechanisms to deal with it!
          Lucky is right….He has to come out strong and not get caught in a war of attrition!

  31. I just looked up the forecast for New York. At 7 tonight which is when they are scheduled to start the temperature is supposed to be 29c and sunny with light winds and 60% humidity. It is supposed to feel like 37c!!and will be worse on court. Am very worried rafa is going to struggle in these conditions😕

  32. It seems that the weather is the biggest opponent and leveler to the favourites.

    Saw Roger’s post match presser and it really just came down to the oppressive heat and humidity. He added that the roof has made the conditions worse with reduced air circulation.

    Brutal conditions.

    Apparently, Millman trains more in those conditions and almost thrives in them – as he did last night. He held his nerve to close it out but this may have been partially due to Federer’s inability to put any pressure on him as the match wore on.

  33. I think this might be it for Fed. I think he will have tough time winning in AO with Novak back as well. I honestly felt he was lucky this year with scheduling and how draw panned out for him in Australia.

    Fed would be hurting that he lost two matches where he was leading by a fair distance in back to back majors. This year there are 3 matches now with IW final as well where he looked winning.

    With due respect to Millman, this loss will hurt Fed most as Millman does not have a big game. Fed’s confidence and belief must be all time low now.

    Novak’s draw has beautifully panned out.

  34. Have just been reading brad Gilbert ‘s Twitter! Gilbert really gives good value Twitter! He said last night was worse ever he can remember for heat and humidity…and today will be worse! Yikes! Says he is picking Rafa in 4 and that a rafole final is most likely but weather is probably going to create upsets!

  35. Amy it feels 35 to 36 during day with humidity around 50 to 55…at night it feels 28 to 31 with humidity 62 to 68…depends what Rafa prefers now..

      • Its humidity plus heat. The air could be filled with moisture but with low temperature its not unbearable; however heat plus humidity is the killer.

        Mira and myself, we live in tropical countries, our daytime here with heat plus humidity is truly unbearable; at night its still humid but at least cooler so less unbearable.

  36. Btw djkKovic called doctor in 2 of his matches for a chest problem ..what could it be anything he feeling ? Or just some theatrics to unsettle opponent by taking long mtos ?

    • He was obviously nervous as hell, grassgoat. I don’t know why but he clearly was, based off of the excessive sweating (which we rarely ever see from him) and his overall tense and nervous look. Only a tight and nervous player would hit some of the pitiful slices he hit last night (a few on his own side). Plus he lost total confidence when the nerves hit, especially in his backhand, which I haven’t see for a long time. He freaking drop shotted almost every backhand in the final set for pete’s sake.

      • Benny i said above I am really sorry about fed losing. I know it’s horrible to watch when your fave plays really inexplicably badly. The game is impoverished when any of its 3 great players are out of form or injured.
        I hope fed comes back strong!

      • Yeah, the idiot trolls are out in force with this stupid theory! Then there’s the “fans” that are calling for his retirement. Roger said he expects to come back with a strong fall season. I thought he did well at his presser, accepting the loss as sh*t happens.

        In view of climate warming I wonder if the USO shouldn’t reconsider its heat policy. At what point does it become hazardous to play a demanding sport? Do we actually need for someone to drop dead before deciding that it’s just too frickin’ hot to play tennis?

  37. I checked the score last night and was shocked to see them in a third set. Fed really looked done in by the heat. I was really surprised by how he was missing easy shots and getting broken back. Millman looking the fitter player.

    I can’t remember seeing Fed so affected by the humid conditions.

    It’s starting to seem like it’s survival of the fittest.

  38. Rafa says the roof makes little difference to him because it is so high up, unlike Wimbledon.

    The extreme weather is now an equalizer making the rest of the Open wildly unpredictable as we saw last night.

    It will likely just come down to who can handle the conditions better. Rafa tends to struggle in them more often than not. Don’t know about how Thiem deals with it but any equalizer is of benefit to the underdog.

    • Thiem is a hard worker and very fit. And 8 years younger than Rafa. The conditions will favor him. But Rafa’s the smarter player and not exactly a wimp. 🙂 Gonna be tough so we’ll see. I’m just hoping Rafa survives intact.

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