U.S. Open draw analysis: Alcaraz with Sinner in top half, Djokovic’s path favorable

As usual, on paper it’s another three-man battle on the men’s side at a Grand Slam. Only two can be on the same side of the draw, and once again those two are Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. Novak Djokovic, who won the gold medal at the Paris Olympics but is still seeking his first Grand Slam title of the season, has a much easier path through the draw in the bottom half of the bracket.

With the tournament beginning on Monday, it’s time to break down the 2024 men’s singles draw. 

Sinner’s quarter 

Sinner has struggled with a hip injury over the past few months (he also missed the Olympics due to tonsillitis) and now controversy surrounding a positive steroid test from earlier this spring has taken the tennis world by storm. As if the world No. 1 did not already have enough on his plate, his U.S. Open draw is a real stinker. He could face Alex Michelsen in the second round, Tommy Paul in the last 16, and Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals. This stacked section is also home to Stefanos Tsitsipas, Hamburg champion Arthur Fils, and a red-hot Flavio Cobolli in addition to unseeded threats such as Jakub Mensik and Thanasi Kokkinakis. 

Best first-round matchup — (11) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis

What could possibly be the result of a marquee Grand Slam first-round matchup involving Kokkinakis other than a five-set thriller?!?! Tsitsipas may be a sizable favorite, but he has underwhelmed bigtime at the U.S. Open and is not in particularly good form at the moment. Moreover, Kokkinakis always seems to rise to the occasion at majors. Their only previous meeting came in round two of the 2021 Australian Open and it predictably went five sets, won by the Greek 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-1, 6-7(5), 6-4. Expect something similar on Tuesday.

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Best potential second-round matchup – (1) Jannik Sinner vs. Alex Michelsen

Best potential third-round matchup – (24) Arthur Fils vs. (14) Tommy Paul

Possible surprises – For multiple reasons, all of which are obvious, it would be foolish to think that Sinner will dominate his way to the title or even to the semifinals. Paul, Medvedev, and even Felix Auger-Aliassime (if he can get past Mensik in round one) have a great chance to go deep at Sinner’s expense. Three of the projected third-round matchups in this section are Paul vs. Fils, Tsitsipas vs. Auger-Aliassime, and Medvedev vs. Cobolli. Whoever wins those could go a long way.

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Alcaraz’s quarter 

Even though the top half is clearly tougher, Alcaraz’s draw is actually pretty good. It’s the Sinner section that is brutal. The third-ranked Spaniard could run into some difficulty in the third round in the form of Jack Draper, who upset him at Queen’s Club earlier this summer. Other than that, however, it’s a friendly road to the semis. No. 7 seed Hubert Hurkacz is still dealing with a knee injury that he suffered at Wimbledon, No. 10 seed Alex de Minaur likely isn’t 100 percent on the heels of his own Wimbledon injury (hip), and No. 23 Karen Khachanov is mired in a terrible slump. 

Best first-round matchup — Zhizhen Zhang vs. (25) Jack Draper

Both of these guys are huge talents–albeit at different points in the career trajectory. At 27 years old, Zhang is starting to put it all together and is up to 41st in the rankings. He upset Casper Ruud en route to the U.S. Open third round last season. Draper is just 22 years old and has the potential to be a slam winner, especially in front of the home crowd at the All-England Club. Their first head-to-head encounter should be a shot-making delight.

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Best potential second-round matchup – (22) Alejandro Tabilo vs. Borna Coric

Best potential third-round matchup – (30) Matteo Arnaldi vs. (7) Hubert Hurkacz 

Possible surprises — The half of this section that involves Hurkacz, De Minaur, and Khachanov is incredibly wide open. Arnaldi capitalized on a favorable draw last year to reach the fourth round in New York before falling to Alcaraz. Don’t be surprised if the Italian makes it all the way to the quarterfinals in 2024, which would again put him in line to face the Spaniard.

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Zverev’s quarter 

Zverev’s quarter is probably where everyone else would like to be. The fourth-ranked German is playing great, but he isn’t part of the proverbial current “Big 3” and certainly doesn’t have the same Grand Slam pedigree as Djokovic, Alcaraz, and even Sinner–who captured his first major title at this year’s Australian Open. Throw in the fact that Ruud is the 5-8 seed in Zverev’s section and this is by far the weakest part of the bracket. Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune, and an in-form Lorenzo Musetti will be looking to seize the opportunity.

Best first-round matchup — Jerry Shang vs. (27) Alexander Bublik

Shang has been dealing with a back injury throughout the hard-court summer, so this will obviously turn out to be a fun match only if he is 100 percent. When healthy, the 19-year-old from China has been playing stellar tennis; he is already up to 77th in the rankings. In typical fashion, Bublik has been all over the place this season. The Kazakh is always must-see television. Let’s just hope Shang’s health allows us to see a full five sets of entertainment.

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Best potential second-round matchup – Matteo Berrettini vs. (12) Taylor Fritz

Best potential third-round matchup – (15) Holger Rune vs. (18) Lorenzo Musetti

Possible surprises — Should Zverev make it to the semis? Yes. Will he? Maybe not. Musetti has been on fire this summer and knocked Zverev out of the Olympics. Rune is coming off a semifinal showing at the Cincinnati Masters. Either one would have a decent shot against the German in the round of 16. Fritz upset Zverev in the Wimbledon fourth round and they are on a collision course for the U.S. Open quarters. This section could go any number of ways.

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Djokovic’s quarter 

Just like in 2023, Sinner, Alcaraz, and Medvedev are on one side of the bracket and Djokovic is relatively “alone” in the other half. It is simply a dream draw for the 37-year-old Serb. No one else in his quarter has ever reached a Grand Slam final and the other slam semifinalists in the section are Grigor Dimitrov, Ben Shelton, and Frances Tiafoe. Of those three, Shelton is the only one with seriously dangerous firepower–and Djokovic took care of the big-serving American in straight sets during semifinal action last year at Flushing Meadows. As always, a storyline to watch will be Andrey Rublev’s quest to finally get past a slam quarterfinal (0-10 lifetime at that stage). With Djokovic as a projected quarterfinal opponent, it’s unlikely at best.

Best first-round matchup — (13) Ben Shelton vs. Dominic Thiem

Shelton and Thiem went head-to-head in the second round last summer and the left-hander took an entertaining first set in a tiebreaker before Thiem abruptly retired due to illness. They will essentially get to finish what they started, this time in the opening round of what will be the Austrian’s final U.S. Open. The 2020 champion, who has been unable to recover fully from 2021 wrist surgery, is retiring later this season in Vienna. It’s a popcorn match in terms of name recognition; the truth, of course, is that it probably won’t amount to much on the court.

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Best potential second-round matchup – Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. (9) Grigor Dimitrov

Best potential third-round matchup – (7) Andrey Rublev vs. (32) Jiri Lehecka

Possible surprises — The only foreseeable way in which something crazy happens in this quarter is if Djokovic is lacking motivation on the heels of his gold-medal victory in Paris. If that’s the case, the winner of a potential third-round showdown between Shelton and Tiafoe (which would be a rematch of the 2023 quarterfinals) could make it all the way to the semis. But that’s a big “if.”

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