U.S. Open Day 3 picks, including Berdych vs. Hewitt and Cilic vs. Baghdatis

Ricky: Since the fourth round of the French Open, Berdych has been a disaster. He got blown out by Ernests Gulbis in the French quarters then lost early at Queen’s Club, Wimbledon, Washington, D.C., Toronto, and Cincinnati. This is, however, a bad matchup for Hewitt–who would prefer to face either someone with not as much power or an opponent who rushes the net. Berdych, of course, is a ball-bashing baseliner. The Czech is not playing well enough to make this a complete rout, but he will be able to hit Hewitt off of a fast hard court. Berdych 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4.

Jared: 2006 was the last year Berdych won all four of his first-round matches at Grand Slam events. Since then, the Czech has had exactly one first-round exit at one of the four majors each season. In 2014, that first-round loss hasn’t occurred yet, and Berdych is facing his biggest test of the four first round-matches in former world No. 1 Hewitt. Berdych is also in the middle of his biggest slump in several years. The No. 6 seed has gone 6-5 since reaching the Roland Garros quarterfinals despite not facing any player ranked higher than 25th. Hewitt is defending a second-week appearance at the U.S. Open from last year. The Australian is enjoying his best season in the last five years, racking up a pair of titles. However, he is just 1-3 against opponents in the top 10 this year and trails Berdych in the head-to-head series  2-0. The 2001 U.S. Open champion will have to play one of his best matches of the year and that might still not be enough if Berdych can rediscover his form from earlier in the season. Berdych 4-6, 7-6, 2-6, 7-5, 6-2.

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Ricky: Baghdatis–yes, the same Baghdatis who has fallen off the face of the Earth the past few years–has won 10 matches in a row. Naturally, though, all 10 have come on the Challenger circuit en route to two straight titles. The Cypriot’s best win in this stretch has come against Mikhail Kukushkin, the only player in the top 100 whom Baghdatis had to beat. Cilic, on the other hand, is a much different beast. The 16th-ranked Croat is 40-16 this season with a recent quarterfinal showing at Wimbledon, where he pushed Novak Djokovic to five sets. Cilic is 4-1 lifetime vs. Baghdatis and has won five consecutive sets. Cilic 6-1, 7-6, 6-4.

Jared: Just 12 months ago, Baghdatis was entrenched inside the top 50 of the ATP rankings. However, two months into the season he saw his ranking drop to No. 155, which was the lowest it had been since 2005–when he first broke into the top 100 of the world. In the last six months, the Cypriot has worked his way back up to No. 86. He goes into the U.S. Open with a 10-match winning streak after collecting a pair of titles on the Challenger tour at hard-court events in North America. However, Baghdatis hasn’t defeated anyone in the top 20 since last year’s U.S. Open. Cilic has won four of his previous five meetings against Baghdatis and is placed in a great part of the draw to reach his first Grand Slam semifinal in more than four years. Baghdatis has the shot-making ability that can frustrate Cilic and he has a great tiebreak record this season at 11-3. Cilic is going to have to break the Baghdatis serve frequently to get through this match. Cilic 7-5, 6-3, 6-7, 6-2.

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Jerzy Janowicz vs. Dusan Lajovic

Ricky: Janowicz is at least winning some matches again, but the sample size will have to grow much bigger than just Cincinnati and Winston-Salem before the jury can reach a verdict. For now, his 2014 campaign is still a terrible one. And it won’t help that he is coming off a long week in Winston-Salem, where he played four matches that went to at least 6-4 in the third–including a final loss to Lukas Rosol in which Janowicz had two championship points. Lajovic leads the head-to-head series 2-0. Don’t be surprised if it’s 3-0 by the end of Wednesday. Lajovic 6-7, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3.

Jared: Lajovic has a 2-0 lead in the head-to-head series against Janowicz. However, both of the Serb’s wins have come on clay, which is his favorite surface. Lajovic has played his best tennis at the few Grand Slam events in which he has participated. This year, he got into his first major main draw at the Australian Open and after qualifying with three straight-set victories, reached the second round. He also reached the second week at Roland Garros with three straight-set wins and then defeated Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in five sets at Wimbledon. Janowicz notched five consecutive wins over higher-ranked opponents in Winston-Salem, but this is the Pole’s fourth consecutive week in action and he has never been able to back up one of his good results with more wins. The Serb should be good enough to let Janowicz beat himself. Lajovic 6-3, 7-6, 6-2.

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Ricky: Three of Dodig’s last five first-round Grand Slam matches have gone to five sets, including one against Lopez’s good friend Fernando Verdasco at last year’s U.S. Open. This one has five sets written all over it now that Dodig is healthy again. The Croat did not play between the French Open and Toronto, but he beat both John Isner and Andreas Seppi in Toronto before losing to Gulbis in two tiebreakers in Cincinnati. Lopez, though, was a semifinalist in Toronto and should have a slight edge on a fast hard court. Lopez 6-7, 7-6, 6-2, 2-6, 6-3.

Jared: Dodig leads the series 2-1, but this is the first time Dodig will meet Lopez on a hard court. Both of the Croat’s wins came on clay, while Lopez’s win was on grass. In that win for the Lopez, he won 19 of 22 points behind his second serve. Dodig wasn’t able to return the left-hander’s slicing second serve on the faster surface. On clay, Lopez won a combined 28 of 53 points behind his second serve, which was enough for Dodig to take control of the match. The U.S. Open tends to be one of the fastest hard-court events on tour, so the Spaniard’s serve should be working to good effect in the match. In his career, Dodig has gone 16-24 in matches against left-handers in the main draw at the three professional levels. If Lopez can hold serve enough to reach tiebreakers, he has a huge advantage in experience in that stage of a match with more than 413 tiebreakers played on the tour level compared to 90 for Dodig. Lopez 5-7, 7-6, 6-4, 6-3.

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