Tokyo SF previews and predictions: Rune vs. Fils, Humbert vs. Machac

A somewhat surprising semifinal lineup in Tokyo features only one seeded player in Holger Rune, who will continue his title bid against Arthur Fils on Monday. Ugo Humbert and Tomas Machac are also on the schedule.

Arthur Fils vs. (6) Holger Rune

Rune and Fils won respective circuses on Sunday and will now square off in the Japan Open semifinals on Monday. One point from defeat against Kei Nishikori in the quarters, Rune–while struggling physically–managed to prevail 3-6, 6-2, 7-5. Fils survived an even crazier match, outlasting Ben Shelton 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(2) after exactly three hours. Both Rune and Fils appear to be dealing with knee issues and the Frenchman was also cramping throughout his third set against Shelton.

They have completed only one head-to-head match, with Rune prevailing 6-3, 6-3 last year in Rome. The Dane retired from their Hamburg encounter this summer while trailing 6-4, 4-1. There is a very good chance that Monday’s contest also ends in retirement–one way or the other. Rune is probably the more reliable of the two players given Fils’ roller-coaster ride in the quarters…but that isn’t saying a lot.

Pick: Rune in 2

Tomas Machac vs. Ugo Humbert

This is another showdown in which absolutely anything could happen, as both guys–and especially Machac–are extremely unpredictable. Machac is a top-10 talent when he plays well, but he frequently goes off the boil from out of nowhere. The 34th-ranked Czech beat Alex Michelsen in straight sets on Sunday, but he flirted with disaster against both Alexei Popyrin (7-5 in the third) and Tommy Paul (7-6 in the third).

Humbert looked like one of the best players in the world at the end of last season and the start of this one, but he was terrible this spring and basically throughout the entire summer aside from a fourth-round effort at Wimbledon. The 19th-ranked Frenchman is suddenly back in business this week, rolling into the semis with straight-set beatdowns of Shintaro Mochizuki (6-1, 6-2), Brandon Nakashima (6-3, 6-2), and Jack Draper (7-5, 2-1, ret.). When Humbert is playing well, he is a load to deal with on any fast or even relatively surface such as that in Tokyo.

Pick: Humbert in 2