There is still a chance for an all-American final in Tokyo, where Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe find themselves in the semis on Saturday. Fritz is facing Denis Shapovalov, while Tiafoe tangles with unseeded Soonwoo Kwon.
(3) Taylor Fritz vs. (7) Denis Shapovalov
Fritz was forced to withdraw from Seoul last week because of Covid-19 and he has clearly been less than 100 percent at the Rakuten Japan Open, so what transpired on Friday was just what the doctor ordered. The 11th-ranked American, who is very much in Nitto ATP Finals contention, was supposed to face Nick Kyrgios in the quarterfinals but got a walkover when the Aussie pulled out because of a knee issue. Fritz had previously defeated both James Duckworth and Hiroki Moriya in three sets.
Tokyo’s No. 3 seed has benefited from a great draw this week, but that ends on Saturday. Up next for him in the semifinals is Shapovalov, who leads the head-to-head series 4-1 (all on hard courts). Shapovalov has been in resurgent form dating back to the U.S. Open, where he advanced two rounds before falling to Andrey Rublev in a five-set thriller. The 22nd-ranked Canadian finished runner-up last week in Seoul and so far in Tokyo has dismissed Steve Johnson, Rio Noguchi, and Borna Coric in straight sets. Shapovalov has momentum on his side and mostly owns this matchup, so look for him to advance.
Pick: Shapovalov in 3
Soonwoo Kwon vs. (4) Frances Tiafoe
Tiafoe and Kwon will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers and for the second time in Tokyo when they meet again on Saturday. Their only previous encounter came at the Olympics last summer, where Tiafoe cruised 6-3, 6-2.
Based on the 19th-ranked American’s current form, there is no reason to expect much different in this one. Tiafoe made a semifinal run at the U.S. Open, beat Stefanos Tsitsipas to clinch the Laver Cup for Team World, and booked his spot in the Tokyo semis with straight-set defeats of Yasutaka Uchiyama, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, and Miomir Kecmanovic. This marks the first time Kwon has advanced past the second round of a tournament all year long, so asking him to upset Tiafoe and reach an ATP title match is probably way too much.
Pick: Tiafoe in 2
WWW?
Tiafoe has looked really good since the US Open. He should win this match in 2 and then win the final.
I’ll take Fritz in 3 in the other match just because I never trust Shapo.
Shapo is in career best form. Fritz is quite gritty but grit probably wont keep him in this one. Shapo leads the h2h 4-1 as well, so he should win this in 2.
Coric is probably stronger than Fritz right now.
I’d leaning towards Tiafoe but Soonwoo Kwon can win with that kind of form. Tiafoe in 3.
Shapo has started a tad flat and all Fritz has done is ask the question, which has given him confidence.
Shapo is rushing his shots today and that’s all it took. He was riding on his good form from the previous week. Shapo’s problem is he can’t sustain his good form for extended periods.