The Tokyo fans are in for a treat on Saturday, with both Kei Nishikori and Yoshihito Nishioka in action. Nishikori faces an in-form Jordan Thompson. Tommy Paul and Tomas Machac are also part of the schedule.
(5) Tommy Paul vs. Tomas Machac
Paul is well within striking distance of a spot in the Nitto ATP Finals, and the door is even more open since a handful of players ranked above him either aren’t playing this week or have already lost. The 13th-ranked American helped himself with a 6-3, 6-2 beatdown of Matteo Arnaldi at the Japan on Thursday and will try to earn a place in the quarterfinals when he faces Machac for the first time on Saturday. Paul is an awesome 39-15 this season with titles in Dallas and at Queen’s Club plus a recent fourth-round showing at the U.S. Open (lost to eventual champion Jannik Sinner).
Machac is one of those mercurial players who can beat or lose to just about anyone on any given day. The U.S. Open was a recent example, as the 34th-ranked Czech completely destroyed his first three opponents and then won a grand total of six games against Jack Draper. Machac did well to outlast Alexei Popyrin 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-5 in the Tokyo first round, but the U.S. Open is the only event since the French Open in which he has managed to win multiple matches. You have to like Paul’s chances in this one given his far superior consistency.
Pick: Paul in 2
Jordan Thompson vs. (WC) Kei Nishikori
Thompson and Nishikori will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers on Saturday. Nishikori leads the head-to-head series 2-1, including 2-0 on hard courts after most recently prevailing 7-6(5), 7-6(5) last summer in Atlanta. Still, it’s hard to trust the Japanese veteran. Physical problems have continued to plague him and he is just 6-6 on the main tour this year after beating Beijing champion Marin Cilic 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 on Thursday.
The 2024 campaign has been a much different story for Thompson, who has seemingly played every single week and has racked up wins left and right in both singles and doubles (Wimbledon finalist and U.S. Open champion with Max Purcell). Thompson’s recent singles exploits include a runner-up performance in Atlanta, a quarterfinal run in Washington, D.C., a fourth-round appearance at the U.S. Open, and a 7-6(5), 6-1 upset of Casper Ruud in the Tokyo opening round. The 29th-ranked Australian is simply the much more reliable of these two players right now.
Pick: Thompson in 2
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