Tokyo R1 previews and predictions: Shelton vs. Opelka, Tsitsipas vs. Michelsen

The ATP 500 in Tokyo heats up in a big way with a huge schedule on Thursday, when Ben Shelton and Reilly Opelka take the court. Fellow American Alex Michelsen is also in action against Stefanos Tsitsipas.

(PR) Reilly Opelka vs. (8) Ben Shelton

It will be an all-American showdown when Shelton and Opelka go head-to-head for the second time in their careers on Thursday afternoon at the Japan Open. They faced each other this summer at the Cincinnati Masters and the result was predictable–Shelton prevailed 7-6(3), 7-6(3) in a match that featured zero breaks of serve.

Opelka’s comeback from almost two full seasons away from the sport has been encouraging, but he certainly isn’t on Shelton’s level. Moreover, Shelton is the defending champion in Tokyo and that can only add to his current confidence. The only real concern for the world No. 17 is a heavy Laver Cup workload this past weekend. However, the story was the same last year and Shelton got right back in gear to lift the Tokyo trophy. With three full days off following his impressive Laver Cup effort, Shelton should begin his title defense in relatively routine fashion.

Pick: Shelton in 2

(Q) Alex Michelsen vs. (4) Stefanos Tsitsipas

An underwhelming 2024 campaign so far has Tsitsipas on the outside of the Nitto ATP Finals cut line heading into the stretch run of the season (currently 12th). The Greek really has not helped himself of late, losing in the second round of Wimbledon, the Montreal Masters, and the Cincinnati Masters before exiting the U.S. Open in round one. Since the Paris Olympics, Tsitsipas has won only two matches–and one of those was a borderline exhibition at the Laver Cup.

Up first in Tokyo for the 26-year-old on Thursday is Michelsen, whom he has never faced. Given his recent form, Michelsen is more than capable of capitalizing on a vulnerable opponent. The 20-year-old American finished runner-up in both Newport and Winston-Salem, reached the quarterfinals in Washington, D.C., and advanced one round at the U.S. Open before losing to eventual champion Jannik Sinner. A fast surface helps Michelsen more than Tsitsipas, too, so this has the makings of an upset.

Pick: Michelsen in 3