Tokyo R1 previews and predictions: Berrettini vs. Van de Zandschulp, Hurkacz vs. Giron

No. 2 seed Hubert Hurkacz and former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini will kick off their Tokyo campaigns on Wednesday. They are set for respective first-round matchups with Marcos Giron and Botic van de Zandschulp.

(Q) Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Matteo Berrettini

The Asian swing heats up with two ATP 500 events this week, starting with the Japan Open–where Berrettini and Van de Zandschulp are going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers during first-round action on Wednesday. Berrettini has won all three of their previous encounters; 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(4) on his way to the 2021 Wimbledon final, 6-4, 6-3 in the 2022 Queen’s Club semis, and 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 earlier this month in Davis Cup round-robin competition.

There is no reason to think that anything will change in Tokyo. Van de Zandschulp is playing better than he was earlier in the season, but that isn’t saying a lot considering that he contemplated retirement from tennis following the French Open. A U.S. Open upset of a burned-out Carlos Alcaraz was an aberration as opposed to the rule for the 67th-ranked Dutchman in 2024. Berrettini is 14-2 in his last 16 matches and should power his way into the second round with relative ease.

Pick: Berrettini in 2

Marcos Giron vs. (2) Hubert Hurkacz

Hurkacz is a proverbial wild card this week in Tokyo. If the second-seeded Pole is 100 percent, he is an obvious title contender; if not, he could just as easily lose in round one. Hurkacz came back fast from a meniscus injury suffered at Wimbledon, but his level of play–and his health–was questionable at best on North American hard courts. He compiled a 5-3 record, retiring from a match at the Cincinnati Masters before struggling at the U.S. Open in a routine second-round loss at the hands of Jordan Thompson.

Up first for Hurkacz in Tokyo on Wednesday is Giron, who has lost both of their previous meetings (6-3, 6-2, 6-4 at Wimbledon in 2021 and 7-6(5), 6-4 on the grass courts of Halle this summer). Giron is in the midst of his best year on tour, highlighted by a title in Newport and a runner-up showing in Dallas. The 47th-ranked American is a sizable underdog on paper in this matchup, but he is more than capable of taking advantage of an opponent who could be vulnerable.

Pick: Giron in 3