Doha
Gael Monfils vs. Daniel Brands: You couldn’t have predicted this matchup to be played in an ATP quarterfinal during the first week of 2013. It’s quite a tough one to call, itself. Brands won a mere five ATP-level matches in 2012, but he heated up with a Challenger title in November and he opened in Doha with an upset of Jeremy Chardy. Monfils has overcome serious knee issues to reach the quarters, a spot he booked on Wednesday by defeating No. 3 seed Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-4, 2-6, 6-4. As long as the Frenchman really is 100 percent, he should get the job done.
Odds: Monfils -400, Brands +250
Pick: Monfils 7-6(5), 7-5
David Ferrer vs. Paolo Lorenzi: This will be the first career meeting between Ferrer and Lorenzi, both of whom are in their 30s. The bottom line is simply that Lorenzi rarely lasts long in tournaments; at least not long enough to play guys like Ferrer. In fact, this is the Italian’s second career ATP quarterfinal. Ferrer has more career ATP titles (18) than his opponent has career ATP match victories (16). Thursday’s result should reflect all of that, even though Lorenzi is suddenly playing some of the best tennis of his life.
Odds: Ferrer -2500, Lorenzi +850
Pick: Ferrer 6-3, 6-3
Nikolay Davydenko vs. Simone Bolelli: Speaking of surprise quarterfinalists…. Davydenko is 31 years old and was generally dismal in 2012. Bolelli won only a single hard-court match in the main draw of an ATP event last season. Both players are off to encouraging starts in 2013, with Bolelli having scored wins over Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Lukas Kubot and Davydenko coming off an upset of No. 4 seed Mikhail Youzhny. Head-to-head history (3-0 to Davydenko), surface (hard), and amount of time spent on the court this week all favor the Russian.
Odds: Davydenko -400, Bolelli +250
Pick: Davydenko 6-4, 3-6, 6-2
Chennai
Marin Cilic vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky: Cilic, who will be contesting his first match of 2013, is 3-0 lifetime in this head-to-head series (2-0 in main draws of ATP events). They faced each other once last season, with the Croat prevailing 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 on the hard courts of the Cincinnati Masters. Stakhovsky had a decent 7-6(7), 7-6(5) victory over Ruben Bemelmans on Tuesday, but Thursday’s opponent is a much different beast.
Odds: Cilic -500, Stakhovsky +300
Pick: Cilic 6-3, 7-5
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