Thursday match picks, including Federer vs. Bautista Agut

Shanghai Rolex Masters

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. Mikhail Kukushkin: Dominic Thiem lost 6-3, 6-4 to Djokovic in the second round and was “absolutely satisfied” with his performance while calling Djokovic’s tennis “noble.” If Thiem played well and still managed only seven games, what can anyone expect from Kukushkin? Djokovic in 2.

(11) Andy Murray vs. (5) David Ferrer: These two have not faced each other since the infamous “Heidi” match in 2013, when CBS cut away from their third-set tiebreaker in the Miami final to show golf. Tennis Channel will have no such problem, nor will this one go to a third-set tiebreaker. In his current state, Ferrer would only have a chance in this matchup on clay. Murray in 2.

(3) Roger Federer vs. (14) Roberto Bautista Agut: Federer should have lost to Leonardo Mayer on Wednesday, but the Argentine dumped what should have been a routine backhand winner into the net on his first of five match points. Federer generally improves as tournaments progress, so he should be able to get though this one–but it will take another fight. Federer in 3.

Julien Benneteau vs. Jack Sock: Sock had a golden opportunity last week in Tokyo, getting to play Benjamin Becker in the quarterfinals. He has a similarly open draw to begin his third match in Shanghai. Will Sock make the same mistake twice? Probably, in part due to an in-form Benneteau. Benneteau in 2.

(6) Tomas Berdych vs. Ivo Karlovic: If this was a Tweeting tournament, Berdych-Karlovic would be worthy of a final. It’s right where it belongs in the third round of a tennis tournament, and it should be a good one. Karlovic has won two in a row to lead the head-to-head series 4-2 and he has taken their last four sets all in tiebreakers. That means Berdych is due. Berdych in 3.

(Q) Malek Jaziri vs. Gilles Simon: Simon has been an absolute warrior the past two weeks, winning three-setters all over the place. His well-deserved reward is a date with an unheralded qualifier in the last 16 of a Masters 1000 event. It does not get any better than that, and it probably does not get any easier. Simon in 2.

(WC) Juan Monaco vs. Mikhail Youzhny: The last two meetings between these two veterans have been as competitive as possible, with Youzhny prevailing 6-4 in the fifth and then 9-7 in a third-set tiebreaker. On Wednesday the Russian won a thriller against Ivan Dodig 7-6(7), 6-7(4), 6-3. Are we sensing a trend here? Youzhny in 3.

(13) John Isner vs. Feliciano Lopez: Lopez is not a great matchup for Isner because the lefty serve exploits the big man’s backhand weakness and Lopez’s backhand slice stays low to the ground–where Isner least likes hitting shots. That being said, Isner is 2-0 against Lopez outside of Grand Slams (0-2 against Lopez at slams). The American also served at 80 percent and blasted 24 aces without double-faulting in round three. Isner in 3.

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