Dominic Thiem is no stranger to amazing matches inside the O2 Arena, nor is he unfamiliar with epic contests against Rafael Nadal.
That combination made for a predictably thrilling encounter at the Nitto ATP Finals on Tuesday afternoon. It was Thiem who emerged victorious, winning in two sets but needing a pair of tiebreakers over two hours and 25 minutes to prevail 7-6(7), 7-6(4).
The first set featured high-quality tennis right from the start, with grueling rallies, tweeners, huge one-handers by Thiem, and expert volleys by Nadal. About the only thing it didn’t have was a service break–or even a break point–as both players took turns battling out of 0-30 holes with clutch serving.
Four straight mini-breaks kicked off the tiebreaker, all thanks to Nadal. The world No. 2 struck two winners on return points but also double-faulted once and missed a drop-shot when he was serving. Nadal eventually built a 5-2 lead, but Thiem recovered for 5-5 and saved a set point with Nadal serving at 5-6. The Austrian fought off another at 6-7 with an inside-out forehand and went to convert his own set point at 8-7 with another inside-out strike.
A second tiebreaker had to decide set two, although not before plenty of drama. After trading the first two breaks of the day (Nadal struck for 4-3 only to see Thiem hit right back), the reigning U.S. Open champion put the pressure on by seizing a 5-4 lead. Serving to stay in alive, Nadal quickly fell into a triple-match point hole at 0-40. Nonetheless, the 34-year-old dug out of it in impressive fashion and ended up holding for 5-5.
In the ‘breaker, the decisive moment came at 3-3. They traded mini-breaks early and then Thiem earned a 4-3 advantage with a brilliant backhand passing shot. He took care of his next two service points for yet another triple-match point situation at 6-3. Nadal managed to save one more, but on his opponent’s fifth chance at 4-6 he sent a backhand well wide.
“It was a great match from the first to the last point,” Thiem assessed. “I was actually pretty lucky to get the first set; I was down 5-2 in the tiebreaker…. I knew I had a slight advantage after winning the first set, but I had to stay super focused…. I had a feeling that the whole match was a very high level. I’m very happy with the way I served; in the end the served help me out. Maybe it’s the most important stroke in indoor tennis.
“The atmosphere would have been unreal today (with fans), but I hope we put on a good show for people watching on TV.”
When asked if this was one of the best wins of his career, Thiem replied, “I would say so, yeah. I mean, definitely one of the better matches I have played so far in my career. I think it came close to the second group match last year against [Novak Djokovic]. I think we both played great tennis.”
“Just well done to him,” Nadal said. “He played I think an amazing match and I played well, too. So my feeling is not negative. I lost, but I had plenty of chances in the first and then I had break up in the second. Nothing to say, just well done to Dominic. I’m happy with the way I played. I think my chances are bigger to have a very good result now than five days ago because the level of tennis–even if I lost today–for me is much higher.”
Thiem has now defeated Nadal twice in a row, having triumphed 7-6(3), 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6) en route to this year’s Australian Open quarterfinals. They have split their last six meetings at three victories apiece, a stretch that includes a memorable fifth-set tiebreaker win for Nadal at the 2018 U.S. Open.
The 27-year-old is looking to go one step farther in London than he did last fall, when he upset Djokovic in an incredible round-robin match before losing the final to Stefanos Tsitsipas in a third-set tiebreaker. He will mathematically clinch a spot in the semis if Tsitsipas beats Andrey Rublev on Tuesday night.
both should make the semis
I thought thiem has topped the group n clinched it
great write up of a great match….both men played big time tennis!!
The data clearly indicated Nadal was a firm favorite to win the match which was evident by the massive push for him in the hours preceding the match — odds for Nadal to win firmed from 1.62 to 1.48; however, because Theim tends to overperform against Nadal and ‘arguably’ overperforms in the ATP Tour Finals — it’s probably too small a sample size yet to be statistically significant) and Nadal has historically underperformed in ATP Tour finals when compared to RG, The USO and Wimbledon, that meant luck would likely be a major factor in determining the outcome of the match and unfortunately for Nadal the luck was overwhelmingly in Theim’s favour.
Furthermore, Nadal probably suffered from a marginal amount of complacency due to a lack of emotional attachment to the event which gives underdogs a better chance than they would otherwise have. At this level, it doesn’t take much of a drop in intensity and focus to swing the pendulum in your opponent’s favor.