It’s 20 to 20 in 2020.
Rafael Nadal tied Roger Federer atop the all-time men’s singles Grand Slam titles list by winning his 20th on Sunday afternoon at Roland Garros. Nadal made surprisingly routine work of what was billed as a blockbuster French Open final, beating Novak Djokovic 6-0, 6-2, 7-5.
Expected winner, unexpected score
I did think Nadal would win. I had him before the tournament (albeit beating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final); and I had him beating Djokovic when the championship matchup was set. But it was by no means a slam-dunk prediction. I was actually leaning toward Djokovic initially, thinking that their recent head-to-head history was more lopsided in the Serb’s favor than it really was. But Nadal was a solid 3-3 in their previous six meetings, including 3-0 in their last three clay-court encounters. Knowing that his old mental block against Djokovic should no longer be a factor, I fortunately switched to Nadal.
That certainly isn’t to say I thought it would be easy. Conditions are obviously not as good for Nadal this time of year and even when they are perfect for him, Djokovic is no pushover on clay. Plus, the world No. 1’s bizarre physical problems that popped up in the quarterfinals against Pablo Carreno Busta were completely absent in the semis against Tsitsipas.
Injuries were not among Djokovic’s problems on Sunday. Nadal, of course, was the top seed’s biggest problem. And the conditions–even with the Court Philippe-Chatrier roof closed–didn’t help. They were simply too slow for Djokovic to hit through. First serves and cross-court backhands that would go for winners at the Australian Open (such as when he trounced Nadal in straight sets in the 2019 final) were returned by Nadal with interest this time around. And with the Spaniard’s unforced error count next to nothing on Sunday, Djokovic had little choice but to win points with winners. When he couldn’t do it, he either overhit and made errors or bailed out of rallies with drop-shots–most of which did not work.
LOL, Goran
Prior to the semifinals, Goran Ivanisevic–who coaches Djokovic–predicted a win for his charge if the two all-time greats were to meet in the final. And he did so with confidence.
“I think Nadal has no chance in these conditions,” Ivanisevic boasted. “Novak has gotten into his head and is the favorite…. I think Novak is clearly the number one favorite to win Roland Garros.”
That’s how it started. How it ended? a Djokovic loss in easy straight sets.
I love Goran (his 2001 Wimbledon final victory over Patrick Rafter remains probably my favorite match ever along with the 2004 French Open final won by Gaston Gaudio over Guillermo Coria). But that’s just hilarious. People always talk about tweets that didn’t age well. Well, this statement by Goran didn’t age well. Not at all!
GOAT race
Although Nadal already led Djokovic 19-17 in the slam race, it was the world No. 2 who actually needed this one more. At 20 to 20 to 17, Nadal and Federer still have a chance of holding off Djokovic. If it had been 20 to 19 to 18 going into next year, the Serb would have been a clear favorite to be the eventual slam leader. Although Djokovic is only one year younger than Nadal, he has more chances each season because he is such an incredible all-court player. Yes, Nadal is also great on every surface; but it’s obvious that he is not quite on Djokovic’s level on hard courts or grass.
Based on how Nadal looked this fortnight (he didn’t drop a single set!), he appears to be in line for at least one more French. Federer would need a borderline miracle to win another one, but I don’t think Wimbledon is entirely out of the question.
How about a three-way tie at 21 to 21 to 21 when it’s all said and done? It’s unlikely, sure, but–as we have seen throughout this crazy year in tennis and life in general–stranger things have happened.
What should Nadal do the rest of 2020?
To keep playing or not to keep playing? That is the question.
For Nadal, there are good arguments for both sides. Having played only two tournaments in the last seven-plus months, the 34-year-old’s body is surely in the best physical state it has even been in this late in a season. This is probably his best chance to win the World Tour Finals, the biggest event that still eludes him in the trophy case. Federer obviously won’t be in London, and there could be more withdrawals to come. The door may be open in a big way at the O2 Arena. Moreover, Nadal could play the Paris Masters and the World Tour Finals and in all likelihood his body would still be fine and he would have more than enough rest for 2021.
At the same time, the coronavirus pandemic is still raging on and Nadal is among the players who have taken it most seriously. He would probably be more than happy to go back to Mallorca and hang out on his yacht for two months with another Coupe des Mousquetaires in hand. And no more hard-court tennis in 2020 would guarantee that his health remains intact for the following season.
Given the opportunity in London and how important it would be for his career (even though he won’t admit it), I think he should keep going in 2020…. But I would be very surprised if he does.
thoughts on GOAT race and rest of 2020?
Ricky, very good and complete resummee!
I agree that Rafa needed the win more than Novak for various reasons. Although he has surprised us frequently at the US Open, Rafa has fewer chances than Novak to win more slam trophies. At the other slams he needs the help of other players who have to take out Novak. Not so at the FO! And this means that he needs to grab each opportunity. He did just that in a totally convincing fashion. As a Rafafan I was nervous because the conditions were completely different this year and he didn’t have time to gather steam and confidence. And if Novak would’ve become the first human being who managed to beat Rafa in a final of the FO and thus winning each slam at least twice, it would’ve
definitely hurt Rafa’s GOAT quest. But apparently there are no bad conditions for Rafa at the FO. It doesn’t seem to matter. The FO are a tournament where 120 players start and if Rafa is healthy he wins the trophy. There’s no reason to assume that this will be different in eight months.
I also love Goran! And his run to his one and only wildly improbable Wimby trophy remains one of my best tennis memories ever. But maybe, Goran is not exactly the top experts re: clay court tennis and the FO. But unless he placed a big wager on Novak, I highly doubt that he will lose a lot of step because of his tweet😉 But I wonder a bit which kind of input someone like Goran can give as Novak’s coach. However, I thought the same about Becker. But Novak’s time with Becker was the most successful stretch of his career! So, Novak seems to know what he is doing. He will bounce back!
Think Rafa will finish his season as he takes issues to do with the virus very seriously.
Disappointed that among the avalanche of tweets and Insta posts there hasn’t been one from Korda and his cat 🐱! I do kind of love Korda..
It will not be 21-21-21
My prediction in descending order
Rafa
Fed
Novak
Yes I am going against the crowd and saying not more than 3 at max for Novak. Fed can pull out 1 and Rafa mAybe 2 at max
The slam I want most for Rafa is AO 21 to complete career double slam..second priority 1 more usopen to be the most successful male player at 2 slams 🙂
Did you guys hear..rafa called Toni before match n said they asking for roof to be closed. Toni told Rafa close roof else court will be wet n won’t suit you ..maybe he remembered what happ in 2012 3rd set 🙂
Seeing highlights .I feel scared whenever rafa goes cc fh to novaks double handed bh. There is barely 20 percent chance for Rafa to win the point then..why does he go cc than dtl I fail to understand…he needs to avoid this as much as possible
Secondly novak hits his fh pretty hard n pointed. He has improved that shot too a lot over the years..serve ,ros ,fh ,bh , drop ,movement..all good now for novak
Why are you scared about Rafa going CC FH to Djoko’s BH? Rafa could then hit his FH DTL when Djoko returned his shot CC, that’s how Rafa won his 2014 FO final against Djoko.
Djoko is also wary about Rafa’s FH DTL shot, so Djoko may use his BH DTL instead. So, Rafa must have a good BH to counter that.
Its strange that some are saying the slow conditions doesn’t suit Rafa, but OTOH, the slow conditions means players couldn’t hit through him, so now what conditions is better for the players when they play against Rafa on clay?
I guess none, unless it’s wet clay when the ball couldn’t bounce! But in that case, Rafa won’t be playing his topspin the way he used to, he’ll adapt and probably plays a more aggressive game stepping into the court more often. Imo he would still win because of his excellent footwork and footspeed on clay. On wet clay, I think a player like Stan would be more dangerous than a player like Djoko for Rafa, as Djoko is not known to be able to sustain a consistent hard hitting game throughout a match; a player like Stan could, also the hard hitting Sod on his good day.
I think experts just say things to support their point of view. Courier was one of the first to write Rafa off at RG in October talking about how the slow conditions won’t suit him, etc etc then when Rafa was dominating Djokovic under the roof the same Courier said, maybe the slow conditions suit Rafa better.
I wish they could all be objective instead on misleading fans who are trying to understand the game of tennis and not just say whatever fits their agenda.
Rafa said he’d decide about his schedule “soon” so best to just wait and see. No need to speculate.
As for the GOAT race, for me there will always be three GOATs, each with his own strengths and weaknesses and records to be proud of for them and their fandoms.
When it comes to predicting tennis the one thing no can know is what Rafa wrote about in his book. “Tennis is so much about how you feel on the day”. Rafa had one of “those days” last Sunday as he said he did on Finals Sunday at Wimbledon 12 years ago.
Federer will always be considered the GOAT whether we like it or not. His technique is the greatest from 2000 up to now (not sure about the past because I could not watch it back then). In the future far from now, it’s going to be difficult to remember intangible stuffs like mental strength, footwork, break point conversion rate, return of serve effectiveness, etc. People will just watch snippets of each player, and they will see that Federer has the most beautiful strokes and also an aura of a gentleman (at least on the face of it). And it helps that Federer won a lot of trophies and grand slams. So the consensus will always be Federer is the GOAT.
I think it’s ok that way. I’m happy if Nadal has the most Grand Slams even if he’s not the GOAT in most people’s eyes. To me, Nadal is the most entertaining player ever. I would think twice before paying to watch a Djokovic’s match.
I really don’t understand the concept that Federer is dancing on the court and making fluid effortless shots. For me, Rafa reaching out and hitting winners from impossible positions gives me goosebumps. For many tennis writers, its irritating thing. My favorite is 2012 AO semi against Fed.
Rafa needs constant matches for AO 2021, so he should play paris master and tour final.
I simply do not agree. In truth, there are three GOATS. Rafa, Fed and Novak all have a claim on it. One cannot simply write off the other two. I also do not agree about a Fed being the most aesthetically pleasing on the court. There is beauty in the games of all three.
There is no consensus about the GOAT. Only differing opinions. Many thought Rafa would never equal Fed’s slam record. I think it’s entirely possible that we could have a three way tie for the most slam titles.
I think that these three greats have each contributed in their own way with their own records. I have never subscribed to the GOAT idea anyway.
I have always thought that a player can only be the greatest in his era. I think it’s great to celebrate the greats of each era.
Ive said this before about the three GOATS one on each surface,glad you agree. They should leave it at that, this debate has been going on far too long.Its also unfair to older players like Borg and Laver who weren’t of the era where physical training etc were so advanced allowing players to win Slams well into their thirties.
However , I do agree that the style of play is important here even if subjective. How successful would Fed have been in previous eras with his style, compared to Nole or Rafa with theirs? His style transcends the eras better esp.on grass. He’s the artistic tennis GOAT,while Nadal is the physical, and Nole is probably the mental one.
Nole IS the mental one, but NOT in the way you mean it. I have always thought, until 2020 RG final, that Rafa had the weakest strokes of the three (especially the serve), but made it up in physicality and a superior strategic mind on court. I agree that all three are GOATS, but I would not limit it to surfaces either. In my mind, Federer is the balletic one, Rafa the marathon man, and Djokovic the gymnast. Any of these players can beat the other on ANY surface on a good day, with the possible exception of Rafa on clay.
NNY, I completely agree with you! IMO it’s increasingly petty to argue that there can only be one GOAT! Each member of the Big Three deserves this title! However, it makes me very angry when Fed fans trot out the silly argument that Fed is the only true GOAT no matter what because of his graceful style. This is very subjective after all, and there’s no rule which says that the GOAT needs to get 10 out of 10 points for artistic merits!
I would be perfectly happy if each of the Big Three end up with the same slam count. However, I I have a hunch that Fed is truly done! I simply cannot believe that he will manage to come back one more time after his latest health problems. It’s not realistic – not even at Wimby! Rafa however has a very good chance to get one more FO and a record breaking 21th slam trophy in eight months in Paris, if he stays healthy. This would mean that Novak needs five more titles in order to occupy the top spot. I agree with Ricky that Novak has more chances than Rafa to win more slams. Rafa needed his latest win more than Novak. But winning four or five more trophies might prove to be difficult even for Novak. The young guns were held at bay for one more season, but at least some of them are getting there. Thiem had almost done it at the
AO! And Tsitsipas seems to have consolidated his act. He had a tough draw and bad luck at the US Open.
Novak’s season has been a bit bizarre. So far he only lost a single regular match during the whole season and will end up for sure on the pole position for the 6th time At tue end of the year. But somehow it feels as if he lost more than he gained. He had the chance to get even with or at least dangerous close to Rafa in the slam count department, but he couldn’t do it. And he lost quite a lot of his reputation because he made far too many missteps.
This season was bizarre. Let’s hope that the world at large becomes a better place next year.
According to a very reliable German news source there were no plans to separate Querrey from his family or to put them into a hospital. The tournament director Medvedev had already rented a private appartment for the family and had arranged the service of a children’s doctor for his son. And Russian doctors are actually very well trained. I have been
in Russia more than once. And while I am not at all a Putin fan, it’s silly to believe that
Russian academics are second rate. The opposite is true! Querrey’s behavior was apparently a completely emotional and unnecessary panic reaction.
Great reflection on Rafa and RG, and I do not think he will play at O2…..he’ll rest up for 2021…another RG trophy and maybe a gold medal.
Its interesting reading the above that while the conditions weren’t ideal for Nadal,they didn’t suit Nole either. The roof closed actually helped Rafa by keeping the court dry. On grass or hard court, we could maybe say roof closed or low bouncing ball would suit Nole more ,but on clay, its not that simple .as Goran said it was.
Anyway ,its obvious Nole will never be the same player again as a result of such a humiliating loss to him and his fans. I think he’ll get over it 🙂
Rafa’s coaches argued for open roof. By clay standards it didn’t rain that much. The coaches suggested that Rafa speak to the tournament officials, but Rafa said he’d just go play. He didn’t want a wet gooey court – it’s slow enough already! – plus the roof is high and open on the sides, letting air in.
Agree that Djoker will “get over it”. He’s recovered from humiliation before. Maybe he’ll even muzzle Ivanisevic, but good luck with that!
I saw Tonis interview where he said he told Rafa to let roof stay closed. Christopher Clarey said the roof at RG was unlike other slams n even if roof is on, it does not function like an indoor court ..whatever that means
Because there’re openings at the sides to allow air in even with the roof closed. So, roof or no roof, the court could still be windy. I think it’s a good design (like the national stadium in my country), as it won’t feel like an indoor environment. I think even during rainy days with closed roof in the summer, the arena could be cooled with cool air blowing at the spectator seats from various vents built in the arena.
I don’t think it will affect him much Al. Rafa suffered the AO 19 debacle n has won 3 slams since. I think Novak will be fine . He will regret the USO default though as that may be the marker for him not being the highest in slam tally. He will be pissed he played both slams but won none.
Yeah he’ll get over it, same as Rafa has moved on from the 2019 AO. The results between these guys are mostly predictable based on surface, the dynamics change infrequently. Rafa might have a bit more confidence next time he plays Novak on a HC and it would probably be competitive, but that surface will generally tip things in Djokovic’s favour.
Here is Christopher’s tweet on the Chartier roof
https://mobile.twitter.com/christophclarey/status/1315274848919314432
I don’t agree that Fed can’t win another slam. He arguably should have beaten Novak at wimby when he had better stats and great chances, including 2 consecutive mps. He does seem to have a block against Nole at the slams now but that’s not insurmountable.
Every year at wtf the site is split between those who say this year will be the demise of the big 3 and those, like me, who think until they actually start winning slams the breakthrough s made by the younger players are the aberration rather than the norm. Despite Dom winning the USO for me this year is much the same as all of the big 3 were taken out of the equation.
Why are so many Rafans just assuming Rafa has only a chance at another French ? Were the 4 USO a joke or gift ? Why assume someone needs to take out Novak for Rafa to win USO ?
I can understand all the apprehensions for AO and Wimby but why USO ?
I repeat ..there is too much overestimation of what Novak can do .he is a tennis player ..not God. He needs to play n win…nothing is certain for anyone..
Fed has no chance whatsoever when he ideally should have won Wimby last year, Rafa chance is just at french when he won 2 of the last 3 uso he played…but the mighty Novak has excellent chances at every slam…
Agreed sanju. I find it puzzling. Rafa can win on all surfaces if he is confident enough…
I certainly haven’t been saying that…
Fed still has his chances at Wimbledon, why not when he even had championship points against Djoko last year? By now Fed should be well rested and getting ready for the new season. He may even shine at the AO next year!
I wish for Rafa to get at least one more AO and one more Wimbledon, he came so close of winning – AO2012, 2017 and Wimbledon in 2018 when he had a chance against Djoko in the SF had he taken the TB set point in set three.
I think Rafa can win at the USO, he’s twice the champion in the past three years – from 2017 to 2019, how can we count him out? He’s 2-1 vs Djoko in USO finals so he can beat Djoko there.
I think people who see many more slams for those 3, discount Thiem, Tsitsipas, Medvedev, Shapovalov, Zverev and others. The change of guards is already happening now. Of course top 3 can still win slams, but don’t expect neither of them to take 3 slams per season.
I don’t think Djokovic is any more an all court player than Rafa. Djokovic has won a good too many matches that could have gone either way.
AO 2012, Rafa had a break in the 5th set and the match took nearly 6 hours.
Wimbledon 2019, Federer had 2 match points and flunked it
Wimbledon 2018, circumstances were compromised and Djokovic beat Rafa 10-8 in the 5th set.
There are many others.
Rafa has 4 USO titles to Djokovic’s 2 and he beat Djokovic in the final of 2 of those victories.
Rafa had a few rough years at Wimbledon where he lost early in 2012 which compromised his seeding ever since because of the seeding formula. Djokovic benefitted from the formula being upgraded from his ATP ranking of 22 to 12 and ended up winning the title. Had Rafa had different draws with his ATP ranking, who knows what would have happened. Wimbledon have now abolished the seeding formula because they couldn’t justify it anymore.
Djokovic has 1 RG title yet he is seen as an all court player but Rafa isn’t with 4 USO titles, 2 Wimbledons and 1 AO.
Rafa has also had very bad luck at the AO having to withdraw many times due to injury and turning up in the 2014 final with a back injury.
And lack of match play in 2019 so he lost in straights on purpose after slaughtering Tsitsi. So unlucky at the AO.
Why was the ‘beatdown’ of Nadal in the AO 2019 final relevant at the French Open. Bet at AO 2021, we will be told that the routing of Djokovic by Nadal at RG is irrelevant. Lol
Karen Kachanov picks Rafa win the most
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tennisworldusa.org/amp_tennis/news/Rafael_Nadal/92200/karen-khachanov-rafael-nadal-will-win-most-majors-even-though-novak-djokovic-is-/
Murray says the race is now 2 horse race between Rafa and Novak
I sincerely want Fed to stay higher than Novak. Fed over Novak any day.
Frankly, I don’t care what other players think about the GOAT race! It’s not important, and I noticed quite a while ago that this is strongly influenced by the so-called recency effect. Whoever just won the latest big title will be anointed as the best ever – for a short while. In the past this happened regularly, when Novak started the year with another AO title. Then, after having won his umpteenth FO title, it was Rafa’s turn in the spotlight. In normal years that didn’t last very long, though, because Wimby was just around the corner. Which means that Rafa amd his fans never had a lot of time to bask in the sunlight of public attention. Maybe this timing helped Rafa to develop a realistic perspective😉
In the end it’s completely irrelevant what others think. Who will end up with the highest number of slams will be settled oncourt and not in the realm of social media.
That said, Andy Murray is probably right, when he said that the GOAT race takes place on two lanes now instead of three. Rafa and Novak are in the driver’s seat now. I really don’t think that Roger can win more slams. He will be 40 years old next year. This is an awful lot of mileage even for a formidable player like the great Federer. Yes, he could and maybe should’ve won Wimby 2019 – but he didn’t – and that may well have cost him the GOAT title. But at the time of Wimby 2021 Roger’s final match against Novak will have been two years ago. That’s a long time, and beides Novak and Rafa other players will have matured and will become increasingly important. IMO Roger can only remain in the ongoing GOAT race if Rafa and Novak won’t exceed Roger’s 20 slam trophies.
littlefoot,
I also agree about not caring what other players thinks. It’s going to happen on the court. As it should. I will not say for certain that Fed won’t win another slam. He lost a golden opportunity at last year’s Wimbledon. A match he should have won. Maybe he will have another shot at it next year. I remember how Fed fans used to say that having the most slam titles was most important. Now what are they going to say? Rafa and Fed are tied. I think Rafa and Novak will have opportunities to win more slams.
I just think the whole idea of a single GOAT is toxic. It is really unfortunate that people would disregard the great contributions of players over the years. Rod Laver should not be forgotten. Yet we hear how different tennis was then, how he never played on hard court. At that time there was a battle between amateur tennis and professional tennis. That cost Laver more slams because he was barred from playing Wimbledon for a few years because he turned pro. Fortunately for us tennis became a pro sport and the Open Era started in 1968. But Laver played the best of the best in his time. He has two calendar grand slams and none of his rivals were able to do it. He should be celebrated. Roy Emerson held the record for most slam titles at 12 for decades, until Pete Sampras came along to break that record.
Borg should be celebrated for his 5 Wimbledons and 6 RG’s. He head the record at RG for thirty years until Rafa broke it.
It is a travesty to leave these past great champions out of any discussion. They are all GOATS.
Absolutely agree . The Slam count was only ever one way of looking at it. Or any other statistic you care to mention. I prefer to look for a player who with their game and style, would have been the best overall in any era on any surface. Its nearly impossible but Id lean towards the players who relied on sheer talent and not physicality .Give everyone a wooden racquet today then see who’s the best.
Depending on how Roger recovers from his knee operation, I won’t write him off just yet because he can still beat the majority of the field and it’s not impossible for him to win any title, slam or whatever.
I am just tired of the GOAT debate. Everyone has their own opinion about the criterion for GOAT and it was all crafted around Roger’s achievements which were supposed to be insurmountable. His slam count has now been equalled and his weeks at #1 is on life support so his fans are beginning to move the goal post.
I would prefer for the players to just be appreciated for what they’ve achieved individually. There are many layers to tennis and to simply narrow greatness down to slams and weeks at #1 is can’t be right. What Rafa has done on clay is in a class of it’s own and unlikely to ever be surpassed. To have done this in an era of the 3 best players of all time is remarkable and no player has ever dominated a surface to that extent. How can Roger or Novak be the GOAT with what Rafa has achieved on clay in a period where they were also active. On the other hand, both Roger and Novak have also done great things that Rafa hasn’t done.
So let’s just appreciate them all.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportskeeda.com/amp/tennis/why-rafa-nadal-serious-goat-contender-even-now-ever
But it is a lot of fun to see the cognitive dissonance that the federer goat proclaimers go through.. for years they kept saying h2h does not matter and that weeks at no.1 and grand slams are the real deal.. now that rafa has his 20 and djokovic is closing in on the weeks at no.1 record, the narrative has changed largely to goat because of dancing on the court, aggressive tennis, single handed backhand😀..
My narrative hasnt changed.Those were always the criteria -classic style that would do well in any era -esp. this one,which suits physical players more.
Novak is not playing Bercy..will only play Vienna and London .basically he is playing only tourneys where he can gain points ..
Is it true if he does not win australia too next year..he retains his 2000 ? Then it’s a given he will cross feds no 1 weeks
Bercy is going ahead? Great
Nadal currently is the GOAT, period. His 20 grandslams (tied all time with federer); his superior head to head with federer 24-16; his forever untouchable record at the french open (which is the greatest dominance ever seen in the history of Sports, not just tennis); his career golden slam; being the only player in history to win 3 grand slams in 3 different surfaces in the same calendar year and the only player (along with mats wilander) in history to win 2 or more slams each in three different surfaces, makes Nadal the GOAT.
Number of slams has always been the no 1 yardstick for GOATHOOD whether we like it or not. Everyone is ok with Serena being called the GOAT bc of her 23 slams and nobody is saying in women’s tennis there can’t be just ONE GOAT but when it comes to men’s tennis some people don’t want to discuss it or find it irritating. Sorry I respectfully disagree. Some of us rafans love to discuss it and debate it because it’s fun and a great topic of discussion.
Until novak gets to 20 or more slams, he’s not yet at the level of federer or nadal in the GOAT discussion. Right now the battle for GOATHOOD is between federer and Nadal and Nadal wins handsdown.
This article sounds funny to read now:)
https://www.eurosport.com/tennis/french-open-men/2017/french-open-2017-was-rafael-nadal-s-la-decima-the-greatest-grand-slam-performance-of-all-time_sto6213226/story-amp.shtml
Very good article:
https://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/rafael-nadal-the-goat-tennis-also-goat-dealing-fear