Stockholm SF previews and predictions: Paul vs. Wawrinka, Dimitrov vs. Griekspoor

Stan Wawrinka is the only unseeded player remaining in Stockholm and he will try to continue his run at the expense of Tommy Paul on Saturday. The other semifinal showdown pits Grigor Dimitrov against Tallon Griekspoor.

(WC) Stan Wawrinka vs. (4) Tommy Paul

Paul and Wawrinka will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Nordic Open on Saturday. They have split their two previous encounters; Wawrinka won 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-2 at the 2020 Paris Masters before Paul prevailed 6-1, 6-4 on the grass courts of Queen’s Club in 2022.

Stockholm is already by far Wawrinka’s best tournament of the season. The 39-year-old Swiss, who is down at No. 217 in the world, has advanced with victories over Brandon Nakashima, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Andrey Rublev. Success is nothing new for Paul in 2024. The 13th-ranked American is 43-17 for the year and has improved his Nitto ATP Finals standing with victories this week over Laslo Djere and Miomir Kecmanovic–both in straight sets. Paul is simply the better player at this point in time and certainly has the physical edge near the end of what has already been a long week for Wawrinka.

Pick: Paul in 2

(3) Grigor Dimitrov vs. (7) Tallon Griekspoor

Dimitrov (10th) and Paul (11th) are separated by only one place in the race to Turin, so–even though only 250 points are up for grabs–this could be a very important tournament. The 33-year-old Bulgarian, who is a former champion of the Nitto ATP Finals (2017), has helped his cause with straight-set wins in Stockholm over Quentin Halys and Dominic Stricker.

Standing in Dimitrov’s way of the Stockholm title match is a second meeting with Griekspoor. Their only previous tilt came less than two months ago at the U.S. Open, where Dimitrov cruised 6-3, 6-3, 6-1. However, that result can pretty much be thrown out the window. Griekspoor was dealing with an arm injury throughout the summer and was a shadow of his real self in that match. The 37th-ranked Dutchman is healthy now and thriving indoors, which is nothing new or him. He has advanced this week by beating Pavel Kotov, Jake Fearnley, and Casper Ruud–another Turin hopeful–all in straight sets. Don’t be surprised if Griekspoor keeps his run going. 

Pick: Griekspoor in 3