St. Petersburg R2 previews and predictions: Thiem vs. Struff, Shapovalov vs. Berrettini

Dominic Thiem will kick off his St. Petersburg campaign when he goes up against Jan-Lennard Struff during second-round action on Thursday. Denis Shapovalov and Matteo Berrettini are also aiming for a spot in the quarters.

(1) Dominic Thiem vs. Jan-Lennard Struff

Thiem and Struff will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers when they clash in round two of the St. Petersburg Open on Thursday. Interestingly, in all three previous matches the winner recovered from losing the first set. Thiem leads the head-to-head series, having won two in a row at the German’s expense (1-6, 6-3, 6-4 two years ago in Monte-Carlo and 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 at the 2017 Australian Open). Struff took their first encounter 6-7(6), 6-4, 6-3 at the 2015 Auckland event.

This marks the beginning of Thiem’s stretch run to the Nitto ATP Finals, a feat he should be able to accomplish with just a few more decent results. The eighth-ranked Austrian is No. 8 in the race, 400 points clear of John Isner (who is not playing much more in 2018) and almost 900 points ahead of Kei Nishikori. Rarely a force on hard courts, Thiem did well to reach the U.S. Open quarterfinals and push three-time champion Rafael Nadal in an epic five-setter. Struff, meanwhile, is a mediocre 18-21 for the year after beating Andrey Rublev 6-4, 7-6(6) in round one. The German, a recent third-round performer in New York, registers just six spots off his career-high ranking at 50th in the world. An upset is certainly within the realm of possibility, but Thiem should have gained some hard-court confidence from his U.S. Open showing.

Pick: Thiem in 3

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(7) Denis Shapovalov vs. Matteo Berrettini

Shapovalov is beginning his fall swing, which will end with a second consecutive appearance in the NextGen ATP Finals in Milan. Perhaps sooner rather than later, the 19-year-old Canadian’s seasons will conclude at the Nitto ATP Finals in London instead of in Milan. He continues to rise on tour, with 29 of his 43 career main-tour match victories having come in 2018–putting him in position for a seed at the 2019 Australian Open with a current ranking of 34th. Shapovalov maintained his fine form by beating Adrian Menendez-Maceiras 7-6(3), 6-2 on Wednesday afternoon in St. Petersburg.

Up next for the No. 7 seed on Thursday is a first-ever meeting with Berrettini, who is enjoying a breakout season on tour. The 22-year-old Italian has earned all 17 of his lifetime ATP-level match wins in 2018, including a 7-6(5), 2-6, 6-3 defeat of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez on Tuesday. Ranked 62nd, Berrettini should be able to make this one competitive–but on an indoor hard court Shapovalov has a clear edge.

Pick: Shapovalov in 2

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