Sofia SF preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Rune

Jannik Sinner will put his undefeated Sofia Open record to the test when he goes up against Holger Rune during semifinal action on Saturday evening.

Sinner is 11-0 all time in Sofia, with back-to-back titles in 2020 and 2021. The 10th-ranked Italian has dropped only two sets at this tournament in his entire career–one at the hands of Alex de Minaur in the 2020 quarterfinals and another in the championship match that week against Vasek Pospisil. So far this week Sinner has disposed of Nuno Borges and Aleksandar Vukic; no set has been more competitive than 6-4.

Rune just missed out on an opening-round bye as the No. 5 seed, and having to play three matches instead of two en route to the semis is not the only reason why his week has been far more difficult. The 19-year-old Dane needed a pair of tiebreakers to get past Tim van Rijthoven, overcame Lorenzo Sonego 6-7(1), 6-4, 6-3, and held off Ilya Ivashka 6-2, 5-7, 6-4. This run has come a bit out of nowhere for Rune, as he had been 4-12 in his last 16 matches dating back to Roland Garros before arriving in Sofia.

Sinner is supremely confident in Sofia, is the much better and certainly more experienced indoor hard-court player, has used a lot less energy this week, and is extremely motivated to keep winning in an effort to boost his Nitto ATP Finals bid. Anything other than one-way traffic for the top seed and two-time defending champion would be a surprise.

Prediction: Sinner in 2