Shanghai SF preview and pick: Nadal vs. Tsonga

October 16, 2015 Ricky Match previews 182

Tsonga 2Beijing runner-up Rafael Nadal continues to pick up momentum during the Asian swing as he now finds himself in the Shanghai semifinals on Saturday. Standing in the Spaniard’s way of the title match is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Rafael Nadal and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be squaring off for the 12th time in their careers and for the first time in more than two years when they battle for a spot in the Shanghai Rolex Masters final on Saturday afternoon.

Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 8-3, including an impressive 6-2 on hard courts. Tsonga, however, has at least won two of their last five encounters dating back to the start of the 2011 season. They most recently faced each other on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo in 2013, when Nadal prevailed 6-3, 7-6(3). The two veterans have met twice during the fall swing; Nadal got the job done 7-5, 7-5 at the 2009 Paris Masters and Tsonga scored a 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-3 victory at the 2011 World Tour Finals.

The World Tour Finals is where Nadal is headed despite a disappointing 2015 campaign by his standards. Shanghai’s No. 8 seed owns just three titles and did not reach a single Grand Slam semifinal. But he is picking up momentum in a hurry in Asia. Nadal finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic in Beijing and so far this week he has taken out Ivo Karlovic, Milos Raonic, and Stan Wawrinka.

“Being in the semifinals is a great result for me,” the 14-time major champion commented. “I hadn’t played the semifinals on hard court all year and now I am playing two weeks in a row in the final rounds. That’s a big improvement for me. In terms of confidence, in terms of level of tennis, I am playing better. Very happy for that because I am working so hard.”
Rafa 1
Tsonga is also gaining some much-needed confidence this fall. In part because of an injury-plagued start to the year, the 15th-ranked Frenchman had just 17 match wins to his credit heading into the U.S. Open. That event ended with a tough five-set quarterfinal loss to Marin Cilic, but Tsonga got right back in action to capture a title in Metz. He punched his ticket to the final four in Shanghai by defeating Tommy Robredo, Victor Estrella Burgos, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Kevin Anderson.

Although Tsonga benefited from Roger Federer’s loss to Ramos-Vinolas and arguably from Kei Nishikori’s setback against Anderson, the 16th seed has still needed a combined five hours and 24 minutes to survive his last two matches (2:44 against Ramos-Vinolas and 2:40 against Anderson). That is not a good recipe for success going into a showdown with Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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182 Comments on Shanghai SF preview and pick: Nadal vs. Tsonga

  4. I agree with Ricky’s pick. Rafa seems to be getting better with each match. There is no way that anyone could call his draw in Shanghai easy at all. Being in the semifinal after getting to the final in Beijing, is great news for Rafa.

    Tsonga has always been inconsistent. I also don’t think he has the mental strength to stay with Rafa. If Rafa comes out playing the way he did in his previous matches, then I believe he will get the win.

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  5. I did find myself thinking about the lost opportunity for Rafa and Fed to finally play each other this year. Fed didn’t keep his part of the bargain this time. That would have great to see. They may still have time to meet each other.

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  6. How they get grouped in Tour Final? 1,3,5,7 and 2,4,6,8? Looks like Nole will meet Rafa two/three times before year end and he would equal or lead the H2H at the end of 2015.

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  7. They (Fedal) can meet at Basel or Paris or WTF. I think meeting and pushing Novak close in the first set of Beijing final did help Rafa’s confidence. He now knows he’s getting closer to the top players’ level than when at the beginning or mid of the season.

    Watching the Tomic and Novak match, how I wished Rafa in that Beijing final could play the way Tomic played in the first set, ie serving well, hitting well and mixing in slicing and changing of pace to keep Novak guessing. Rafa was basically trying to outhit Novak the whole match, couldnt succeed because no one could stay with Novak and out rally him, at least in a BO3 match.

    I hope Rafa watched this match and got some inspiration from it, at least that’s another way of pushing Novak, theres no harm in adding in new strategies to your game to give you more choices at your disposal.

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    • I absolutely agree that Rafa was trying to outhit Novak in the Beijing final. That was never going to work. I also agree that Rafa meeting and pushing Novak in the first set was very important. Rafa knew that he had opportunities, but was unable to capitalize. I think he took some real positives out of that match. It’s one reason why I thought it was good for him at that point to play Novak in the final. He needs to go up against the best to see where he’s at. I think he did just that and realized that he’s not that far away and also what must be done to get there.

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  8. Reading between the lines of various comments by Rafa and other members of the team I believe they had worked out a strategy to right the ship but didn’t want to unveil it to soon. Most likely it is still being fined tuned and/or they didn’t want to give the competition too much time to come up with counter attacks before nexr season. Something made them change their minds and the new-style Rafa is being pre-viewed in Shanghai earlier than expected.

    That’s my theory for what it’s worth.

    #WorkInProgress

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    • I think you are partly right but I think the changes are more progressive. I have a feeling they thought he could go all the way at the USO but he was still struggling with some anxiety losing to Fog when he was in control of the match. In the Beijing final, I don’t think Rafa was holding anything back, it was just one of those days when fate was against him because there wasn’t that much between them especially in the 1st set, as Djoker admitted.

      The match against Karlovic was a good tonic because it’s one of those matches you half lose in the locker room no matter how many times you’ve beaten them before. To have come through that in the way he did was a big plus and to follow that with beating Raonic is exceptional. I was so worried about the Karlovic match that I didn’t even bother to look at the rest of the draw, other than knowing Rafa was in Federer’s half.

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  9. The early exits from so many tournaments this year ironically means Rafa has done far fewer tennis miles – he will be much fresher than most people he is likely to face in the coming weeks. Several people have already mentioned how jaded Djokovic is looking. He really doesn’t appear to be enjoying his tennis plus he has the additional strain of being No.1 which carries an onerous workload and the pressure of defending his numerous titles.

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  12. Novak is going to have to defend all these points next year. The good news for Rafa is that he’s not going to have that much to defend. He should go into 2016 with less pressure. Now that we are seeing real signs that his game has improved quite a bit, he will work to be ready for next year.

    I do think that Novak has been showing signs of strain, even at the USO. Winning has its rewards but the pressure of expectations and staying on top is enormous.

    For what it’s worth, I do not think that Rafa is “back”, whatever that really means. I think the mental or emotional issues do appear to have been resolved. His demeanor and body language on court now is in stark contrast to earlier this year. You can see it in his eyes – that fierce concentration and awareness and competitive spirit. But I think Rafa does have some more work to get back to his best. This is a work in progress and Rafa has taken some huge steps in Beijing and Shanghai.

    I know that Rafa will continue to work to be at his very best. Tennis needs Rafa back, because when he’s one there is no one else like him.

    I am enjoying seeing Rafa playing much more like himself. I think he’s enjoying it, too! 🙂

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    • Tiggy never stopped believing in Rafa!

      I agree with your earlier comment above about Rafa’s improvement being progressive even if it was often one step forward and one step back.

      Tiggy also highlighted an important difference between Rafa, Djoker and Roger. Rafa has never held the believe to win is his destiny. The sense of destiny was inculcated by Djoker’s family; for Roger it stems more from an unshakeable belief in his own talent: both of them display that air of entitlement to win whereas Rafa always expresses delighted surprise.

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  15. Koenig and Knowall are yacking before play starts. They’ve both changed their minds big time. Have to laugh after they’d written him off.

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  20. Tsonga gets the first break. Rafa showing signs of angst. Dropping too many balls short, averaging 29 secs before his serve, perspiring a lot etc.

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  29. Rafa not doing too badly. If Tsonga drops his level a little, Rafa can capitalise. Reminds me of the Delpo match he had here in 2013

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  38. Look at how rafa’s returning second serves on BOTH deuce and ad courts! The intent as well as execution is excellent. Fully committed to take the returns on the rise . No hesitation. SO GLAD to see this. You can already see how much pressure he is putting on Tsonga’s second serve.

    4-0! YES!

    I did not watch the first set so not sure how it was. Rafa’s been brilliant in this set

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  42. VAMOS! come onnnn! 5-0! For the first time this year, I feel no insecurity in saying that Rafael Nadal is back and it is only a matter of time before he breaks into the top 3 and starts winning slams again. Soooo encouraging.

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  44. KEEP returning like this rafa and you will get consistent with it. I think team rafa has decided enough is enough and they won’t let others take advantage of his relatively weak ROS… Keep it up rafa! BAGEL here!

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  47. Rafa delivers his fifth bagel of the year!

    Going further, I want to see more power on his forehand, and a bit more dynamism in his movement.

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    • Funny you say that. I was thinking he was slow getting to the ball a lot of the time.
      Is this because Tsonga is mixing it up and Rafa is having trouble reading his play?

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      • tsonga’s first serve % was kind of low and rafa was punishing second serve returns. Of course rafa was very good from the baseline! He made 1 UE in the set but was quite aggressive with his shots. Tsonga was a bit untidy with his shots and made some costly double faults.

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  68. I think Rafa losing now is preferable to enduring a TB with Tsonga pulling aces out of the hat at will.

    Congratulations to Tsonga – he deserved to get the win after keeping his head in the third set.

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    • No, it is also good for him to be in those testing moments and see how he does. This was a bit different from what he faced against Ivo and Raonic because Jo has a massive game from the baseline and he can hit some incredible volleys.

      Rafa did so well to stave off 3 break points in the beginning of the set and he created more chances in the end but lacked the edge today. He will keep progressing.

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    • Too true. But it was also down to Rafa not being able to convert umpteen breakpoints because J-WT was able to pull off the aces so often.

      Overall Rafa’s progress is continuing and we have to remember we were not expecting to see Rafa in the SF let alone the final before the tournament began.

      It’s down to Muzza to do his job now 😉

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      • Absolutely true ed ! it is only because of rafa’s excellent progress that we are now expecting him to reach the finals and fight with the big boys. He is progressing really well and I am sure he will be pumped to improve more after this encouraging week. Don’t think there is anyone better than taking positives (no matter how small) from defeats than rafael nadal

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    • I tend to agree with you here. I do feel Rafa always starts slow, takes more time to settle down and so his opponent has the chance to gain an advantage early on in the match and that’s what happened today. Rafa also lost his serve at his first service game vs Ivo but he was able to break back because of his incredible ROS on that day and also Ivo wasn’t like Tsonga who could hit with more firepower.

      I feel Rafa was still feeling nervous when serving his last service game and thats the problem with him the whole year. I feel the more eager he wants to win, the more nervous he becomes. Against Novak in the Beijing final, he had no expectations to win and so he could play freely. I feel he played better in that match than in this one.

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  72. Tsonga’s going to get smoked in the final now….. damn… rafa should have won this…

    Anyway, I am disappointed but overall I am very happy. So many positives to take !

    Rafa did falter a little bit towards the end but Jo raised his level a lot too…. rafa missing that inside out forehand on 15-30 was frustrating though.

    Rafa’s played some really good tennis this week. He will only be encouraged to work harder and with more confidence.

    keep up the good work Rafa! 🙂

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    • Imo Rafa relied too much on his I/O FH. Tsonga was waiting there at his FH corner for it and then hit a DTL FH winner. To me, Rafa was getting predictable as the match went on, just like his match vs Ivo when by the third set, Ivo was anticipating Rafa’s passing shots so well that he was at the net blocking the passing shots.

      Rafa is clearly still off his best, hitting so many shots into the net; loses the ability to change things up quick enough when things are not working for him. Rafa has lost some speed and power and that makes it even tougher for him to deal with power hitter who also has big serves and could hit with precision. A few of Tsonga’s FHs were just unbelievable, barely touched the baseline!

      Rafa is always at a losing end where his serve is concerned when he faces a big server. He really has to work so hard to hold serve, not helped when he’s bothered by his own nerve. I dont know how Rafa can improve in his serve and stays calm, may be too late to do anything to his serve now. I’m disappointed with a loss like this when its a winnable match. When it mattered, Tsonga served and played well to stay in the match but Rafa couldnt.

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  75. People here are happy to see that Rafa can’t beat the likes of Tsonga? I guess that’s what you call lowered expectations, the new norm, setting the bar quite low lol. Jo’s return game is dreadful yet he broke twice.

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    • Jo has done pretty well against all of the big 4 when he’s had his day…

      No shame in losing to him today as he was playing quite well.

      With rafa, it is not so much about opponents, but about how he himself is playing and handling the situations. He looks much calmer under pressure now.

      I want to see him being more aggressive with his forehand and I feel he lacks dynamism in his movement, esp towards the backhand side. But I am glad Uncle Toni talked about it after Beijing so they know what to work on. He will get there. And remember, even vintage rafa losing in Shanghai won’t be a very big news or something!

      I also liked rafa’s performance against Novak in the beijing final. Yes he lost 6-2 6-2 but I liked his performance in many ways 🙂

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  76. i feared this would happen after the easy second set….Tsonga was saving himself for the third and I just knew it would get tough for Rafa…Rafa missed his big chance to reach the finals…again his nerves did not allow him to play freely on crucial points…When Rafa bageled Tsonga in the second set I recalled the match with Davidenko in Doha which Rafa managed to lose after taking the first set 6:0…

    I am disappointed that yet again Rafa managed to lose…but he is getting there and we should take positives from this tourney…

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  77. So sorry, Rafans, was really hoping this would be IT this time for Rafa, but he can take heart. The big game is still there. Mentality and consistency would benefit from a new coach, I think.
    What about Jo-W though?! He seems to thrive on the vibes of the crowd and the crowd does love him wherever he goes. He’s more connected to his audience that just about any other player I can think of – trouble is, it works both ways and he seems to wobble when they’re nervous too.

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  78. Wow Tsonga got the win. After the second set I thought Rafa would get it done. Big win for Jo Willy nonetheless I’ll be rooting for him in the final no matter who he plays. I actually got up early and saw Rafa up 5-0 in the second and was gonna watch but I thought Rafa would win like 6-0 and 6-3 or something I don’t know why I thought that I guess I was just tired but I got up like two hours later and saw the result and wished I had recorded it. Was it good match overall? I hope they replay the final set later at least.

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    • Well I wasn’t rooting for anyone really lol. I just want to know if it was good tennis. I mean would’ve happy been Rafa and rooted for him in final and same to Jo. Basically I wanted winner of that semifinal to go on and win the title no matter who won. To be honest I was expecting Rafa though so that result sort of shocked me but Tsonga is very dangerous.

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  80. Good news is Rafa and berdych are basically set for atp finals well good news about Rafa but current berdych probably won’t make impact. Also Tsonga has chance of making the O2 especially if Murray withdraws because of the Davis cup.

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  81. For what it’s worth I think Rafa will take positives from this tournament. He beat Stan for his first top 4 win of the season and he barely lost in semis and it was a masters 1000. Also he beat two monster servers in first two matches and broke in each match. I would say Rafa is back to full health and the confidence is almost back to normal.

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  82. I’m wondering if Ricky still thinks Rafa wont play O2. It’s a moot point. He’s very motivated to help Spain get back to the World Group and to prepare for AO. OTH he may well want to continue testing himself against the top players.

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  84. honestly, Tsonga stands no chance even if playing his best game…Novak is just too good…he saves his best game for the finals…Rafa had his chances today and he blew it…Even though Tsonga played some good points it was Rafa who lost today rather than Tsonga wining it…we are all aware of it…

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  86. The Djoker fooled me. He ain’t jaded today! He’s making Andy looked vin ordinaiire right now.

    At least I didn’t believe him when he proclaimed tennis was no longer his No.1 priority: his wife and son would be the most important things in his life.

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  87. It’s one of the things I dislike. The way he makes PC remarks to suit the occasion – always seeking sound-bite opportunities, not to mention the chance of a photo call…
    Although to his credit so far he has not over exposed the child.

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    • So you are saying that Novak was not sincere when he said that his wife and child were his first priority. Why is that PC or just a sound-bite? Is it because the guy is so far above the rest of the field that you believe tennis must be his first priority? I’ll let you in on a little secret. He’s just that good.

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  88. I started watching my recording and when Rafa lost that first set I decided to go online and check the score. I was really surprised to see that he lost in three sets. From what I saw, Tsonga was playing some great aggressive tennis in that first set, but Rafa blew his opportunity to get back in it when he missed those break chances.

    I will watch the entire match later. It’s surprising because Rafa came back so strong to bagel him in that second set. One would think he’d have the momentum in the third set.

    I guess there is more work for Rafa to do as I said yesterday.

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  89. I don’t think Tsonga has a chance against Novak. From what I am reading here, it appears that Rafa let this one get away. I will definitely check out the last two sets to see how it got away. That third set was tight.

    Tsonga can get hot and when his serve is on, he can do some damage. But it won’t matter against Novak. It should be an easy straight set win for him in the final.

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  90. Even the most ardent fans have not claimed Rafa is fully rehabilitated. It will be interesting to see what he has to say about his performance. Leaving emotions to one side, overall it was not his best but neither was it a total disaster. It was understandable one had high hopes for today but Tsonga cleverly didn’t allow him any rhthym in the first set and everybody knew thatt could be crucial in this particular match.

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  91. I am happy with rafa’s performance. Its not his favouite period of the season. Courts and balls(remember he complained in 2013 or so) dont favour his game. Hence, he is loosing control on his shots.

    TSonga can’t do anything in final. Back to back three setters and spent all his enery already.. Expecting 6-3, 6-1 score and reading how great God Nole is all over.

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    • He shouldn’t be particularly thrilled by those last two games of the match.

      He was serving at an outrageous 83% for the match when suddenly it deserted him in his last service game and he played too tentatively getting broken and allowing tsonga too serve it out.

      Tsonga played well and Rafa also but still much room for improvement.

      He’s not ready to compete with Novak yet.

      Only Federer is.

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    • Rafa is very smart when it comes to analyzing his matches. Having watched the first set, I agree with him. I was thinking that Tsonga was getting the better court positioning and then was able to dictate play. Rafa’s awareness of it is a good thing.

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  94. “Djokovic plays safe, boring tennis…………………..that’s his secret. As luckystar said, he has to be taken out of his comfort zone.”

    lol. Ricky please enlighten your kids.

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  96. I said a few times that it’s a work in progress. It’s not like he’s going to go out there and suddenly beat everyone. It’s going to take more time. I also didn’t think Rafa was yet in his best form. He can play at a higher level. He knows it and will continue to work toward that goal.

    I can handle this loss. Of course, I wanted Rafa to win. But he’s played so well these past two weeks and has had such satisfying wins that I have to feel good right now.

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  97. Guess we all got ahead of ourselves. I dont think anyone expected Tsonga to win today. Bummed to read this.I was secretly hoping Rafa beats Tsonga today, Murray beats Novak and maybe Rafa beats Murray in final and lays his hand on the elusive Shanghai Rolex trophy.

    7 5 in 3rd seems matter of few points here and there. Looks like Rafa did not capitalize well. Still work to do though positives to draw from last 2 weeks.

    Redaing mixed comments here. Some saying Rafa lost it more than Tsonga won. Some saying Rafa played well enough.Tsonga can catch fire and has caused trouble to Top 4 on various occasions. Remember he beat Fed last year at Montreal/Toronoto in final 7 5 , 7 6 and won his Masters.

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  99. Unfortunately what Rafa is lacking today is the killing instinct. At key points in the match, he dropped his forehand short, with not much depth and power on Tsonga’s forehand, allowing Tsonga to hit winners. Nadal hasn’t used much his shot down the line today either, and it is the only way he can’t beat Novak, with his shot down the line back to its 2013 form. Overall, a much better performance from Nadal, but he need that killing instinct back, he needs to kill a match before his opponent gets into it. And the only eay he can do that is having some of his decisive shots back (and having the confidence to play any shot from anywhere-deal better with drop shots, kill a point with his forehands down the line, acing at crucial times, and not starting to serve second serves in crucial games…)

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    • London Y, I agree with everything you say but I think there is a little bit of nerves left rather than not having the killer instinct. He had to play at a high stressful level for almost every round.

      Yes I was surprised he didn’t use his dtl passing shot in returning serve which was what saved him against Dr Ace. There is no doubt that Rafa had a tough, tough draw. To have overcome the tirade of aces from both Karlo and Raonic one after the other then run into Tsonga was too much.

      He is a lot further on to where he was in Canada; I look forward to a better 2016 for Rafa. How many players have had the injuries and illness that Rfa has had to cope with?

      Vamos

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      • I agree with you Nadline. 2016 should be really interesting. If Nadal carries on on this improvement curve with no major set back, the clay season might give him the final push to get to where he wants to. Would be really interesting to see how Djokovic will cope with all the titles he won in 2015. He is getting used to it now, defending titles. It is hugely surprising that there is no one competing with him right this second, and that there is no young tennis player having the crazy belief of youth that they can beat him. It is about time for the new generation to kick in, but until then I will sit back and hope for real competition in the “big four”.

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  100. Now that I have watched my recording of the entire match, I have a few thoughts. Rafa lost a key opportunity in the first set when he had Tsonga down 15-40 to break back and even things up. He did not get another chance. However, I do not think that was the key to the match. Rafa stormed back in the second set and just took over. Tsonga looked like he was doing one of his walkabouts, but Rafa really played aggressive and didn’t let him get anything going. After that bagel, one might have thought that Rafa would have the momentum going into the third set.

    One other key moment was early in that third set when Tsonga had Rafa down 0-40. Rafa came up with some great serves and stellar shot making to hold his serve. Again, one would think this crucial hold of serve would help Rafa to prevail. It was a tight battle until 5-5. Tsonga was aggressive going after the break, but Rafa helped it along.

    Rafa missed a volley at the net to lose his serve and they showed a close up of his face. He knew what it meant – he was going to lose this match. A few errors and that was all it took. Tsonga played really well in that third set. I thought both players did.

    This is not like Rafa’s other losses where he just gave away the matches. He played really well in this match, but it came down to a few points and that was it. He should come away from this knowing that he played his best. That’s all anyone can ask.

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    • Exactly what I was thinking. I feel like Rafa is almost back to his best and steadily gaining confidence back. He won’t be a non factor in Melbourne imo he just has to hope he is on opposite side of Novak. It would be horrible luck for him if he got Novak in quarters like at the French.

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  101. My take on the match is totally in line with how Rafa feels about it.

    nadline10 says:
    October 17, 2015 at 11:04 am
    The damage was done in the 1st set when Rafa dropped his serve otherwise he would have won in straight sets.

    ***********************************************
    Rafa: ” If there is something I’m not happy about it’s the first 6 games; he had better court position than me.”

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  102. Rafa is not mentally ready to meet Djoker yet, he’s getting there but he needs to bed down the improvements he’s made on the psychological front first. He’s got the game but he needs to lose the nerves.

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  104. My take on the match stands. I said specifically that Rafa missed a key opportunity to get even in that first set when he couldn’t convert those break points. However, it is not a given that he would have won the first set. Getting the break would only have gotten him even. It could have gone to a TB and he still might have lost. He could have been broken again.

    Also, Rafa did not say that those missed opportunities were the reason why he lost the match. He just said he was not happy about those six games because Tsonga had the better court positioning.

    The fact that Rafa came back so strong in that second set and bageled Tsonga, was a good sign. I do think it was key for him to hold serve early in the third set, especially since he was down 0-40. That kept him even in the set. Then late in the third set he had some tough luck when he missed a volley at net on break point. Just a few errors and that was it. Not a terrible thing by any means.

    I distinctly remember saying that Rafa wasn’t at a high enough level to beat Novak in the Beijing final. It’s good to realize that there is more awareness that this is the case. He is definitely on the right track. More work needs to be done on that forehand. But the fact that Rafa wasn’t tired, the fact that he stayed in the match mentally and kept fighting and did his best, are all good things. I have confidence that he will get there.

    Reply

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