Shanghai R3 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Raonic, Berdych vs. Simon

BerdychBoth Rafael Nadal and Milos Raonic are coming off third-set tiebreaker wins as they head into a round of 16 showdown on Thursday in Shanghai. Tomas Berdych and Gilles Simon are also part of a jam-packed schedule.

(8) Rafael Nadal vs. (9) Milos Raonic

Nadal and Raonic will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers and for the second time this season when they battle for a spot in the quarterfinals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Thursday. Each of their first four encounters were positively dominated by Nadal, but the tide started to turn last season in Miami. Raonic finally got a set off the Spaniard in a 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 loss and he got all the way over the hump almost exactly one year later. At the 2015 Indian Wells Masters, the Canadian prevailed 4-6, 7-6(10), 7-5.

Speaking of three-set thrillers, this matchup just barely came to fruition. Shortly after Raonic saved a match point to beat Roberto Bautista Agut 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-6(5), Nadal also survived in a third-set tiebreaker with a 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(4) win over Ivo Karlovic. Raonic preceded his victory by defeating Thomaz Bellucci in a pair of tiebreakers, while Nadal is coming off a strong runner-up performance in Beijing. Whereas the 14-time major champion appears to be heating up, Raonic continues to struggle in the aftermath of a mid-season foot injury. It does not help the No. 9 seed’s chances that he dealt with a hip issue against Bautista Agut on Wednesday.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(10) Gilles Simon vs. (5) Tomas Berdych

Berdych has not defeated anyone ranked better than No. 26 in the world since this spring’s Madrid Masters as he heads into third-round Shanghai action on Thursday. The fifth-ranked Czech has been in a relative slump by his standards, although he at least managed to capture a 250-point title in Shenzhen earlier this month. Berdych almost lost his opener this week but battled to a 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4 victory over 33rd-ranked American Jack Sock.

Next up for the No. 5 seed is a 12th career meeting with Simon, who enjoys a 7-4 edge in the head-to-head series. The Frenchman is 3-1 lifetime at Berdych’s expense on outdoor hard courts. An alarmingly routine Wimbledon contest this summer went Simon’s way 6-3, 6-3, 6-2. The world No. 14 bounced back from a shocking five-set loss to Donald Young in round one of the U.S. Open to finish runner-up in Metz and reach the Tokyo quarterfinals. So far this week he has taken out Nikoloz Basilashvili and Leonardo Mayer in three sets. Everything points to another win for Simon in this one.

Pick: Simon in 2

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66 Comments on Shanghai R3 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Raonic, Berdych vs. Simon

  1. What a relief! For the first time this year commentators are showing more respect for Rafa 🙂 A few references to his mediocre performance this year but not the endless catalogue of who (with their ranking) has beaten him.

    • Good point. Particularly if they dont have any other lethal weapon.
      Raonic has developed more to his game but is still too dependent on his serve.

      One swallow does not a summer make but consecutive swallows in two days promises good weather ahead!!!!!!!!!!!!

      PS: Milos looks even more like a cross between a Madam Taussads waxwork and a ventriloquest’s dummy than usual.

  2. That’s the way to go! Another win for our Rafa! The points won on second serve have significantly improved. We can see the difference and progress in Rafa’s game…keep up the good work, Rafa!!!

    Vamos Rafa!

  3. When I said, on Sunday, that Rafa’s game wasn’t far off, the doomsayers were not having it. They were deriding him saying he was misfiring, blah, blah, blah. I’ve been proved right.

    • Rafa, I am happy you are happy! See you making steady progress, a lot more calm and confident on court, going for your shot, just the way I have always known you to play!! If you keep this up good things are going to happen for you next year! you movement is great, you look a lot fresher….one match at a time Rafa.

      Good luck tomorrow, I know you can beat Stan!!! Vamos!!

    • Oh this is so sweet to see! Beautiful! I knew that Laver was watching the match. I got up and watched my recording of the match this morning. It was great to see Rafa playing so well! He’s really coming back.

      Sometimes life intervenes and that’s why I am late getting on here, but it was a joy to watch this match! 🙂

  4. Quotes from Rafa’s post-match press-conference in the article by the ATP Staff:
    ¤¤ “Today, I felt that I was not playing with as much nerves when I am on court,” said Nadal. “I was able to enjoy the match.”
    “Winning a match 7‑6 in the third yesterday and winning a match again today in the tiebreak of a second set, two tiebreaks without losing a point with my serve, it’s impossible if you don’t have control of your emotions. That’s something that, a couple of months ago, would have been impossible for me,” added Nadal.
    “My serve obviously worked much better than yesterday, but when I play well on my service game, it’s not just because I serve well, but especially because I play well from the baseline,” said Nadal. ¤¤
    Read more in:
    http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/shanghai-2015-thursday-nadal-downs-raonic-wawrinka-faces-cilic

    • This is interesting, because I said something to the effect yesterday that a few months ago Rafa would not have won the match against Karlovic. So Rafa agrees!

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