Shanghai R3 previews and picks: Djokovic vs. Fognini, Wawrinka vs. Raonic

Novak Djokovic will continue his bid for a second straight Shanghai title when he battles Fabio Fognini on Thursday. Stanislas Wawrinka and Milos Raonic are also looking for a place in the quarterfinals. Chris Skelton previews the action.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. Fabio Fognini

A steely determination emanated from the deposed world No. 2 last week in Beijing, where he dominated the man who dethroned him. That victory over Rafael Nadal should have infused Djokovic with immense self-belief heading into Shanghai, his last chance to claim a Masters 1000 title on an outdoor hard court this year. Swatting aside Marcel Granollers for the loss of just two games, the top seed delivered an impressive statement as a quarterfinal clash with Roger Federer looms on Friday. Only one more opponent bars Djokovic’s path to that first meeting of 2013 with one of his arch rivals.

Seeking his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal on a hard court, Fognini proved that he can shine at this level when he reached a semifinal in Monte Carlo this spring. He upset Top-10 opponents Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet that week, only to absorb a pounding from Djokovic on his favorite surface and the Serb’s least effective. Djokovic has won all of their main-draw meetings, no matter the surface–but not all of them comfortably. Fognini twice has extended Djokovic to a third set in 2012-13, including an odd roller-coaster at Indian Wells this year when he recovered from a first-set bagel to steal the second set.

A dip in focus cost the favorite that set, however, and the Italian probably cannot expect another against the more disciplined version of Djokovic who has arrived in Asia. Inferior to the Serb in every area of the game, Fognini’s slim chances rest on not just a wobble from his opponent but a sub-par performance that persists from start to finish. He pounced on just such a hiccup from Nadal in Beijing last week, even leading by a set and a break. A member of the Big 4 rarely fails to regroup at some stage and force the underdog to earn the upset, as Nadal confirmed by reeling off 11 of the last 12 games. Fognini lacks the sustained form and focus required to finish matches against these elite opponents despite the entertaining flair that he brings to the court.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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(8) Stanislas Wawrinka vs. (10) Milos Raonic

This early-round match at a Masters 1000 tournament contains plenty of implications for the World Tour Finals next month. Both Wawrinka and Raonic received a boon when Andy Murray announced on Wednesday that he would withdraw from that season-ending event. Already at No. 8 in the race, the Swiss No. 2 moves up to a virtual seventh, while the broad-shouldered Canadian rises to the brink of the cut-off at No. 9. A win for either man would consolidate his position, but a loss would strike a vital blow considering the significance of the event.

The match looms larger for Raonic than for Wawrinka, and recent form suggests that he should enter as the favorite despite trailing his opponent in the rankings. Since reaching his first major semifinal at the U.S. Open, Wawrinka suffered surprising losses to Julien Benneteau in Kuala Lumpur and Sam Querrey in Beijing. He needed a third-set tiebreak to escape the slumping Kevin Anderson to start his week in Shanghai, suggesting that his vulnerability persists. By contrast, Raonic built upon an unspectacular but solid second-week appearance at the U.S. Open this fall. A champion in Bangkok and a finalist in Tokyo, he surely eyes the prospect of a debut at the World Tour Finals as motivation. His second win in Shanghai came at the expense of Fernando Verdasco, the only man to win a set from Djokovic in Beijing last week.

The surfaces of fall generally favor the overwhelming power that Raonic wields.  Yet Shanghai typically has not played as fast as many tournaments during this stage of the season. If Wawrinka can survive the first punishing blow from his opponent, his far steadier groundstrokes and superior fitness should allow him to grind down Raonic. Especially notable is the contrast between their backhands, which should help the No. 8 win most baseline exchanges oriented around those strokes. Wawrinka won his only previous meeting with Raonic at Cincinnati last year after rallying from the brink of a straight-set defeat. Expect a similarly tight collision this time between two men with so much at stake.

Pick: Wawrinka in 3

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