Shanghai QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Wawrinka, Anderson vs. Tsonga

October 15, 2015 Ricky Match previews 180

Rafa 3Rafael Nadal will continue his Shanghai campaign on Friday against Stan Wawrinka. Kevin Anderson and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are also hoping to snag a spot in the semifinals.

(8) Rafael Nadal vs. (4) Stan Wawrinka

Wawrinka and Nadal will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Friday. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 12-2, but the tide has begun to turn. Wawrinka captured his first of two Grand Slam titles at the 2014 Australian Open by upsetting a hobbled Spaniard 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3. The Swiss won his second in a row at Nadal’s expense by getting the job done 7-6(7), 6-2 earlier this season in Rome. They have faced each other twice in Shanghai, with Nadal coming out on top 6-4, 6-4 in the 2010 second round and 7-6(10), 6-1 in the 2013 quarterfinals.

The world No. 7 has done well to back up a solid runner-up showing in Beijing, although his week almost never got off the ground. Nadal needed in a third-set tiebreaker to survive Ivo Karlovic 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(4) before taking out another huge server–Milos Raonic–via a 6-3, 7-6(3) decision on Thursday. Wawrinka got past Viktor Troicki 7-6(3), 6-3 and Marin Cilic 7-5, 6-7(7), 6-4 to reach the last eight. The fourth seed and recent Tokyo champion is 14-1 in his last 15 matches dating back to the start of the U.S. Open. But so much tennis may be catching up with Wawrinka, who dealt with a shoulder injury against Cilic and will not be helped by spending two hours and 54 minutes on court. This sets up nicely for Nadal to continue his upswing in both form and confidence.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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(12) Kevin Anderson vs. (16) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Anderson appears to be playing inspired, statement-making tennis after breaking into the top 10 for the first time in his career on Monday. A run to the U.S. Open quarterfinals helped propel him to 10th in the world, although he has been consistent almost the whole season with a 42-20 record. The 6’8” South African has bounced back nicely from an opening-round loss in Tokyo to score straight-set victories in Shanghai over Tommy Haas, Fabio Fognini, and Kei Nishikori.

Up next for Anderson on Friday is a second-ever meeting with Tsonga. Their only previous encounter came last year on the clay courts of Rome, where the Frenchman prevailed 7-6(14), 7-6(5). An otherwise lackluster 2015 campaign saw Tsonga pick up momentum with a quarterfinal showing in New York followed by a title in Metz. The world No. 15 looked lifeless in his Beijing opener last week but he is back on track in Shanghai with defeats of Tommy Robredo, Victor Estrella Burgos, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Anderson has enjoyed a more routine week at the office and a confident, well-rested No. 12 seed should maintain his perfect record as a member of the top 10.

Pick: Anderson in 3

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180 Comments on Shanghai QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Wawrinka, Anderson vs. Tsonga

  3. I’m going with Stan in 3 in a toss up and Kevin in 3 in another close call. I’m liking the form of both right now so I’ll give them the edge though Stan is probably more likely to lose than Kevin to be honest considering his recent abundance of matches in Tokyo and here and having to play long match with Cilic plus shoulder bothering him. He usually brings his best against the big four though. And Rafa is struggling so if that happens Stan should win so I’ll take him in 3. As for Kevin his new top 10 status has really caused him to play even better it seems. His win over nishikori further solidifies that he deserves this status and I think he will be a bit too solid for Jo willy though the Frenchman could win if he plays at his best.

    Reply

  6. Hey, Rick’s picking Rafa now! I am going with him and saying it will be Rafa in 3 sets. I am trying to watch the replays of some of the matches, but I don’t know what kind of form Stan’s in right now.

    However, after what I saw from Rafa today even if it was not Raonic at his best, I think he’s really made progress. Stan is the #4 player now. If Rafa can beat him, then this will mean he’s beaten someone who is at least in the top ten, if not one of the top players such as Novak, Fed or Murray. Oh and I still consider Rafa to be in that group.

    Reply

  7. Oops, I forgot Anderson/Tsonga. I was wrong when I picked Nishi to beat Anderson. I saw some of that match and it seems that Nishi has fallen back a bit. But all credit to Anderson. Based on this result I am going with Ricky’s pick of Anderson over Tsonga in 3 sets.

    Reply

  8. Oh, I just realized that my pick of Stan beating Cilic was right. I got a few right. I think it’s time for Rafa to face Stan. He has to play against top ten players and even those ranked in the top five to see where he’s at now. This is a good thing!

    Let’s do this Rafa!:)

    Reply

  12. That’s what I wanted to know regarding Stan’s form now. I am hoping to see a replay of his match with Cilic. Right now the tennis channel is replaying Rafa’s match with Raonic. It’s good to know that someone who saw the match thinks that Stan is not in very good form.

    Reply

  15. Tuned in just in time to see the start of the 2nd set. Pity Anderson didn’t capitilise on the TB. He is definitely tight today. If he takes it to a third set then I think he stands a good chance. Hope he does.

    Reply

  16. J-WT has just shown why he doesn’t have more titles to his name. He over pressed and made three consecutive errors to lose the set. Anderson can win this if he stays calm.

    Reply

  29. I woke up in time to see the start of this match. So I have been watching it. This is something else from Rafa! I think he’s raised his level of play in this match.

    Great effort to get that break! Now serve out the first set!

    You can do this, Rafa!

    Reply

  30. Now the excuses start for Stan like he does not have the hunger for long drawn out rallies. 🙂 They told us at the start that Rafa was the underdog.

    Rafa takes 1st set 62.

    Reply

  32. Good grief! I’m so tired that I didn’t realize Rafa wasn’t serving for the set! But he gets the break and wins the first set!

    Outstanding!

    Reply

  36. He’s on fire! I thought Stan came out thinking he would blow Rafa off the court, but Rafa didn’t let that happen. I think Rafa’s forehand is the difference in this match. He’s got that forehand clicking.

    This is the best I’ve seen Rafa play yet in this tournament. He’s gone to another level.

    Reply

  38. I couldn’t make it through Anderson/Tsonga. Even though I picked Anderson to win, I am happy that Tsonga got it done.

    Reply

  40. Robbie Koenig and whoever just said that Stan is rushing, not finishing the points. I think he’s feeling the pressure.

    Reply

  43. Rafa up 3-0!

    In the close ups of Rafa’s face, his eyes are so intense. He’s been that way all week. He’s got his game face on!

    Reply

  48. They just posted the UE’s. I know that Rafa has only 13. I can’t remember what Stan’s was because I am too tired. All I know is that it’s a lot more than Rafa. Something in the 20’s I think.

    Rafa is up 4-0! This is just unreal!

    Reply

    • vamosrafa,

      Nice to see you here!

      I can’t believe I woke up in time to see this match!

      Rafa beats the #4 player in the world!

      Rafa, you are the man!!!

      Reply

  66. I do not want to take anything away from Rafa…he was playing well…But Wawa was not in this match…he looked like he couldn’t wait to leave the court… 🙂

    but, our Rafa is in the semis and he is earned it!!! Great job, Rafa! I am so proud of you!

    Vamos Rafa!!!

    Reply

  67. His whole game was off. The commies were saying that he had a long, tough match against Cilic. Are they saying that’s the reason for his poor performance today?

    Rafa is in the semifinals!

    This is like a dream and I don’t want to wake up!

    Bring on Tsonga!

    Reply

  68. Stan had 34 UE’s in a two set match. That says a lot.

    I don’t know what was up with Stan. It did seem that he wanted to get off the court as quickly as possible.

    Reply

    • Yesterday the ATP news items carried the headline ‘Djokovic and Anderson CHARGE into the QFs’ but Rafa was billed as ‘Rafa ROLLS into the QFs.’

      I asked myself if the choice of adverbs was significant 😉

      Reply

  71. Ah well, thank you Stan, you can go back to beating Fed and Nole 🙂
    I’m so happy. Well done to Rafa, the fact that Stan was shite today it’s probably connected with how sharp Rafa turned up for this match.

    Reply

  74. Rafa’s body language is so different. He is turning into his old version of a cold-blooded tennis virtuoso…I think it was enough for the tennis world to enjoy the weak field without real Rafa…the situation is changing and it is happening NOW…

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

  75. Benny G says:
    October 15, 2015 at 2:50 pm
    “I’m going with Stan in 3 in a toss up and Kevin in 3 in another close call. I’m liking the form of both right now so I’ll give them the edge though Stan is probably more likely to lose than Kevin to be honest considering his recent abundance of matches in Tokyo and here and having to play long match with Cilic plus shoulder bothering him. He usually brings his best against the big four though. And Rafa is struggling so if that happens Stan should win so I’ll take him in 3. As for Kevin his new top 10 status has really caused him to play even better it seems.”

    **************************************************************************
    A struggling Rafa takes Stan down 62 62.

    Vamos!

    Reply

    • This clearly shows that Rafa is now moving up to the baseline and even inside to hit his shots. It’s a great indicator of how things have changed since IW earlier this year.

      Reply

  77. In all fairness, I think Benny’s assessment wasn’t far off – he did mention that Stan would win in 3 IF Rafa struggled but it was the contrary today. If Rafa continues with this progression predictions will be going the other way very soon.

    Reply

  78. Benny G says:
    October 15, 2015 at 2:50 pm
    “I’m going with Stan in 3 in a toss up and Kevin in 3 in another close call. I’m liking the form of both right now so I’ll give them the edge though Stan is probably more likely to lose than Kevin to be honest considering his recent abundance of matches in Tokyo and here and having to play long match with Cilic plus shoulder bothering him. He usually brings his best against the big four though. And Rafa is struggling so if that happens Stan should win so I’ll take him in 3. As for Kevin his new top 10 status has really caused him to play even better it seems.”

    **************************************************************************
    A struggling Rafa takes Stan down 62 61.. ( Sky has 62 62 on the screen).

    Vamos!

    Reply

  80. C’mon, “going with Stan in 3 in a toss up” is hardly expecting Rafa to get schooled.
    Benny was wrong, as it happens roughly with 50 % of predictions, that it all.

    Reply

    • I did not say Benny said Rafa would get schooled I said he thought Stan would win because Rafa was struggling but, INSTEAD, Stan got schooled. You are misinterpreting my words.

      Reply

  81. They flashed up Rafa’s average pre serve time. It was 45 secs. And yet he is posting excellent serve stats. Another encouraging sign of his progress.

    Rafa said he was going to do it his way. And what’s more he has. Once may be a fluke. Twice may be good luck. Three times is a Trend.

    Reply

  84. Ah yes, get your point now nadline, I read one thing and processed another. I just felt, and maybe this wasn’t your intention at all, that we’re telling people off just because they’re making wrong predictions about Rafa. Benny’s one was very civilised.

    Reply

  85. Wow, SOOOOOOOOOOO delighted for rafa. Just had to drop by and say many congrats to all rafans … may this be the bump start he needs to get right back to the top of his game. The rest of the top seeds will no doubt now be remembering what the fear of rafa was like. long may this continue:-0

    Reply

    • alex,

      Nice to see you again! Can I expect you to be here live blogging with us for Novak/Andy? That should be a good one!

      Also, I appreciate your kind words to all of the long suffering Rafa fans here! 🙂

      Reply

      • Hey NNY, thanks for welcome:-) Tbh I’m not hopeful for anyone against noble these days, not even muzz:( If Rafa can pick up where he left off today and muzz puts nole through the grinder before losing, nole could be your man’s for the taking on Sunday – nobody would be more delighted than I if he did.

        Reply

  93. great result for rafa. i wonder if the fact that this is always his worst time of year results wise is actually helping him a bit as there is least pressure and expectations right now??he himself said recently he didn’t have many expectations for this part of the year given his weak results even when at his best…maybe that has actually relaxed him?

    Reply

    • amy,

      First, great to see you here posting! I hope you will continue to do so. I think you make an excellent point about there being less pressure and expectations. I said myself that I did not have expectations for Rafa. That was not meant as a dig. I just did not know what to expect and this has been a time of year that has not been good for Rafa.

      I didn’t realize that Rafa did say he doesn’t have many expectations. So I guess what I said wasn’t that far off.

      I do think it’s part of why Rafa is playing better. But I also think that he has been working with his team on different things. Since there’s nothing to lose at this point in the year, why not try to work on some things. One example is Rafa choosing to serve first. He did say that he’s trying different things. But he has also said that his focus is on 2016. So I think the fact that there is little pressure now, combined with some changes and work that Rafa has done with his team, is now showing results.

      Reply

      • nny, hope you are feeling better now health-wise?? have been worrying about you….
        how many times did i say earlier in the year that rafa should serve first….!! glad he’s finally come round to my way of thinking….! better late than never…!
        is this the twist in the movie titled rafa redux!! let’s hope so….

        Reply

    • Amy, I agree, but I would add that Rafa losing early in all those Spring-Summer tournaments means he is not mentally and emotionally exhausted.

      Reply

      • jeu nadal..thanx for that… i always like reading your comments..
        do think though that the stress rafa has been under must have taken it out of him at every level…poor lamb!!

        Reply

  95. ATP Staff, Oct. 16, 2015: ¤¤ Nadal Surges Past Wawrinka Into Semis¤¤
    http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/nadal-surges-into-shanghai-semifinals

    Excerpts:
    ¤¤ “Being in the semi-finals is a great result for me,” said Nadal. “I hadn’t played the semi-finals on hard court all year and now I am playing two weeks in a row in the final rounds. That’s a big improvement for me. In terms of confidence, in terms of level of tennis, I am playing better. Very happy for that because I am working so hard.”

    …the Spaniard will face Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, whom he has beaten in eight of their past 11 meetings.
    “It is a court that he [Tsonga] likes to play on,” said Nadal. “The court is quick. He feels comfortable on these surfaces because he has a huge serve, very, very good forehand. He likes to hit the serve and then hit the forehand and go to the net. He’s a very competitive player. When he’s in the semi-finals it’s because he’s playing well. So it will be a very tough match. I hope to play well, keep doing like every day, playing a little bit better every day. I hope tomorrow to continue with that improvement.” ¤¤

    Reply

  96. When Rafa loses no excuses are made on his behalf the doomsayers line up to deride him, but there is no shortage of people coming out in Stan’s defence. ?

    Reply

  97. At least I don’t have to endure people saying Rafa is not in Stan’s league because, clearly, it’s Stan who is not in Rafa’s league.

    Reply

  101. Video by Letv. Rafa’s post-match press conference / QF Shanghai Masters 2015:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqLZ9Y3WZhA

    From the video:
    QUESTION: “Rafa, you talked many times about how you control your emotions better on court now. What changed? Did you seek help from a mental coach & sports psychologist or you just changed your own attitude?”
    RAFA: “Well, the first thing is, I think that’s a personal thing, so I normally don’t like to talk about personal things. I talk about my public things… But in terms of the work of try to control my emotions, I think, it’s a work of every day…”

    [It’s possible that I didn’t understand every word. 🙂 The official transcript will be available on Saturday.]

    Reply

  102. Thanks for this.

    Rafa when asked if working with a sports psychologist (3:15 mark) says he doesn’t want to talk about personal things.

    It’s becoming more and more obvious that he’s doing just that by his recent change in words, tactics and body language.

    Looks like my meetings earlier in the year with Benny are finally paying off.

    #YoureWelcome
    #BetterLateThanNever
    #MentalInjuryOnTheMend
    #Humb1e

    Reply

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