Shanghai QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov will be facing each other for the 11th time in their careers and for the second time in two weeks when they meet again in the quarterfinals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Friday.

Nadal just recently improved to 9-1 lifetime in the head-to-head series when he got the best of Dimitrov 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 in last week’s Beijing semifinals. The Spaniard is 6-1 against the Bulgarian on hard courts and 3-0 overall this season. They also squared off at the Australian Open, where Nadal prevailed 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4.

Nadal ended up losing the final Down Under to Roger Federer, but he bounced back to capture Grand Slam titles at Roland Garros and the U.S. Open. The world No. 1 has parlayed his momentum from New York into further success on the Asian swing, currently riding a 14-match winning streak that also includes the Beijing winner’s trophy. Fatigue could have been a factor for Nadal in Shanghai, but he needed a grand total of only one hour and 57 minutes to dispose of Jared Donaldson and Fabio Fognini.

“I played a very good match,” the top seed said after beating Fognini. “I don’t know how many mistakes, how many unforced errors (I made), but (it was) very few. And I played very well in all aspects. I have been doing things very well. So…of course, big result, 6-3, 6-1 against a player like him…. Two good matches, for sure today is a very good result for me, and being in (the) quarterfinals of course is great news.”

It is great news for Dimitrov, too, because he is now almost certain to join Nadal at next month’s World Tour Finals. In fact, he will clinch a spot if he pulls off the upset on Friday. The ninth-ranked Bulgarian is 40-16 this year following defeats of two Americans in Shanghai. Dimitrov fought off three match points to outlast Ryan Harrison 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(6) in his opener before taking care of Sam Querrey 6-3, 7-6(3) on Thursday.

This would normally be a good opportunity for the underdog to score some revenge with Nadal coming off a long week in Beijing, but the favorite has looked better than Dimitrov–and everyone else–so far this week. And the lopsided 9-1 head-to-head history is hard to look past.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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113 Comments on Shanghai QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

    • Out of 10 meetings, R. Nadal has only defeated G. Dimitrov twice in straight sets and those straight set wins were on clay.

      G. Dimitrov has won a set in their last 4 meetings, Dimi defeated Rafa in straight sets in Beijing(2016).
      I wasn’t impressed with Dimitrov in his 1st match in shanghai, he defeated R. Harrison in 3 sets but stepped it up against S. Querrey.

      I would love to see G. Dimitrov defeat Rafa not because i hate Rafito, i like Nadal a lot but since you guys love to make unnecessary noise, belittle the wins of those who have defeated R. Nadal by making unfair & biased excuses, i want nadal to win ok cos R. Federer will be waiting 4 him.

      Your love,
      Stanley.

      • Considering Fed has looked a little bit lack lustre, I, too, hope they both make it to the final. Fed has been avoiding Nadal since the clay season, hope he has nowhere to hide in China.

        Vamos Rafa!

        • Nadline’s comment needs an award “the worst comment of the year” i am being polite when i say it’s the worst.

          Nadline how can you say R. Federer is avoiding R. Nadal after all that he has done to nadal this year.
          Are you licking toads again?
          Someone told me a few years ago, if u lick a toad you will get high and probably die.

          My fear is that Nadal might lose his semifinal or quarterfinal’s match, i truly want him to make it to the finals cos i want a Fedal, 3-0 is not a enough 5-0 is what i need.

          Talk soon.

        • To be honest, half of me wants to have a Fedal Final, and the other half not. Of course I hope Federer would win on the same way you want it for Rafa, but the Spaniard is playing his best tennis on hard while Roger is not exactly at his peak level.
          However, the current dynamics can change. Rafa might lose some momentum going to the final, having to face Dimitrov and probably Cilic.

    • Vamos Rafa!
      We all want you 2 win 2day so that you can meet Roger Federer, please don’t disappoint us, we love U.
      Another Fedal baby, let’s make it 5-0 b4 the end of the season.

      Be calm, be focused, be confident, be strong, be brave, Rafa!
      Vamos Rafito.

  1. Rafa is serving well but he couldn’t break Dimi’s serve yet as Dimi is also serving very well.

    Rafa has a chance now, and yes, he breaks and is now up 5-4. Vamos!

    • luckystar, do you do running commentary as a profession? You seem to be good at it!lol

      Rafa, win one more set to set up a juicy SF with “Fed the Goat”. The world has been waiting to see this showdoon since the 2016 AO.

      Be calm, be focused, be confident, be strong, be brave, and be aggressive, Rafa!

      Vamos Rafa!

  2. Rafa has won first set! I catch myself thinking about the number of GS Rafa could have won only if he serve was what it is now!!

    And yes, Grigor is,serving and playing well

  3. I feel Rafa is playing from too far back and Dimi knows it, Dimi is moving Rafa around and then hits his FH and BH DTL when Rafa isn’t/wasn’t expecting that.

    Rafa needs to up his aggression to finish this in straight sets.

  4. Rafa has to move into the court and not playing so far back; he’s allowing Dimi to hit his DTL shots at will!

    Come on Rafa, please move forward and attack!

  5. Rafa not expecting Dimi’s DTL shots at all! Come on Rafa, please move forward and force the issue, don’t just counterpunch!

  6. Rafa is just too defensive, preferring to counterpunch! Not going to work as Dimi is serving very well and hitting very well too!

    Vamos Rafa!

  7. Rafa could’ve wrapped this up in two sets but made those ‘stupid’ errors! Even if Rafa wins this, he really needs to up his level against big serving Cilic!

  8. Rafa’s aggressiveness kept decreasing in set 2 until he reached the level where Dimi was better.

    He needs to improve here in the 3rd.

  9. Ediot 0.0001,

    Stop being obsessive with me, please get a hobby.
    I want R. Nadal to win but Grigor is doing well, he is playing better than R. Harrison & F. Fognini.

    Ed251137 plzzz respect yourself, let’s disagree on predictions or other stuff’s, agree when we can, have a nice conversation but don’t take this path let’s enjoy tennis while we can cos the season will soon be over and after this year I might be gone cos some of u guy’s can’t handle the truth, jokes etc, but if you want me to stay don’t be shy guy’s you can let me know because I like u guys as well, I just don’t like some deceptive, bias etc reasonings.

    Eddy, just by looking at your profile picture I can tell that you are a handsome guy, please don’t act like an ediot.

    G. Dimitrov won a set, I told you guy’s, just read my 1st comment on page 1.
    I still want my Rafito to win, vamos Rafa!

    I want another Fedal.
    #4-0

    Ed, I apologize 4 the ediot OK, let’s have a friendly conversation ok, friends agree, disagree, agree, disagree, up & down, down & up, right & left, left & right but at the end they are sincere & honest(same thing right), faithful but more importantly they tell each other the truth, nothing but the truth even if it hurts, there are many examples but no time.

    Vamos Rafa, please win.

  10. Rafa has the toughest QF opponent here among all the top players; no wonder he has to fight so hard.

    Dimi is getting used to Rafa’s game here having trained with Rafa and played him twice this year. Rafa really must up his aggression and break Dimi’s serve here.

    • Exactly. Rafa was leading in the TB at 4-2 but after the changeover, he just lost concentration and then made all those mistakes.

      The margin is so slim that one or two points would determine winning or losing a set or a match! I’m just glad Rafa wins this match but Rafa needs to up his level vs Cilic; he can’t just stay way back and counterpunch. I hope he beats Cilic in straight sets and gets ready for the final.

      This was an early match for Rafa, after playing two consecutive evening matches so perhaps he needed some adjustments. Dimi OTOH had already played a few afternoon matches prior to this, so he was used to the conditions.

  11. Rafa looked a bit tired towards the end. He played an early match today so hope he can get some rest and be ready for tomorrow.

    He has played quite a lot lately!

    Well done for another amazing victory. He has now won 15 matches in a row!

    • I fear he will be gassed and tired vr. Fed should not get a gassed out Rafa like he got in ao final . Fed is daisy fresh 🙂

      Neither gasquet or potro or triocki will make Fed break a sweat. I think Fed will dispatch potro in straights like he did earlier in IW or Miami and an upset like USO isn’t happening.

      I just knew it instinctively that dimi will create trouble today and was also prepared for an upset.

  12. RaFANS, start the celebrations, now! Rrrrrr…Ruf, Ruf,Ruf…tough,tough,tough…Rafa has won beating Dimi and has blasted into the SF!lol

    Did I hear the firecrackers being fired off in Mallorca?lol

    Vamos Rafa

  13. Olalala, routine 3rd set 6-3 for Rafa.

    onto Semifinals.

    Ricky’s prediction at the start of tournament of having dimi over rafa didn’t happen. No more kind of cinderalla story of saving match points except Rafa so far, isn’t Stanley?

  14. Dimi is becoming a pain in the butt for Rafa. All 3 matches this year have gone the distance .

    I fear Rafa will be gassed now and either cilic or Fed will take him out . How long was this match for ?

  15. I’m always very nervous watching Rafa plays on non-clay surfaces. When I saw Dimi beating Querrey here, I knew Rafa would be in for a tough match!

    Dimi is playing well this season, except for a period of time mid season when he was knocked out early in a few tournaments. I think winning Cincy this year does give him the belief that he’s good enough for big things ahead. He’ll most likely qualify for the WTF this year, good for him.

      • No, only two plus hours. Fortunately he spent very little time in his first two matches here so I think he should be fine physically.

        I think if Rafa plays more aggressively instead of counterpunching, he should beat Cilic. We’ll talk about Fed when Fedal make the final.

  16. Rafa played well but almost lost his serve in the 3rd set.
    All my predictions came through in this article & in the daily page.
    1) Over 21.5 games.
    2) G. Dimitrov to win a set i.e plus 1.5 sets.
    3) R. Nadal to win & over games, i did not pick him to win directly or in straight sets because his odd were low & Rafito hasn’t defeated Grigor in straight sets except on clay twice.

    I want R. Nadal to defeat M. Cilic because i want Federer to have some fun, M. Cilic might cause some problems because he is a good player and is fresh.
    Nadal’s 3 sets win might affect him but i doubt it, he is a professional and had easier opponents in his 1st & 2nd match, Cilic’s matches/opponents weren’t easy maybe except his QF.

    R. Nadal is leading M. Cilic in the H2H 4-1, 4 wins in a roll.
    Cilic won their 1st match and it was in china hmm… Just thinking, don’t get twisted.

    Vamos i don’t know, ok Rafa, i demand a Fedal.
    #4-0

    Talk later.

    Q: if i decide to stop coming to Tenngrand next year, will any of u miss me, especially rafans?
    Please answer, it’s important.

      • Isn’t it obvious, i wanna know how much i am loved by rafans.

        Ed won’t you at least miss me a little bit?
        I know i don’t agree with you guy’s a lot on tennis but that’s because you are wrong & bias sometimes, i understand as fans we are all bias but sometimes u guy’s take it to a different level.

        Which set( 2 or 3) do you think Rafa will defeat M. Cilic in?

        Rafa better be careful because if M. Cilic brings his A game Tenngrand will be on fire.

  17. Rafa played a decent match, nothing spectacular, he could have won in two but made some unnecessary errors in that unfortunate TB. Well, Dimi kept going for his shots, made some great winners and deserved to win a set playing like that! However, Rafa is so strong mentally and bursting with confidence so it was just a matter of Rafa’s will to push a bit harder to get that break of Dimi! And that’s what happened! It’s on Rafa’s racquet and it will be so against Cilic as well!

    Rafa is playing well! We have to give some credit to Dimi for playing good match! But this Rafa is very hard to beat!

    Vamos Rafa!

  18. “It was a very tough match,” said Nadal. “I think both of us, we played at a very high level of tennis. The conditions, of course, have been different today than my two previous matches. I think [it was] a great battle between two players who are playing all the time very focused, very intense points all the time. I think both of us served very well during the whole match, so yeah, it was decided on just a few balls, and anything can happen.”
    When asked about playing Cilic, Nadal said, “He always is very dangerous opponent, and I think this surface, this court helps him. It’s a very fast court. He’s able to go for the shots from the baseline. It will be a tough one. I know that I need to be very focused with my serve again, and I need to play aggressive and don’t let him play from comfortable positions. If not, I will be almost dead because he is going to go for the shots.”

  19. Of last 8 matches in Beijing and Shanghai, Rafa lost serve only against Dimi in Beijing semis. Am I right ? Serve doing really well, but I thhink he will be gassed tomorrow.

  20. M. Cilic is a good player but only once has their match gone to the decider( 3rd set).
    http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1619535

    This match screams an under 22.5 games but M. Cilic is a good server and a good player but this matches with are rarely competitive.
    Rafito has 4 wins in a roll and 3 of those wins have not been competitive.

    Statistics say’s R. Nadal to win in 2 sets & under games.
    Stanley say’s M. Cilic might lose but can do better than this, i haven’t decided, Stats or Stan, Stan is sweeter.

    I am a little busy, will talk later.
    Bye bye!

  21. Its Roger’s path to the final is the one opening not for Rafa. Looks like Delpo will not play tomorrow, so it is gonna be a free pass for Roger to the Final. Huge advantage for Roger if Rafa makes it too to the final.

    Rafa has to squabble a win against another giant tomorrow. Just hoping for a Rafa win so the FEDAL will not disappoint even Rafa is obviously tired already.

    Good Luck Rafa on your match tomorrow.

    Vamos.

      • Nobody wants a gassed Rafa and a fresh Fef for the final! I don’t think that will happen, Rafa doesn’t benefit when he gets walkovers. He likes to play. He is physically fit and healthy and on a winning streak.

        Let’s not make assumptions yet about what will happen in the final. Rafa has to get past Cilic.

      • No one wants Sanju to see a gassed Rafa but he is playing continuously while Roger is taking off in between tournaments. Since Rafa has entered to almost all tournament in sight, the possibility of meeting a well rested Roger is inevitable.

  22. I just watched my recording of Rafa’s match. I cursed a blue streak when he lost that TB! I thought for sure he would close it out in two sets. Missed opportunities. Rafa just let that one go. But all credit to Dimi for playing well and hanging tough.

    I don’t think we need to worry about Rafa being gassed. His first two matches were like practice sessions. At some point he was going to get challenged. Dimi has the game to do it. This may be good preparation for Cilic.

    Rafa is not a china doll. He can take a tough match. I do think he will have to be ready for Cilic on these courts. He did well to hold his serve and not get broken. As well as Dimi played, it was not good enough to beat Rafa.

    Rafa did say something about the conditions playing earlier in this match. I think the more Rafa wins, the better he gets.

    I am looking forward to the semifinal.

    Vamos Rafa!

      • Sanju,

        Rafa has not overplayed! He’s first match was only 54 minutes and his second match was one hour and 2 minutes. Eight minutes longer! Rafa has practice sessions longer than that.

        Rafa is riding the crest of a wave right now. When you are on a winning streak, you feel that you can’t lose.

        We will have to see how the semifinal plays out. Before we worry about Rafa facing Fed, he has to get there!

        Do we really think that Rafa will only have these gimme matches where he barely breaks a sweat? They can’t all be easy ones. He has only had one three set match.

        I think Rafa is so confident now that he is going to hard to stop.

        • Exactly first two matches were really practice ones. And first both have to win their semis . Cilic won’t be easy and so would be Delpo if he is fit for Nadal and Fed. Lets say how it pans out. Irrespective of result, Nadal should be happy and he should cut either Basel or Bercy out of his schedule before WTF.

        • overplayed as in consecutive weeks and its much later in the year unlike the clay season..he has already played 75 matches I think and he is not exactly young..compare that to what fed has played..some 45 matches..

          Only good thing is Colic match may not have very long rallies like the Dimi match..the Dimi matches are always tough for Rafa..

          Even if Delpo takes the court..I dont think he will put up much..consecutive 3 setters and the shadow of wrist injury playing in his mind..I expect Fed to wrap that one in straights..

          • See there is a chance Rafa might lose tomorrow as well. I dont know how cilci is playing . Can anyone tell me that ?

          • To me Cilic is Cilic; he can be erratic, one moment he plays well but the next, out of the blue, he would make some uncharacteristic errors. He’s playing well here no doubt, but imo he’s not playing better than Dimi (Dimi could hit his DTL shots from both wings and changed direction of his shots so well, Rafa wasn’t expecting that and had a hard time countering those attacks). Compared to Dimi, who had more varieties in his game, Cilic looked more one dimensional even though his serves when on, could be a problem for anyone.

            If Rafa can get a good read on Cilic’s serves, I think Rafa will beat Cilic; Rafa is serving very well at these two Asian tournaments (his serve was hardly broken), so I think Rafa has an edge over Cilic.

      • Fed fresh as daisy? Fed didn’t look sharp vs Gasquet, unlike when facing Dolgo. I think if a player could force Fed to hit more rallies, Fed would start making errors. Both Schwarzman and Gasquet were able to play longer points with Fed, unlike Dolgo so Fed had to work hard to beat them.

        I also doubt that Rafa would be tired, he could cut short his practice session should he need more rest. If Delpo is fit enough to play, he won’t be an easy opponent for Fed. If Delpo withdraws, Fed no doubt will be well rested but will be short of match play (he’s mishitting some of his shots in the Gasquet match, not looking sharp).

        • Normally I would never favor Rafa over Fed on a court like this. However, Rafa is just playing better fast-court tennis than I’ve ever seen him play, and he’s so confident. Fed, on the other hand, still seems to be searching for his top form. Therefore, if they both make the final, I think I will have to favor Rafa this time. At 36 years of age, it’s starting to look to me like Fed can maybe only play at his top level anymore when he’s had a lot of rest. Not just a couple weeks here and there. People may need to accept that he is just not meant to sustain a high level for a whole season anymore. And that’s ok! What’s he’s already achieved this season at his age is phenomenal. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a chance for his title- he could very well win it. I just feel like I would have to favor Rafa if they meet in the final.

          • As he long as he keeps skipping clay season, I’ll be happy. That way he can keep being as ready as possible for the grass courts.

          • Yeah, I’m with you Benny. As someone who wants both of Fedal to be successful, I think Fed would be best off trying to peak during the grass season. It would be pretty amazing to see him get his own La Decima, on grass, one day. He has already left his mark as the greatest men’s Wimbledon champion ever. Why not aim to try to pass Martina to be the overall most successful Wimby singles champ?

  23. Is Delpo injured?
    I didn’t watch his match, i heard he fell but i think he might be faking it, fear does that to u.

    I am being serious, is Delpo injured?

    I missed someone here, she longer shows up on time, what’s up?

  24. I agree , Federer should concentrate his effort on the faster surfaces .Id love him to play Wimbledon doubles/mixed.
    Just watched the highlights of Nadal- Dimitrov, as expected Nadal won but it wasn’t easy. The conditions were cooler than usual , which would have helped him.
    But overall, great match and tremendous atmosphere with the local crowd!
    I’m sure we’re all Looking forward to a Fedal final.

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