Shanghai QF preview and prediction: Fritz vs. Goffin

David Goffin is turning back the clock at the Rolex Shanghai Masters.

Prior to this fortnight, Goffin had not reached the quarterfinals of a Masters 1000 event since Monte-Carlo in 2021, had not even advanced to a fourth round at this level since Madrid in 2022, and had lost in qualifying at three straight Masters 1000 tournaments. Earlier this season, the 33-year-old plunged as low as No. 134 in the rankings.

Suddenly, though, Goffin is in resurgent form. The Belgian is through to the last eight in Shanghai and will climb to at least No. 53 in the next rankings. He booked his quarterfinal spot by beating James Duckworth, Lorenzo Musetti, Marcos Giron, and Alexander Zverev.

“I wanted to show my daughter that I can be a good tennis player,” Goffin said after upsetting Zverev 6-4, 7-5 on Wednesday. “We tried to find a few more years to show her that I can still play tennis, and that’s the case for the moment. Even if she doesn’t realize yet, hopefully she will come and watch a little bit.

“Sometimes you have doubts about your fitness and your head. If you’re not 100 percent there, mentally, it’s tough to compete with those guys–the level is so high. I have put a lot of hard work in (over) the past few months and there is no [surprise] the tennis came back. I am really happy to be back again in the quarterfinals of an ATP Masters 1000.”

Up next for Goffin on Friday is a third meeting with Fritz–and first since 2021. They have split their two previous contests; Goffin got the job done 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 at the 2019 Cincinnati Masters before Fritz survived a 6-1, 5-7, 7-6(9) thriller two years later in Doha.

A stellar 2024 campaign has Fritz well on his way to Turin for a second appearance at the Nitto ATP Finals. The seventh-ranked American is 48-19 this season, which has him at No. 5 in the race. He finished runner-up at the U.S. Open and has maintained his outstanding form with Shanghai victories over Terence Atmane, Yosuke Watanuki, and Holger Rune. Fritz has not dropped a single set and he was especially impressive during a 6-1, 6-2 beatdown of Rune on Wednesday.

Goffin is playing well, but at the same time Zverev has been less than 100 percent in recent weeks and was leaving balls short for the former world No. 7 to punish. Fritz won’t make that mistake; he will have Goffin on defense for most if not all of the match.

Pick: Fritz in 2