Shanghai R3 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Goffin, Zverev vs. Rublev

Roger Federer will try to continue his dominance of David Goffin when the familiar foes take the court against each other again on Thursday in Shanghai. Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.

(13) David Goffin vs. (2) Roger Federer

Goffin ended a six-match losing streak against Federer at the 2017 Nitto ATP Finals, but it has been back to the norm ever since for the Belgian. Heading into their 11th career meeting at the Rolex Shanghai Masters on Thursday, Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 9-1 and has lost only five total games in their last four sets. They most recently faced each other in round four of this summer’s U.S. Open, where the 38-year-old Swiss cruised 6-2, 6-2, 6-0.

Following a pair of Laver Cup wins for Team Europe, Federer opened in Shanghai on Tuesday with a 6-2, 7-6(5) victory over Albert Ramos-Vinolas. He is now 22-5 lifetime at this tournament with titles in 2014 and 2017. Goffin is making a late push for a return trip to the year-end championship with a runner-up performance in Cincinnati, his fourth-round finish in New York, and a semifinal result last week in Tokyo. The world No. 14 is through to the Shanghai third round thanks to routine defeats of Richard Gasquet and Mikhail Kukushkin. Although Goffin is in fine form, Federer’s recent dominance of this matchup is impossible to overlook.

Pick: Federer in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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(5) Alexander Zverev vs. Andrey Rublev

Contrary to what their two previous encounters suggest, Zverev vs. Rublev should probably be the best match of the entire third-round lineup. Zverev coasted 6-1, 6-3 at the 2016 Monte-Carlo Masters and 6-2, 6-3 one year later in Beijing, but Rublev is playing the best tennis of his life right now. The 33rd-ranked Russian finished runner-up in Hamburg, reached the Cincinnati quarterfinals as a qualifier, advanced to the Winston-Salem quarters, made a fourth-round run at Flushing Meadows, and added another quarterfinal result in St. Petersburg before succumbing to an on-fire Daniil Medvedev. So far this week Rublev has ousted Borna Coric and Tokyo finalist John Millman in straight sets.

Zverev’s 2019 campaign has underwhelmed by his standards, but he has done enough to put himself in current position to return to London for a Nitto ATP Finals title defense. The sixth-ranked German won the deciding match of the Laver Cup and then advanced to the Beijing semifinals (lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas). Zverev started his week in Shanghai with a 7-6(13), 7-6(3) defeat of Jeremy Chardy in which he served at 73 percent and double-faulted only three times in 12 service games plus two tiebreakers. He has double-faulted only seven times in his last four matches combined. If the No. 5 seed can continue to limit such mistakes, he should have a slight edge over Rublev and improve to 3-0 in their head-to-head series.

Pick: Zverev in 3

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