Novak Djokovic’s bid to regain the No. 1 ranking in the world got a boost when Juan Martin Del Potro upset Rafael Nadal on Saturday. One day later, Djokovic will attempt to win back-to-back titles at this event–but Del Potro stands in his way.
Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro will be facing each other for the 13th time in their careers when they battle for the Shanghai Rolex Masters title on Sunday afternoon.
Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 9-3, including 6-2 on hard courts. Although it is skewed rather heavily in the Serb’s favor, this matchup often produces some of the most entertaining tennis on tour. The second set of Djokovic’s 6-2, 7-6(3), 6-4 U.S. Open victory in 2012 was arguably the best of the year. His 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-7(6), 6-3 Wimbledon semifinal triumph over Del Potro this summer was unquestionably one of the most memorable matches of 2013.
They have squared off on two other occasions this season, both prior to their All-England Club showdown. Djokovic prevailed 6-3, 7-6(4) in the Dubai semifinals before Del Potro advanced to the Indian Wells title match with a 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 upset.
The defending champion in Shanghai, Djokovic has always been a force during the Asian swing and this time around is no different. He beat Rafael Nadal in last week’s Beijing final and there are no signs of the world No. 2 slowing down. Djokovic earned his place in the championship match with scalps of Marcel Granollers, Fabio Fognini, Gael Monfils, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga–dropping only one set to Monfils in the process.
Del Potro got a third-round withdrawal from Tommy Haas, but to say his spot in the title match is well-deserved would be an understatement. After taking care of Philipp Kohlschreiber and Nicolas Almagro, the fifth-ranked Argentine put on an incredible display to hammer Nadal 6-2, 6-4 on Saturday. Like Djokovic, Del Potro is also coming off a title last week. He hoisted the Tokyo winner’s trophy to improve his 2013 record to 43-13. Djokovic, meanwhile, is 61-9 for the year.
Anything close to the level Del Potro showcased against Nadal will be enough to at least snag a set if not win the whole match. However, that would invoke memories of David Nalbandian’s run to the 2007 Madrid title; it’s not something you see every day. Djokovic will play closer to the baseline than Nadal did and his defense combined with his defense-to-offense transition prowess should eventually break down the underdog.
Pick: Djokovic in 3
[polldaddy poll=7471196]
Delpo in 3
Heart wants Delpo but mind says Djoko in 3
Delpo in 3
A few more dodgy line calls like yesterday and today and Djokovic will blow a gasket. i’m also having a bet with myself he will retire if he loses the lst set and gets broken early in the 2nd.
care to make a bet with someone other than yourself???
I was just thinking out loud 🙂
whenever rafa pushed delpo,he was able to extract errors…djokovic is going to be like a wall tomorrow,,no question about it.. He’ll make delpo hit many winning shots to win a single rally…
Delpo served very well today and he needs his serve at least as good against djokovic…
Djo shud normally be considered a clear favourite in their matches but i think if delpo starts the match playing his crazy tennis,he will put djokovic in a difficult situation just like monfills did..
i am going for the upset win : delpo in 3
the key shot for delpo: backhand DTL !
He usually goes CC too much…but to have success against djo,he needs the DTL one,otherwise he will be bullied…the same shot allowed him to get back into the 3rd set of indian wells and then get the win….it also did plenty of damage in their wimbledon match when he used it well….
It’s a must win shot for delpo in my view…he cannot win with his usual pattern of going CC 90 paercent of the times
Ha,ha, the majority of the vote so far is for Delpo in three! A bit of wishful thinking, I guess…. But I would be really happy for the Ent. When he said after the final in IW to the crowd: “Thank you for cheering a bit for me, too.” my heart broke a bit, since he really could’ve won that final.
not wishful thinking for me. If Delpo can reproduce the same level of tennis and implement the backhand DTL well, he will have his chances. Good thing for delpo is that djo won’t be able to outlast him physically as this one is a best of 3 set match.
Anything less than delpo’s best though would lead to one and only outcome : a win for djokovic, even in 2 sets.
Of course Delpo has a chance. In the above mentioned IW tourney he beat Novak. And Shanghai plays a lot faster than IW, which should be a benefit for the powerful Delpo. But Novak is a better competitor, who, like Rafa, can win a lot of matches without playing his best. That’s, why I’m surprised, that so far a majority here thinks, Delpo will win in three.
vamosrafa,
I agree with your thoughts on the final. It took Delpo’s best to beat Rafa and he will have to do it again if he is to beat Djoker.
I woke up to see that Rafa lost in the semis. I did have my doubts about that match, but didn’t want to say anything for fear of rumpling some feathers. I knew that Delpo was playing very well and this court favored his game. Unfortunately, Rafa couldn’t get it done.
So the race for #1 is still ongoing. I just think that Djoker is so focused and intent on getting back the #1 ranking that he’s not going to lose. But I would love to see Delpo win, there is no question about that.
I am thinking this will go three sets.
There was a great post in the rankings thread on vb. Forum member jen quoted a post from a Federer Fan Forum that broke down the race for #1 between Rafa and Djoker.
The bottom line from all of the computations was this –
For Rafa to be year end #1, he has to reach the finals at Basel, semis at Paris and win two matches at WTF. Someone else did the math and said that he will come out short 31 points still. This scenario is assuming that Djoker wins Shanghai, wins Paris Bercy and the WTF.
There was also some discussion about whether Djoker will take a wildcard and play the 500 tournament in Valencia.
I hope that Rafa will have enough left to do what he has to do to be #1 at year end.
I thought that Djoker was very tightly wound in that quarterfinal match with Monfils. He seemed to really be feeling the pressure in the third set. I expect him to come out and play well enough to get the win in the finals. It’s up to Delpo to bring his best game again to win. It’s not easy to take out Rafa and Djoker. But Delpo did beat Djoker and Murray in I/W earlier this year.
littlefoot,
Most people here want Delpo to win for obvious reasons.
Ha, ha NNY, I also want Delpo to win for very obvious reasons, but also, because I really like him and he deserves a Masters title. But it won’t happen, just because we want it. I still think, Novak is more likely to win tomorrow.
As to the points calculations, you mentioned: If Rafa makes the final in Basel, the semis in Paris and wins two matches in London (an entirely realistic, even positive scenario), Novak has to play AND win Basel as well as the rest. Otherwise it won’t be enough for him.
littlefoot,
LOL! So you understand where I was coming from! I do agree with you that Djoker is most likely going to win, but there is a possibility that Delpo could pull it off. As I said, he will have to bring his best yet one more time.
Someone on vb was trying to help us all get a clearer picture of what was needed for Rafa to be #1 at year end. It can drive a person crazy trying to figure it out. Yes, the calculations were predicated on Djoker winning Shanghai, Paris and WTF. I don’t think that’s going to happen. So Rafa may not have to do all the things that were cited.
I agree that Novak would be really focused on winning this . Yup, as I said, he will make delpo hit multiple winning shots to win a single point !
I just think delpo would be able to produce his best tomorrow…let us see..it will be a tight match..
THanks for the possibilities on the YE no.1 NNY 🙂
vamosrafa,
It is the first thing I thought about after I realized that Rafa lost to Delpo. As I said above, someone still believes that with that scenario, Rafa could come up 31 points short. So there is still some confusion. But Djoker must run the table, winning Shanghai, Paris and WTF.
Djoker seems to feel that getting the #1 ranking back is almost his due. He almost came unglued in the quarterfinal match with Monfils.
I believe that it is doable for Rafa to be #1 at year end. I hope that he has enough left to do what has to be done.
Nowhere else to put this:
© Rebecca Patrick
Federer and Annacone End |Coaching Relationship
12.10.2013 | Off Court
“After a terrific 3 ½ years working together, Paul and I have decided to move on to the next chapter in our professional lives. When we started together we had a vision of a 3 year plan to win another Grand Slam title and get back to the number #1 ranking. Along with many other goals and great memories, these 2 main goals were achieved. After numerous conversations culminating at the end of our most recent training block, we felt like this was the best time and path for both of us. Paul remains a dear friend, and we both look forward to continuing our friendship. I want to thank Paul for his help and the value he has added to me and my team.”
“we felt like this was the best time.” LOL.
thanks for posting.
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”
@nadline, my question is, what took Fed so long?
Actually, I think this a very, very astute recommendation:
RT @ggreenwald: “@jon_wertheim He should hire @martina: for expertise on late-stage career success, strategy evolution and fitness http://www.tennisnow.com/News/Flashback-1994-Wimbledon-Final-Martinez-vs-Navrati.aspx …
Fed should hire Martina Navratilova…………..
Is this a harbinger of what to expect next?
Now it Mats Wilander’s chance; he’s always full of advice of what Roger should do. Actually his biggest advice to Federer is that he needs more b**&*.
Ricky, can you have a News thread so that we don’t go off topic on tournament threads?
Really don’t know how this will pan out. Nole will need to take time away from JMDP, which Rafa couldn’t seem to do, and will need to serve very well to get some free points.
JMDP needs to be firing on all cylinders, like he was yesterday.
Nole in 3! Come on!
NNY and everyone ..it is very clear the Maths..no confusion. Rafa will need 945 points to seal the No 1 ranking assumin Novak wins Shanghai, ATP 500, Paris, WTF. Anywhere Novak tumbles subtract those points from 945.
The final at Basel, semis at Bercy and 2 RR matches will give him 360 Bercy + 400 WTF + 150 (300 Basel -150(Vina Del Mar) = 910..so that is 35 points short Yes. But rem Novak has to win 4 on a trot and not even lose a RR in WTF for it to happen
Sanju,
It’s funny that you brought it up because I happened to be reading on tennis warehouse today and there was this exact discussion about whether Djoker can take back the #1 ranking and what he and Rafa need to do for either to end the year as #1.
I believe that someone said Rafa needs 400 points to keep the #1 ranking. I don’t remember how they arrived at that number. I believe that the assumption was still that Djoker has to win Shanghai, Paris Bercy and WTF. Run the table. So I have no idea how they came up with that number.
They may not have factored in the points from Basel minus the points from Vina Del Mar. As I said initially, someone on vb came up with Rafa being 31 points short with the scenario of him getting to the finals of Basel, semis of Paris Bercy and winning two matches at WTF. That was also taking into account that Djoker wins Shanghai, Paris Bercy and WTF.
I don’t think Djoker will win all those tournaments. So Rafa may not have to get to the finals at Basel, semis at Paris Bercy and two matches at WTF.
We will get more info now with the result from the Shanghai final. If Delpo wins, then things have already changed significantly.
I appreciate the way you broke it down. It makes it much easier to understand. 🙂
Yikes! Fed has gone hashtag-crazy:
https://twitter.com/rogerfederer/status/389301574276616192/photo/1
RT @alex_willis: “RT @TrudelSteph: Just realized that Nicolas Mahut, Tommy Robredo & Ernests Gulbis have more titles (2) this year than Roger Federer (1).”
#BlameAnnacone
Vamos Delpo!!
Sorely tempted to mute Koenig and his side-kick…………
Looks like Delpo left his adrenalin at home today, or used it all up against Rafa.
^^^suspected as much………yesterday he didn’t hit a single DF, today he already has one, his FH is falling short and leaking errors…………
I don’t believe this! Delpo serves like crap and gets broken in his very first game. He looks like a totally different player. Maybe he used it all up to beat Rafa.
I am in Dubai atm so I’m listening to the commentary in Arabic atm on Al Jazeera. I could go to another channel with English commentary but I don’t think I’ll bother. RK and Jason Goodall just do my head in.
Nole has come to play and Delpo is not even close to wht he was yest
Really gotta hand it to Nole..he is so strong off both wings
This is what gets me with these people. They see Rafa across the net and they salivate, play out of their skins. Today, Delpo’s spraying errors like confetti………
Frustrated already seeing Delpo..he lost his serve..couldn’t convet 2 BPs either
Sanju,
Yes, Djoker came out strong. It appears that Delpo had one great match in him to take out Rafa and now doesn’t have much left.
NNY in that case he can stay happy being No 4 or 5..cant expect to go further
And he is simply not using his DTL BH at all..all the time going CC to Noles BH
Sanju,
Yes! Well said! If Delpo can’t keep it up consistently, then he will stay at #4 or #5. I can’t get over how these players can come up with their best against Rafa and then it’s all downhill after that.
Rafa said that Delpo serving with 80% of first serves in was unbelievable. But he will not be able to duplicate that in this match.
Rafa dropping his serve in the first game just gave Delpo the adrenalin he needed to swing freely and take Rafa out.
It’s so annoying how the players bring their best amour against Rafa and fold against other players.
True that..wonder why is it so though
Nole is a huge scalp to take out too
Far from my thought Djoko might retire, it’s more likely it will be Delpo.
I am incandescent………
Cant believe this is the same player from yesterday.
I’d rather have had to watched Djoko getting the better of Rafa than this.
This is what I said on another thread yesterday:
“Don’t count on Delpo following up today with a win tomorrow. The normal thing will be for him to have an emotional let down. Remember, he was playing to secure WTF 2013 today. Of course tomorrow he will be playing for his maiden Masters but he has another shot at that in Paris this year.”
But not even I saw a bakery product coming………..
I wonder if it’s just about having to play his best against Rafa, or if there is some emotional letdown in qualifying for the WTF. But I would think that winning his first Masters title would be motivation enough.
This is really ugly stuff.
Delpo decided he wanted a baguette for lunch rather than a bagel.
RT @SI_BTBaseline: “What a difference a day makes.”
Really got to admire Djokos attitde..he fell 9 times till USO..lost key GS matches, Masters, went like titleless for 5 months and he comes back determined to win not letting ll those losses affect him. He seems determined to fight for No 1 and gotta love that attitude howmuchever it may be a thorn in the flesh for Rafa.
Darcy went all out to beat Rafa at Wimby…………..lost in the next match and is now out for six months. Here’s Delpo doing his best impression of a club tennis player………
Djokovic has not allowed del potro to settle down. djo’s backhand DTL has decided the outcome of almost every good rally. Delpo is not been given any time to set up for his forehand. Djokovic’s forehand continues to be on fire since beijing.
Del potro will make a better match out of this though. He was hitting much better when down 0-5…going for more
Clearly Delpo is not ready to win his first Masters shield……………….
Surprising to see Delpo play so badly. Even his FH looks off. And Nole is having a gr8 feel on the ball. Not good for Delpo!
Dare we hope for some real tennis in this set?
We saw how poor serving did Rafa in yesterday, well, Delpo’s 1st set, 1serve % was 56%. Yesterday it was over 80%………………….
Well Delpo has nowhere to go but up.
Delpo looks like he’s wearing lead for shoes today……….
Why is he giving Djoko all those CC returns to slaughter?
Djokovic’s backhand down the line is on fire today!
thankfully it was way off in US Open final..he kept missing it
delpo’s 1st serve % -50 % today….. it was 80% against rafa in the match and 84% in set 1… critical to improve it here as he has won only 31% (5/16) on 2nd serves
He’s trying to pump himself up. Has anyone ever seen him jog back to the baseline before?
LOL! 🙂
Don’t think I have seen a single backhand DTL from del potro.
WTH is wrong with djokovic’s balance in this game? this is very bizarre
He got dizzy with excitement after creaming Delpo in the 1st set 🙂
Now what the heck is Djokovic doing with those silly moves?
Sorry folks but Delpo’s performance has really wound me up……….
yup, djokovic’s backhand DTL has found its way back…now delpo HAS to capitalize.
Now can Delpo H.O.L.D. so we see a real ding-dong 3rd set…………..
Delpo seems to have found his serve, non too soon too…………..
four 1st serves in a row
The sleeping giant has woken up at last……….
Just shows how important to a player’s overall game the serve is:
Novak 78–>27% first serves 1st to 2nd set
Lets hope this goes to a 3rd and like a 7 5 3rd set or 7-6..lol with Delpo winning
Any chance someone could ram a couple of tennis balls down the throats of Koenig and KnowItAll
Here we go………………Delpo is folding
That was courageous play by Delpo.
Delpo has finally realized that he needs an M1000 title.
Terrific terrific monster hold from Delpo..what a way to save 3 BPs..I hope this melts own Djokovic just like Rafa saving 3 BPs in 3rd set of USO at 4 all did 🙂
He must hold his serve now or the match will slip away from him.
Now let’s see what Delpo’s really made of…………
How badly does he want his maiden Masters?
Is he a real top 4 contender?
Total reversal in both Djoko and Delpo serve stats.
What’s with Novak and these Neo Matrix impressions?
@ed, hahahahha, you are really having it against koenig and Know-all (LOL)
I mean, they are meant to be commentating on a match – either they are gossiping inanely between themselves or they are trying to outdo each other with their coaching lessons.
hahaha I enjoy the reaction koenig and know-all get out of you lol
since the inception of set 2 , delpo’s level has gradually risen while novak’s has gradually fallen until they have converged. It’s all like a new match now in set 3
So many reasons why I want Delpo to win, not least is that it throws him in the mix, someone else to challenge Novak apart from Rafa with Muzza recuperating…………
for delpo, it is all about keeping his 1st serve % high… even in set 2 he was 4/9 on 2nd serves, i.e 44%…. so only a high 1st serve % is the solution..
I think so far Ricky’s prediction is well on track to hit the target…
It is either CC or in the middle of the court, delpo is NOT going DTL…oh my dramatic point…duece
how big was this hold?
Huge point gone..he could have broken der..dumped routine FH into the net
and delpo is serving behind..he will be the one under pressure always
That game was pivotal. Djoko for the title
GSM, Djokovic
best forehand of the day
Huge hold from BP down by both Djoko and Delpo..Delpos FH down the line was monstrous
Delpo showed his mettle in those 2 games………..
wow, hats off to the giant…MING BOGGLING, koenig called it ! hahha did you hear that Ed? lol
what do you guys think now? delpo steadied the ship right there..
makes a change from Jaw Dropping.
hahaha exactly
Still in the balance
But in my heart of hearts I think the match is Djokovic’s
Costly miss from Delpo
Still going with a Djoker win, but at least Delpo has acquitted himself well….
Delpo serving from behind will always mean huge pressure
Too much pressure……………sadly
But at least he held on the crucial 7th game
55-45 Adv to Nole I guess…but it could go to either side
Im wondering if everyone is anti jinxing here saying match is Djokos as all want Delpo to win..lol
Sanju: Deucy is watching and she is rooting for Djoko 😉
@Sanju, Delpo’s starting to get tight, Djoker holding serve easier..
u 4got me….;)
well, I remember almost everyone saying the same in the semis of IW until delpo won it…so its still on…
serving at 4-5 would be hard though….and again at 5-5 most prob
Euww, what a nasty chest Djoker has…………
Squeeky bum time…..
3 points away Djoko
2 points
got casual there…heavily sliced defensive shot from nole though
match point
Shirt ripping time coming up
!!!!!!! DUECE !!!!!!!!
Delpo says non…..
2 match points saved.
what the hell is djokovic doing? utterly disgraceful….. COME ON DELPO… IMPRESSIVE
Mind boggling and jaw dropping……………………..to save those match points.
7-6 to the big man
^^^Hahaha! turn-coat…..
Stay of execution…………
But he has to do it all over again now – that is a ‘big ask’
@tj600, good to see you…u shud hang around here more often
The ATP should issue glasses to the Chinese linesmen.
Breaker to decide………
Cant believe this is going to end with a tie-breaker
so we finally have it ! can delpo give novak the taste of his own medicine by defeating him after saving match points? poor andy had five last year
first big backhand DTL of the match, and what a time to hit it…tie breaker
he hit a few before that one.
GSM
Cockyvic is arrogant or what?
Vamos Delpo.
Novak’s net play has been exceptional all week
Djokovic has been outstanding at the net today……….
MP#3
poor miss
GSM Djokovic…………Delpo ran out of steam. He will not be a factor in Basel……..
week off before Basel. Delpo will have a great chance to win the title there.
What did Djokovic do that was disgraceful? Anyway, good win for Novak.
probably the crowd thing
Cockyvic wins. Shame. So Delpo is still Masterless.
We should club together to have FDTL tattooed on Delpo’s forehead.
.
poor delpo, when is he going to win a masters 1000 🙁
Djo seems to be on a mission. he has a look in his eye now. Great performance. DTL BH was on fire. THankfully it came after the slam season 🙂
RT @christophclarey: “4 of last 5 matches between Djokovic & Del Potro have gone distance. Del Potro has won just one: Indian Wells semis 2013”
RT @pmouratoglou: “#Novak is obviously playing with much less pressure since he lost his No1 ranking. This race with #Rafa looked heavy for him to handle”
Everyone likes to be the Hunter not hunted..lol
Terrific match. Nole was absolutely superb in the first set, then wonderful come back from JMDP.
Nole! Nole! Nole!
yep, one of the best of the year outside of Grand Slams
Like Nole needed ANOTHER Rolex watch
Lol u would not say that if it were Rafa winning…;)
Delpo says he is proud of Novak…………lol
Brave speech from Delpo. Oh here comes Nole with a wide smirk on his face.
So let’s recap the Asian swing, shall we?:
Rafa wrestled the #1 ranking from Djokovic;
By virtue of a finalist (Beijing) and semi (Shanghai) showing, Rafa is now 400 points ahead of Novak in the rankings and 2,000 points ahead in the Race.
Not a bad return…………
On to Basel, Vamos!
Any news if Novak is playing Basel?
Poor Fed if Rafa Novak Stan Delpo all play Basel..lol
Great match!
Djoko got his act together when he needed it the most. Congrats Nole!
Congrats Delpo for the fight you put up showing your mettle once again. You once again showed that if you are still not one of the top guys, you are definitely above the rest of the pack. Please stay healthy. That will help you to perform at your best as well as gain some consistency and momentum.
Good comment from abhirf: it took him a while to climb back after the wrist surgery and then he was beset by more injuries and various illnesses resulting in losing the momentum to string successes together. I hope this is not the pattern for him in the future.
Well, what can I say? Feel gutted for the big man 🙁 . But Novak showed his excellent fighting spirit. Congratulations!
My gut tells me, it will get really difficult for Rafa now, to hold on to the No 1 spot. If Novak really wants it back, he will play Basel/Valencia. Wonder, if Rafa has enough left in the tank…. The last month of the tennis year will be really interesting.
There’s even the possibility, that Novak get back his No 1 spot before London, since he has hardly any points to defend until the WTF. Then we will have the big showdown in the O2 Arena.
945 points is what Rafa needs to add now in 3 tourneys and Novak needs to win all 3 without even losing a RR in WTF..
So your gut says Rafa cannot add 945 / 3000 points up for grabs but Novak can pocket all 3000?
You are even more pessimistic than me littlefoot. I have seldom seen you show any faith in Rafa at all..always looking at the bleakest picture for him
Again reiterate most Rafa fans have far too much confidence and faith in his opponents than Rafa himself
No Sanju, you are wrong there. I just started to comment here regularly in Rafa’s arguably weakest part of the season, lol! I’m in aw, of what Rafa has done this year. So, it wouldn’t be surprising at all, if he has physically and emotionally too little left in the tank, and I alluded to a worst case scenario. At the moment, Rafa is still in the driver’s seat in the race, and the Djoker must be, at least physically, equally exhausted. And you know, what? I f Rafa doesn’t make it, the cream on top of his season would be missing, but it wouldn’t devalue his stellar comeback season at all. That he even made it back to No 1 is awsome, considering, that he didn’t even play AO.
If Novak is that desperate to get it back temporarily, yes he will play Basel/Valencia. Which means he will be showing up 4 weeks on the trot, winning Basel/Valencia, Paris and WTF, and then show up for DC where Troicki is not there and Janko is well…….Janko. Good luck to him but it all rather seems pointless because Rafa is also going to pick up points in those tournaments.
I am relaxed, Rafa will do it………………..
Fed has a fight on his hands……to get back into Top 4 contention. This will be the Top 4 in 2014:
1. Rafa (13 Slams)
2. Novak (6)
3. Muzza (2)
4. Delpo (1)
That is, if Andy gets healthy again and Delpo stays healthy…
I have more faith in Muzza getting healthy again than Delpo staying healthy tbh. The way he rips that FH does not bode well for his wrist………….
Augusta..this is for you. It says Race is not right as its counts everything whereas we should actually look at curret ranking points and in that Vina Del Mar is not counted and it will add on 28 Oct 2014 if Rafa pockets less in Basel
http://www.rogerfedererfans.com/forum/topic/1625-rafa-nadal-will-secure-2013-year-end-no1-ranking-if-he-wins-shanghai-masters/
Congrats to Novak, he is a big fighter… often. The big question for him in 2014 is whether he will be willing to seriously evolve his game or whether he will rely on his 3 year old strength to be enough…. and whether Rafa can remain healthy. If that sounds like a bit of sour grapes, why not, I really want Delpo to get his first (and some pressure off Rafa as a present).
Has Delpo had any issues we know about with his wrist since the surgery? Of course even if there are none we know of you are right that putting a lot of pressure on a wrist that had surgery could add up… alas.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves with this Djoko Basel/Valencia thing, let’s wait for the smoke signals from the Djoker camp in the next 7 days………
Agreed, we don’t even know Djoker’s plans. He must be pretty exhausted, too….
@sanju, I wasn’t implying at all, that Rafa can’t get the necessary points in the last three tourneys. I was just calculating, that, IF Novak plays Basel/Valencia and does better there and in Paris than Rafa, he might get back the No 1 ranking temporarily before London, but Rafa would still be leading the race.
I know littlefoot..I think I am a bit frustrated that Rafa did not seal the YE No 1 this week and I am finding a reason to feel irritated with every non positive statement..Apologies!!
@sanju, apologies accepted 🙂 I’m equally frustrated, since I think, Rafa really has set his heart on the year end No 1 spot. He has said many times, that only year end No 1 really counts for him.
But I guess, we should just lay back and enjoy the race. Interesting times ahead tenniswise…
Did calcs again now going by ranking points instead of Race
Rafa at 11160 now, add 360 from Shanghai, 150 from Chile..he will have minimum 11670 on Oct 28.
Novak has 11120 including Shanghai win. He can add 990 in Basel and 500 from Basel/Valencia..so the max he can go to is 12610
So all Rafa needs is 12610 – 11670 = 950 points from Bery, WTF and > seis in Basel(till smis 150 is counted)
> semis in Basel because 150 from Vina Del Mar is counted already ..only > 150 earned in Basel will matter which means Rafa has to reach final or win title in Basel
Meant 990in Bercy instead of Basel for Nole. Typo
weird
Correction to my 11:39am post.
The Race to London differential between Rafa and Novak as at today is 2,060 not 2,000.
#Djokovic loses No. 1 but still No. 1 in Asia-Pacific. His record in Australia & Asia last 3 years is 54-1. Only loss: Dubai semi 2012
Huge domination by Djoko in APAC.
So what is especially significant about that?
congratulations to me!
who’d he lose to in Dubai?
Murray he lost to in 2012
rafaisthebest – Rafa still leads by 2,000? How is that even close?
It looks a wide margin Ricky but if you take into account the fact that Novak is way better indoors than Rafa and therefore is more likely to pick up a larger share of the remaining points, then it could become close. We could even end up having the scenario you mused about earlier: Rafa and Nole locked in a decider at WTF.
but not in the final.
Due to the RR system, they could meet in the semis, if one finishes first and the other second in his group. And such a semi could well decide over No 1 and No 2.
well said
It was 3000 before Beijing..see Ricky how quickly it caame down to 2000?
Thats what we are saying..this leg is Rafas weakest
In hindsight the MC loss was indeed costly..Rafa would have nearly wrapped No 1, had record of 6 Masters, won claay slam too.
I am still holding out hope my boy will wrap this thang up before WTF! All he has to do is reach the finals at Basel and Paris………that’s all.
That would be great, but unfortunately not quite enough, RITB, since Vina del Mar points will get subtracted from Basel. He can gain 350 points max. in Basel. So, if Rafa wins Basel and reaches the final in Paris, he will have clinched it before WTF.
Of course, we are still assuming in this scenario, that Novak takes a wildcard AND wins Paris and a 500 tourney.
No RITB he needs to win Basel and reach finals of Bercy to lock it..assuming Novak wins an ATP 500 and wins Bercy. Its not easy, he has never played well in Bercy
It could get very tight actually and last sthing we want is every match of WTF being tension filled, its his weakest surface.
Nole has to do us a favour by not playing an ATP 500 or not winning Bercy 🙂
Yes the WTF final will not decide it but the semis well could 🙂
What is known is Rafa n novak will be on opp sides of RR but rest 6 will get drawn randomly..hope Ferrer Berdy aare in Rafas section and Fed, Delpo on other side 🙂
I see, we are on the same page again, Sanju 🙂 .
Ricky, you see, it could get awfully close,even if a 2060 points lead looks comfortable on paper. Winning Basel AND reaching the final in Paris isn’t easy at all for Rafa. He has never even been in the Bercy final.
I don’t think Novak will play Basel or Valencia. Just does not make sense, for the long run, to do so. Makes more sense for him to focus on pressurizing Rafa during the clay season next year.
Let’s hope Delpo is on Ferru’s side of the draw in Basel for a start……….
Yeah Fed would be easier than Delpo but why is Ferru playing Basel? Why is he not playing Valencia? Doesnt he play der usually?
On the hp of the Valencia tourney, it says, that David is playing there…
Yeah he better not play Basel..lol..he is a liability since long now after FO.
If Novak plays Basel, hope Fed, Delpo, Novak all on 1 side 🙂
Sorry, my bad, Ferru’s in Valencia, not Basel. Since Muzza is not playing and we assume neither is Novak, Delpo will be the second seed in Basel which is great so Rafa can only meet him in the final.
It’s useless to speculate about what’s going on in Novak’s head right now. We will know in a few days, if he takes a wc for a 500 tourney. But if he does, we will know, that he intends to fight for this No 1 spot till the very end. The clay season is a long way off and isn’t really affected by what he is doing in the indoor season. But should he really leapfrog Rafa last minute, he would strike a psychological blow before the AO.
littlefoot,
I agree about it being useless to speculate about whether Djoker plays a 500 tournament or not. The scenarios and points are getting more complicated because people are bringing up hypotheticals in which Djoker will decide to play a 500 and Basel. We don’t know this for a fact.
Djoker did say that he intends to fight for the #1 ranking. I think losing it did take some pressure off him, because he is playing so much better now. This is also a good time of the calendar year for him. He will feel even more confident now with back-to-back wins at Beijing and Shanghai and also defending 1500 points. That was key for him to even have a chance to get back to #1.
I am not sure about the optimism regarding Basel and Bercy for Rafa. He has never done well at Bercy. I don’t know if he has ever played at Basel. Now it’s all indoor hard courts. He certainly will have a shot to get to the final at Basel. But winning it? Will he have to play Delpo again or will Delpo be too tired.
Totally agree with you Tiggy:
“………..Djokovic relies on his first serve like everyone else—whatever changes we’ve seen on the men’s tour in the last couple of decades, the serve remains the sport’s most important shot. ”
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2013/10/show-stopper-shanghai/49444/#.UlrbgBBRCDc
I just wanted to say that I believe Rafa will do what is necessary to keep the #1 ranking. Even though this is not normally the strongest part of the tennis year for him, as long as he is healthy he should do well enough to be year end #1.
Fortunately for Rafa, he doesn’t have to actually win the next few tournaments to keep the #1 ranking. If he can go deep in these tournaments, then he will get the job done. Now if he should win a title, that would be the icing on the cake.
i don’t think people are aware of just how monumental of a collapse by Rafa and run by Djokovic for Djokovic to finish No. 1.
this one’s over, folks
Ricky,
Thank you for that! Saves a lot of trouble trying to compute the points and who has to win what and when and how!
here to help.
I don’t think, it’s a question of a monumental collapse on Rafa’s side. That’s not necessary for giving Novak a theoretical chance. It’s more a question of Novak being able to run the table for the rest of the year. It would be a herculean effort. Normally I’d say, no way, but since some of the competition has fallen along the wayside with Andy being out and Roger being iffy, I don’t think, it’s impossible. The big question is, if Nole himself feels up to it. My thinking is, that he will only apply for a wild card, if he believes he has a decent chance to pull it off. Otherwise it would make no sense at all to do so, and would only diminish Serbia’s DC chances.
NNY, defending points has nothing to do with year end ranking.
this is true. I don’t think NNY was confusing it, but in general i HATE it when people confuse defending points with year-end ranking. Has absolutely NO bearing on it whatsoever and so many people think it does.
holdserve,
Why do you keep saying that? What is your point?
Rafa doesn’t have to defend any points whatsoever through to the end of the year.
Ricky just pretty much clarified it for me, so I don’t want to get confused all over again.
easy ladies and gentlemen, there is absolutely no need to hit the panic button YET.
It would be naive from djokovic if he does enter basel/valencia
vamosrafa,
Why did you use the word “naïve”? Do you mean that it’s unrealistic to believe that entering basel/Valencia will give him year end #1?
yes
He’s caught between a rock and a hard place. Not to, the scenario of snatching back ATP No.1 and even (admittedly less likely) YE No.1 is in jeopardy. To do so, could well jeopardise the DC which let’s face it rests on his shoulders.
#NalbandianDelPotroFeud
@ed251137, what is your hashtag about? Hasn’t the feud retired, too?
What ed probably means is that Djokovic not participating in DC may damage the relationship between his teammates.(eg tipsarevic) From what I have heard, the relationship between Del Potro and Nalbandian is still pretty testy. Because lets face it, for Djokovic to even have a small chance at the number 1, he would probably have to win 3 events on the trot in consecutive weeks, and he may subsequently have to pull out of DC due to the resulting fatigue.
i was referring to the animosity between them when delPotro went to Shanghai for the WTF after Nalbandian had said he should skip it to safe himself for the upcoming DC final with Spain. You’re right, the bridge was eventually repaired but not for a long while. This incident was preceded by a quite serious spat between Andy and Jamie the same year when Andy put his ATP schedule in front of DC and declined to play and GB was relegated. Jamie went public about his disapproval of his brother’s decision.
I am simply saying there is no way Nole will not play (unless he is seriously injured) but it begs the question what kind of condition he will be in if he adds Basel or Valencia purely to chase extra points.
Ironically an injured Nole retired when playing delPotro when he retired from the DC semi-final in 2011.
Thanks for explaining. Yes, DC has a way to bring national feuds about. Becker/Stich didn’t work well, mostly. BetweenSampras and Agassi there was no love lost. Haas/Kiefer wasn’t harmonious, and if I look at Wawrinka now, I wonder, if, with a little good will and a little luck, Federer could have been a DC winner after all. Last time they played a non relegation tye, they sank themselves in a ridiculously flawed clay court, though.
Darn, I mean no ill for Novak but I hope Rafa can retain Nr. 1 at least until the end of the year 🙂
RT @juanjo_sports: “Also with this win, Djokovic has won 5 different M1000s more than once: IW (2x), Miami (3x), Canada (3x), Rome (2x), Shanghai (2x)”
So what? Is he the first player to do so? Rafa also has won 5 different M1000s more than once: IW, Monte Carlo, Canada, Rome, Madrid. Correct me if I’m wrong, but so has Fed, no?: IW, Miami, Madrid, Canada, Cincy.
One by one, past greats are now changing their tune and acknowledging Rafa’s greatness.
“ROD LAVER is an undoubted tennis legend, the only player to have twice won all four major singles titles in the same year.
The Australian, 75, achieved that “double” first as an amateur in 1962, then as a professional in 1969.
Will such a feat ever be achieved again?
Laver has no doubt that current world No 1 Rafael Nadal can join the exclusive club which has American Don Budge as its only other member.
“Yes, it could be done again,” says Laver. “When I look at the way Nadal plays on grass, clay and hard courts, especially this year, he’s obviously one that can win it.”
http://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/436394/Rod-Laver-Rafael-Nadal-can-make-it-to-world-no-1-again
Hopefully now Caro will make time for her game:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2458466/Rory-McIlroy-splits-Caroline-Wozniacki.html
#GetASlam
Woz has always been mean but finally she gets the reaction which will hurt her.
She made fun of Rafa having cramps. She thought it was funny. She imitated Serena and got labelled as a racist. Still did not learn her lesson. Now she posts an embarrassing picture of her boyfriend and looks like it was the last straw for him.
Hope at least now she learns that being mean doesn’t make you funny or likeable.
Like Novak, Woz tries too hard to be liked. Not necessary…
Just for the record once and for all, I do know the difference between ATP #1 and the year end #1! There, I said it!
people know the difference, they just don’t understand how defending points work and when defending points is relevant.
(i don’t mean you, i mean people)
I’m always surprised, that so many people don’t understand it. Apparently, the ATP isn’t doing a very good PR job here. The most ridiculous thing I read, is this: Missing seven month from the tour was part of Rafa’s secret masterplan to regain No 1, since he has hardly anything to defend in the second half of the season. And to slump this year, is the secret masterplan of Federer to boost his rankings in 2014, since he doesn’t have so many points to defend. What people don’t realize, is, that missing part of the tour or slumping makes your ranking plummet first, and you have to work your way up with lower seeding, which makes it more difficult, since you might meet the top guys earlier. Rafa had to defend all his clay court points from last year with a lower seeding, which on paper made it more difficult for him. In reality, he is so good on clay, that it turned out to be more of a disadvantage for the other top guys, as Novak’s loss in the RG semis to Rafa highlights. That should have been the final.
So, on second though, maybe, it was Rafa’s secret master plan after all, to play the clay season with a lower ranking and ambush the top guys in earlier rounds. 🙂
Maybe, the points missing from not reaching the RG final might make the difference between No 1 and No 2 for Novak, lol!
littlefoot,
I loved your comments! I remember this guy Ben Pronin who blogs on tennis-x, positing the theory that Rafa was never injured and just took off seven months to work on his hard court game! He was serious! It doesn’t seem to occur to these people just how insane these conspiracy theories really are. They throw them out and then defend them endlessly.
You pointed out the idiocy of just taking time off in this sport.
Oh yes, it must be some secret strategy to play the clay season with a lower ranking and beat the top guys in the earlier rounds! 🙂
Novak should have relented in MC and let the spring clay be a clean sweep, let Nadal have his 6 one thousands in a year, and spare us weeks of counting ATP points 😉
Aw, chloro, let Novak have MC, and read my thoughts about the clay season above. Devious Rafa pulled a fast one on Novak, by ambushing him in the semis of RG. 🙂
chloro,
Yes! Too funny! I wish that you would post more. I love reading your thoughts.
NNY, a tennis blogger spouts such nonsense? LOL! Must be some knowledgeable guy! Well, let’s see, if Fed’s ingenious plan to conquer the rankings from below next season, works equally well 🙂
he accomplished that same feat by losing to Rafa in the US Open final.
No, that’s not, what I was pointing out: It’s not about losing to Rafa at RG or the US Open, it’s about not reaching the final of RG. Had Rafa had been seeded higher (N 1 or N 2) he would have never played Novak in the semis, but probably in the final. And Novak would have gotten more points out of RG. So, Rafa’s lower seeding at RG could well earn him the year end No 1.
NNY: That’s why I wont dignify that site by even logging on now. And I certainly wouldn’t contemplate wasting time and energy by posting there.
ed,
You helped me to realize what a futile exercise it was to even bother trying to post on that site. This was the same person who came up with the idea on the eve of the 2010 USO final that Rafa was doping to get that big serve. I remember going after him at that time. So did a lot of other outraged Rafa fans. He never backed down.
I don’t understand it, never have and never will. It’s difficult with someone like this because he presents himself as a supposedly reasonable person.
I honestly done feel the need to defend Rafa from this kind of insanity. I would rather use my energy and engage in more enlightening discussions with reasonable people here.
I am really impressed with how Rafa deals with losses. He has this perspective and ablity to put it into perspective. He said that he is pleased with reaching the final in Beijing and the semis in Shanghai. The next day I believe they said he played golf in Shanghai before leaving. He’s got it together.
what site
Sorry I meant to say – I honestly DON’T feel the need to defend Rafa.
Also in the last paragraph – I said “perspective” twice in the same sentence. Duh! 🙂
Tennis-x.com
NNY, your post on Oct 13, 707 pm
“He will feel even more confident now with back-to-back wins at Beijing and Shanghai and also defending 1500 points. That was key for him to even have a chance to get back to #1.”
Sorry I might have misunderstood but it seems to me from this post that you are a little confused about how defending points works.
Defending points has no relevance to year end ranking as year end ranking consists only of points won this year.
If you were talking of 52 week rolling ranking no. 1 for which defending points is relevant, there is no way Nole can get to No. 1 by defending points as (i) his rolling points cannot increase by defending points and (ii) Rafa has no points to defend so Rafa’s rolling points cannot decrease.. So for the rolling ranking, defending points by Nole cannot get him back to no. 1 as it cannot decrease the lead which Rafa has on him.
So for the record what did you mean by your above post?
@holdserve re defending points:
Yes, confusing to say the least. But anything that puts Rafa in the underdog corner appeals to some people.
I wish that some people would let me speak for myself.
holdserve,
Now to address your question so that I can speak on my own behalf, without someone else putting words in my mouth that have nothing to do with what I mean or what I think.
To be honest, the discussion was very confusing. That’s why I said that I wanted some clarity at one point. Djoker needs to defend his points to get the #1 ranking back. Is that not correct? Not the year end #1 ranking. They are two different things.
Ricky clarified everything for me and the confusion was cleared up. I wanted to know what Rafa had to do in order to get the #1 year end ranking. I also wanted to know what Djoker had to do in order to get the #1 year end ranking.
Hopefully we can move on and put this to rest. 🙂
Maybe, an analogy helps: Each player has two pots of marbles. One is the ranking pot, the other one is the race pot. Both pots contain marbles of three different colours: Blue for hard court wins, red for clay and green for gras court wins (maybe also deep sea blue for indoor hard court). The race pot is empty at the beginning of the season. With each tourney played, it fills up with the marbles won there. The ranking pot is always full with the marbles won over 365 days. When a tourney is finished, the marbles won there last year are taken out, and the marbles won there this year are added. When the player doesn’t take part in a tourney, he played last year, the marbles are simply taken out. While the ranking pot fluctuates, the race pot is simply filling up over the course of the season. At the beginning of the season, the ranking pot reflects the overall level of a player much better than the race pot, which is only filled with marbles of the seasonal colours. That’s, why Rafa’s race pot has been the fullest after June for many years now, containing an extraordiarily high amount of red marbles. It’s easy to see, that the level of the ranking pot and the race pot convergence slowly, as the season unfolds. At the end of the season, they contain exactly the same amount and colour mixture. The only complication are adjustments of the race pots, because not all tourneys can be counted, if a player plays more tourneys than can be counted, which makes a lot of sense, because the ATP want to discourage players to win as many marbles as possible by simply playing nonstop. A player like Kafelnikow comes to mind here, who boosted his rankings by playing all the time.
This whole analogy might seem childish, but I think, it helps to picture the whole process. And it’s only a matter of speaking, if NNY says, Nole defended his marbles in China or he won them. Both is correct. Fact is, he had to do so, to preserve his chances for a future No 1 ranking. And that’s all, NNY was saying, I guess 🙂
And congrats to Novak, who earned his marbles in China 🙂
littlefoot,
I would give you a big hug if I could! Thanks so much for your inventive way of explaining it all. I love the two pots of marbles and the different colors representing the different court surfaces.
Thank you for also explaining what I was trying to say. We are getting caught up in word games here. As you said, whether Djoker defended his points or won them, both are correct. That is what I was trying to say. Because if Djoker lost to Rafa in the final a Beijing and did not win the final at Shanghai, then the race for year end #1 would be over and so would his chance to regain the #1 ranking.
Thank you, thank you! 🙂
Well done. A clear and succinct guide – I particularly like the use of visual images to demonstrate the difference.
Woe betide anybody who confuses the two from now on!
Thanks, ed! I think, the only real complication comes from the adjustments made: What tourneys can be counted, and the penalties for madatory tourneys not played for whatever reasons.
Give it a rest guys!!Relax!! Execise in futility worrying when not in your hands at all.
Basically, the Race points are the Year to Date points starting from January and the Ranking points are the 52 week rolling points cumulative from the previous year.
Just go to the ATP website, click on Ranking, select a player, click on Rankings Breakdown and it shows clearly when they earned the points and when the points drop off. Scroll down and click on Race to London to see the Race points. At the end of the year the Race points and the Ranking points become one, although there might be aslight difference for uncountable tournaments which are reflected in the Race points but not the Ranking points. The Race is purely to determine who qualifies for the WTF,
The YE #1 will be the player with the most Race points plus their WTF points which will be virtually the same as the Ranking points.
This table shows clearly, on a spreadsheet, how the Race Points are made up, just scroll down until you see the spreadsheet:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_ATP_World_Tour_Finals
i hope people aren’t actually confused by this….
NNY?
(Kidding! Just kidding! I like to do the kiddings, no?)
nadline@October 15, 2013 at 4:26 pm
—At the end of the year the Race points and the Ranking points become one—
They become equal before the WTF – the points from the 2012 WTF will drop BEFORE the 2013 WTF.
The ATP website: “The Emirates ATP Rankings period is the immediate past 52 weeks, except for:
(i) The Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, which is dropped on the Monday following the last regular-season ATP event [the Paris Masters] of the following year”
Yes, hilarious!
Oh and I am not going to even bother looking at that link.
Glad to see you have a good sense of humour nny!!!
NNY, even a cyber hug is very nice 🙂
I will look up that link after my morning coffee. Or I might lose my marbles.
NNY,
Abandon ego like our common hero Rafa who learns because he is humble.
Be humble and admit you were confused. There’s no shame in it. There is shame if you stop learning,
Anyway, I guess I am irritable on this point because of all the irrational arguments about how it is advantageous for players not to have played the previous year. How Rafa doesn’t need to win anything now as he has no points to defend and only Nole has to focus on winning as he has to defend points if he wants no. 1 because he won so much last year at this time. That is so annoying!!!
Anyway, I am moving on.
I think I will not visit any forum till the two rankings coincide.
.
My calculation.
Race to be YE #1:
Djoko can earn points :
¤ ATP500 somewhere – 500 (there are 2 tournaments left: Basel and Valencia next week)
¤ Paris – 1000
¤ WTF – 1500
TOTAL: 3000 points
Rafa:
¤ leads today (on Oct.15) with 2060 points in the Race to London
¤ needs to add 945 points (Basel & Paris & WTF) to be YE No.1.
TOTAL: 3005 points
To keep the No.1 spot after that, Rafa should earn 225 points to cover the points Djoko can win in the Davis Cup final in the middle of November.