Shanghai final expert picks: Sinner vs. Djokovic

Expert picks are back for the final of the Rolex Shanghai Masters on Sunday afternoon, when Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic battle for the trophy. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

(1) Jannik Sinner vs. (4) Novak Djokovic

Ricky: Djokovic was my title pick before the tournament started and there is no reason to waffle now that we have reached the final. The only question mark with him going into Shanghai was motivation level, but he obviously would have lost by now if he wasn’t motivated. Now that he has just one match to go this fortnight, there is no reason not to leave everything on the court. Moreover, the Serb will be especially inspired since he has lost three of his last four meetings with Sinner. Still, Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 4-3 and he dominated his only previous final against the Italian 6-3, 6-3 at the Nitto ATP Finals last fall. It’s also worth noting that the Serb is 39-5 lifetime in Shanghai with a record four titles. He simply loves this tournament. It certainly won’t be easy and nobody in their right mind would bet the farm on it since Sinner is the best player in the world, but Djokovic has a good chance. Djokovic in 3: 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(5).

Cheryl: This is the sort of match in which it was a no-brainer to pick Djokovic. The GOAT is so clutch, so dependable in the big moments, that unless there were extenuating circumstances, I never pick against him. But it’s 2024. He’s not only major-less, but he hasn’t won any ATP titles at all. This is not a typical year. For his part, Sinner is the world No. 1 for a reason. He comes into the tail end of the season with 6 titles this year, including two majors. He and Carlos Alcaraz are the two best players by some margin…yet I’m tempted to pick the Serb anyway–and were the meeting any earlier in the tournament, I’d do so since there is a chance that Sinner is fatigued from the long season. Since it’s the final, though? I’m going with the Italian. Sinner in 3: 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-5.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Djokovic and Sinner have combined to hit just three double-faults in the last three matches en route to the Shanghai final, just one statistic that points toward a high-quality contest. Everything at this time for Djokovic is gravy, having jumped into Nitto ATP Finals position and on the verge of a substantial haul of 1000 points at an event he last played in 2019. Meanwhile, Sinner cemented the world No. 1 ranking for the year this week with his result this fortnight. The Italian has won the last three of the last four meetings, all played within two months at the end of last year and beginning of this one. During that time, it appeared Sinner made significant inroads each time they played. He flipped the script in the third and final set of their Davis Cup tie last November and then dismantled Djokovic in their Australian Open semifinal earlier this year. A parallel here may be how Sinner was unable to defeat Daniil Medvedev for so long but has now taken ownership of that matchup. Similarly, his game flummoxed Djokovic each of the last two times they played. As the Serb continues to see his fiercest competitors announcing their retirements from the game, he soldiers onward. The 37-year-old has now begun his extended career victory lap with a set date and time not yet determined. The freer, looser Djokovic takes this one and claims his 41st Masters 1000 title. Djokovic in 3: 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-3.