Serena a heavy favorite at Wimbledon, Muguruza and Keys also in the mix

Serena Williams has already lost two major finals this year; to Angelique Kerber at the Australian Open and to Garbine Muguruza at the French Open. Will Wimbledon–the third leg of the Grand Slam season–be the charm for the world No. 1? On paper that is expected to be the case. But Muguruza, Petra Kvitova, and Madison Keys, among many others, may have something to say at the All-England Club.

Top 5 favorites:

Serena Williams: 3 to 2

Serena defeated Muguruza in last year’s Wimbledon final, putting her a U.S. Open victory away from capturing the calendar-year Grand Slam. Roberto Vinci erased those grand designs in the semifinals at Flushing Meadows and Serena has not won a major since. But there are more than a few reasons to think the American will get back on track on the lawn of London. She is 79-10 lifetime at this event with six titles, including four since 2009. The 34-year-old surrendered only two total sets on her way to lifting the trophy last summer. She is 24-4 overall in 2016 and 13-1 in her last 14 matches.

Garbine Muguruza: 5 to 1

Just because Muguruza is a Spaniard who recently triumphed at Roland Garros does not mean she is a clay-court specialist. Anyone who watched Wimbledon last summer knows that is not the case. The 22-year-old went all the way to the title match before falling to Serena 6-4, 6-4. Muguruza’s trek through the draw included wins over Kerber, Caroline Wozniacki, and Agnieszka Radwanska. The current world No. 2 lost her first and only grass-court match during her Wimbledon preparation, but that opening-round ouster in Mallorca can be chalked up to mental and physical fatigue following the French Open.

Petra Kvitova: 7 to 1

To a greater extent than perhaps everyone else on the WTA Tour, Kvitova knows her results are predicated on the surface. The 26-year-old is mediocre on clay, good on hard courts, and awesome on grass. Each of her two Grand Slam titles has come at Wimbledon (2011 and 2014). Since the start of this event in 2012, she has reached major  quarterfinals four times–three at Wimbledon. In the same time span, the 11th-ranked Czech has been eliminated in the fourth round or earlier 12 times–only once at Wimbledon. A return to grass may be just what the doctor ordered.

Madison Keys: 12 to 1

Keys is not yet the standard-bearer of women’s tennis in the United States, but there is light at the end of the tunnel that is the Serena and Venus Williams era. At just 21 years old, Keys already finds herself in the top 10. She accomplished that career milestone by capturing the Birmingham title last week. Such grass-court success should come as no surprise, because Keys is a massive hitter of the ball who strikes it flat and boasts a scary-good serve. She is on the opposite side of the draw from Serena, so that certainly helps her chances.

Agnieszka Radwanska: 18 to 1

Radwanska may have to be considered the best current woman to have never won a major. She has, however, come close. The 27-year-old Pole advanced to the Wimbledon final in 2012 only to bow out at the hands of her nemesis Serena (Radwanska is 0-10 lifetime in the head-to-head series). In addition to that result, the world No. 3 has two quarterfinal finishes at the All-England Club and a pair of semifinal showings (2013 and 2015). Radwanska has not set the world on fire in 2016, but she also hasn’t been too far below par (semifinals at the Australian Open and in Indian Wells are among her highlights).

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