The Big 3 are still resting and Dominic Thiem is out of Buenos Aires, but the February swing is nonetheless heating up this week. It is highlighted by Rotterdam, where Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Gael Monfils, and Andrey Rublev are among those in action. Buenos Aires is suffering without Thiem, while New York is home to big servers John Isner, Milos Raonic, Reilly Opelka, and Ivo Karlovic.
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
Where: Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 2,013,855 Euros
Top seed: Daniil Medvedev
Defending champion: Gael Monfils
Draw analysis: It’s a new era in Rotterdam, where Roger Federer occasionally headlined the field but has now given way to an injection of youth. Medvedev are Tsitsipas are the top two seeds, joined by Rublev, Denis Shapovalov, Karen Khachanov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Hubert Hurkacz, Jannik Sinner, and Alexander Bublik. Although Tsitsipas has to go up against one of those talents (Hurkacz) right off the bat, Medvedev’s draw is actually tougher. The fifth-ranked Russian will open with Vasek Pospisil before possibly facing Rublev in the quarterfinals and Monfils, Khachanov, or Fabio Fognini in the semis.
On Tsitsipas’ side, one quarterfinal will likely turn out to be Roberto Bautista Agut vs. David Goffin. The other could go in any number of directions. Hurkacz is dangerous for Tsitsipas, while Shapovalov (vs. Grigor Dimitrov) and Auger-Aliassime (vs. Jan-Lennard Struff) have tough openers on their hands and Benoit Paire could also make some noise. Paire awaits a rematch of a contentious U.S. Open encounter with Aljaz Bedene before possibly meeting either Tsitsipas or Hurkacz.
First-round upset alert: Grigor Dimitrov over (8) Denis Shapovalov. Dimitrov has struggled at the beginning of this season, but he can get hot from out of nowhere. For example, he made a semifinal run at the 2019 U.S. Open after being in far worse form that he is now. But this upset chance has more to do with Shapovalov than it does with Dimitrov. The Canadian is just 3-5 so far this year and has lost three matches in a row, including to Marton Fucsovics at the Australian Open and in blowout fashion to Pospisil this past week in Montpellier.
Hot: Daniil Medvedev, Gael Monfils, Roberto Bautista Agut, Andrey Rublev, Vasek Pospisil, Hubert Hurkacz
Cold: Denis Shapovalov, Jaoa Sousa, Adrian Mannarino, Radu Albot, Robin Haase, Grigor Dimitrov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Aljaz Bedene
Quarterfinal predictions: Daniil Medvedev over Andrey Rublev, Karen Khachanov over Gael Monfils, Roberto Bautista Agut over David Goffin, and Stefanos Tsitsipas over Grigor Dimitrov
Semifinals: Medvedev over Khachanov and Bautista Agut over Tsitsipas
Final: Medvedev over Bautista Agut
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New York Open
Where: New York, New York
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 250
Prize money: $719,320
Top seed: John Isner
Defending champion: Reilly Opelka
Draw analysis: There is nothing that Isner will like about his draw in New York. Fellow huge server Reilly Opelka has taken him out multiple times in recent seasons, including at this very tournament en route to the title last year. Isner could meet Opelka in the semifinals this time around, but before that the 34-year-old American may be in store for a similar matchup with Ivo Karlovic in round two. Kevin Anderson also finds himself in the top half of the bracket, so Opelka could run into some trouble prior to the last four.
Raonic, who made a surprise quarterfinal appearance in Melbourne, should have an easier time of things in the bottom half. Among the challengers are Ugo Humbert, Kyle Edmund, and Miomir Kecmanovic. Humbert has cooled off since capturing the Auckland title, while Edmund and Kecmanovic are struggling. Jack Sock is making another return from injury and may benefit from a favorable draw with Marcos Giron in round one followed by Humbert.
First-round upset alert: Tommy Paul over (6) Miomir Kecmanovic. Paul did well to reach the third round of the Australian Open, upsetting Dimitrov along the way. The American would almost certainly win this on clay or a slow hard court, but an indoor setting will make him the official underdog—not just according to ranking and seed. Still, Kecmanovic has been in dreadful form to start this season.
Hot: Milos Raonic, Ugo Humbert, Tennys Sandgren, Tommy Paul, Jordan Thompson, Soonwoo Kwon
Cold: John Isner, Miomir Kecmanovic, Kyle Edmund, Steve Johnson, Kevin Anderson, Jack Sock, Brayden Schnur, Dominik Koepfer
Semifinal predictions: Reilly Opelka over Jordan Thompson and Milos Raonic over Miomir Kecmanovic
Final: Raonic over Opelka
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Argentina Open
Where: Buenos Aires, Argentina
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: $611,420
Top seed: Diego Schwartzman
Defending champion: Marco Cecchinato
Draw analysis: Guido Pella joked that he hoped Thiem would skip this tournament in order to give everyone else a chance. And, a few days later, that is exactly what happened. Pella is a direct beneficiary, too, as the 22nd-ranked Argentine would have been the No. 3 seed and liable to be on the same side of the bracket as the Australian Open runner-up. Instead, Pella has moved up to the second spot opposite top-seeded countryman Diego Schwartzman. Of course, things still aren’t going to be easy for anyone in Buenos Aires. The field is loaded with strong clay-courters, not unlike the case this past week in Cordoba. Pella will likely kick off his campaign against Cordoba semifinalist Andrej Martin and could meet either Laslo Djere (also a Cordoba semifinalist) or Juan Ignacio Londero in the quarters.
Schwartzman is in line to face compatriots in his first two matches, starting with Federico Delbonis and then Leonardo Mayer. Also in the top quarter are Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Pablo Cuevas, while Borna Coric, Cristian Garin, and Corentin Moutet are potential semifinal foes for Schwartzman. Garin, who currently finds himself in the Cordoba title match, will likely square off with Moutet in the last 16.
First-round upset alert: Pablo Andujar over (8) Casper Ruud. This has to be Ruud’s favorite time of year, but he is going up against a fellow clay-loving competitor in Andujar. Their only previous encounter came last season on clay at the Prostejov Challenger, where Andujar cruised 6-2, 6-4. The Spaniard got two matches under his belt this past week in Cordoba, whereas Ruud took time off and will be playing his first clay-court match of 2020.
Hot: Diego Schwartzman, Andrej Martin
Cold: Borna Coric, Pablo Cuevas, Jaume Munar, Marco Cecchinato, Roberto Carballes Baena
Semifinal predictions: Corentin Moutet over Diego Schwartzman and Juan Ignacio Londero over Dusan Lajovic
Final: Londero over Moutet
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who ya got?
Thiem skipping a tournament? Darn, I hate it when the kids grow up.