The February swing heats up in a big way this week with perhaps the best 500-point tournament of the entire season. Jannik Sinner was ranked No. 17 in the world at the time of seeding (he is now 14th in Monday’s rankings) and he is not even seeded in Rotterdam. Eight of the ATP’s top 16 players are in the field, including Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, and Daniil Medvedev. Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz is back from injury in Buenos Aires and Taylor Fritz is the top seed in Delray Beach.
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
Where: Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 2,074,505 Euros
Top seed: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Defending champion: Felix Auger-Aliassime
Draw analysis: The entire draw is loaded, but the bottom half is especially ridiculous. It is home to Rublev, Medvedev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Hubert Hurkacz, Roberto Bautsita Agut, Grigor Dimitrov, Alex de Minaur, Borna Coric, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Botic van de Zandschulp, and Montpellier runner-up Maxime Cressy. There are no easy matches—not even in the first round. Case in point: some of the openers are Rublev vs. De Minaur, Medvedev vs. Davidovich Fokina, Hurkacz vs. Bautista Agut, and Auger-Aliassime vs. Lorenzo Sonego.
Out of all 32 players, the only one who can say he has a legitimately “good” draw is Holger Rune. A struggling Alexander Zverev is Rune’s nearest seed and the unseeded group in that quarter of the bracket is unspectacular. The 19-year-old Dane should roll into the semifinals, at which point he could meet Tsitsipas or Sinner. A Tsitsipas-Sinner second-round showdown is likely, and it would come just four days after the Italian triumphed in Montpellier.
Hot: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holger Rune, Jannik Sinner, Maxime Cressy, Marc-Andrea Huesler, Contant Lestienne
Cold: Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Aslan Karatsev, Alexander Bublik, Stan Wawrinka
Quarterfinal predictions: Stefanos Tsitsipas over Stan Wawrinka, Holger Rune over Soonwoo Kwon, Daniil Medvedev over Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Daniil Medvedev over Grigor Dimitrov
Semifinals: Rune over Tsitsipas and Medvedev over Rublev
Final: Rune over Medvedev
Delray Beach Open
Where: Delray Beach, Florida
Surface: Hard
Points: 250
Prize money: $642,735
Top seed: Taylor Fritz
2022 champion: Cameron Norrie (not playing)
Draw analysis: On the heels of Yibing Wu’s performance in Dallas, where he became the first Chinese player to win an ATP title, the rest of the Delray Beach field will be thrilled to see him depart. Wu withdrew following his historic triumph and was replaced in the bottom half of the draw by lucky loser Steve Johnson. That leaves a final spot relatively up for grabs, with Tommy Paul and John Isner the top contenders. However, Isner has to make a quick turnaround after losing to Wu on Sunday in Dallas and the 6’10’’ American has a big-serving first-round showdown on his hands with fellow former college star Christopher Eubanks. Speaking of college stars, it will be interesting to see what Ben Shelton does as an encore to his Australian Open quarterfinal breakthrough.
At the top of the bracket, Fritz will be well rested and motivated after losing in the Dallas semis to Wu. With Denis Shapovalov struggling, Fritz appears to have a favorable path to the final and perhaps all the way to the title. Based on current form, Yoshihito Nishioka may be a more likely semifinal opponent than Shapovalov for the No. 1 seed.
Hot: Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Ben Shelton, J.J. Wolf, Yibing Wu, Marcos Giron
Cold: Miomir Kecmanovic, Jack Sock, Fernando Verdasco
Quarterfinal predictions: Taylor Fritz over J.J. Wolf, Yoshihito Nishioka over Denis Shapovalov, Marcos Giron over Nuno Borges, and Tommy Paul over John Isner
Semifinals: Fritz over Nishioka and Paul over Giron
Final: Fritz over Paul
Argentina Open
Where: Buenos Aires, Argentina
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: $626,595
Top seed: Carlos Alcaraz
2022 champion: Casper Ruud (not playing)
Draw analysis: Alcaraz is back. The reigning U.S. Open champion missed the Australian Open because of a knee injury, but he has healed up and is ready to go for the Golden Swing. At No. 2 in the world and having won bigger titles left and right last season, Alcaraz would probably bypass this 250 event under normal circumstances. But considering all the time off he has endured, the 19-year-old Spaniard is taking his talents to Buenos Aires. Although Alcaraz is a heavy favorite on paper, expectations should probably be held in check given his relative inactivity since the U.S. Open (he also missed the Nitto ATP Finals due to a leg issue).
With Alcaraz vulnerable, Sebastian Baez may be able to take advantage in the top quarter of the bracket. Baez just triumphed in front of his Argentine fans in Cordoba and will be looking to do the same in Buenos Aires. Fatigue should not be a huge factor; this is the Golden Swing, which might as well be tennis’ Super Bowl for clay-courters like Baez. That half of the draw is otherwise quite soft, as Diego Schwartzman is in a huge slump and Francisco Cerundolo is dealing with an injury. The bottom half, on the other hand, is absolutely loaded with clay-courters like Dominic Thiem, Lorenzo Musetti, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Cordoba runner-up Federico Coria.
Hot: Sebastian Baez, Federico Coria
Cold: Diego Schwartzman, Dominic Thiem, Thiago Monteiro, Guido Pella, Fabio Fognini
Quarterfinal predictions: Sebastian Baez over Carlos Alcaraz, Guido Pella over Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Lorenzo Musetti over Alex Molcan, and Cameron Norrie over Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Semifinals: Baez over Pella and Musetti over Norrie
Final: Musetti over Baez
who ya got?
Musetti over Alcaraz
Great week of tennis…all around the globe. Glad that Alcaraz is back!
Too much tennis on 3 surfaces, hard to follow
Players who’ve done well in a recent tournament, falling like flowers in the frost, which usually happens.
Margot,
Did you see that Ricky closed the WTA page? And it is unlikely that he will open a page as we had before. Not being able to write about WTA bothers me; there is nowhere to write about WTA freely on this site.
Did you try emailing him? This site’s misbehaving for me tonight anyway.
No, Margot I did not try emailing him. I don’t remember ever doing that.
Having a WTA page should be standard procedure for a tennis blog, IMO.
Congrats for winning the WTA bracket this week; well done, Margot! I was so nervous about Iga returning to the date she went on her amazing run last year that my brain could barely function. It’s probably inevitable that she won’t be able to replicate her performance for another year, but I dread all the celebrations. I’m crazy – nothing new. 😀
Thanks and congrats on Rotterdam. Some tennis journo I read was predicting Pegula would do well at the AO so I thought she was worth a punt to the final. Glad to see Iga back though, hope she manages to find a way through those power players.
On a happier note…
Rotterdam is one of my favorite tournaments (even though it is just ATP).
Maybe it’s this time of year because tennis is all over, the Middle East, South America, Mexico events, and Acapulco.
Sinner beats Tsit. Good. Steph comes over as an awful big head. Like the way he plays but……
And JJ Wolf out. Eliizabeth will be happy!
I am happy! Special Congrats to Iga Swiatek 😀
Adrian Mannarino does good work for me sometimes in the USA.
And Sinner wins! Jannik Sinner is a good guy.
Medvedev v Sinner next.
I admit I like Tallon Griekspoor and the new guy Gijs Brouwer.
Some will be happy Zverev is out.Im happy for Griekspoor.
Don’t like wolf either.Too many celebrations
At least Wolffe cut the mullet hair off. He could turn out to be okay in time. Someone being American doesn’t automatically mean I root for them, though.
Nearly missed Doha. Crikey, what a strong field.
Dubai I mean! Duh!
I am glad you and Big Al made it; I am already in a group by myself, and I’ve tried to delete the group but I think I have to contact TDC to do it.
or, so what if I have a few ghost brackets 😀
Dubai is a great WTA tournament.
Doha looked cold and very windy, especially for the final.
He cried wolf too often…