This year’s February swing is relatively low on quantity but high on quality, with fewer ATP 250s but more 500s. The upcoming week reflects that trend, with a pair of 500-point tournaments taking place in Rotterdam and Dallas. Rotterdam’s field is—as usual—absolutely stacked; Dallas’ is better than ever before because this is the event’s debut at the 500 level after being upgraded from a 250. Among the players in action across the two tournaments are Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, and Ben Shelton.
It’s time to break down the draws and make predictions.
ABN AMRO Open
Where: Rotterdam, the Netherlands
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 2,563,150 Euros
Top seed: Carlos Alcaraz
2024 champion: Jannik Sinner (not playing)
Draw analysis: Alcaraz may be the No. 1 seed in Rotterdam, but the draw did not do him any favors. Up first for the Spaniard is Botic van de Zandschulp, who famously upset him at last summer’s U.S. Open. Following that match, Alcaraz could run into Felix Auger-Aliassime—without question one of the best indoor players in the world. Also in the top half of the bracket are Rublev, Holger Rune, Hubert Hurkacz, and Australian Open quarterfinalist Lorenzo Sonego.
Of course, there are no easy draws for anyone at this event. The field is so deep that the unseeded contingent includes Auger-Aliassime, Sonego, Van de Zandschulp, Matteo Berrettini, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Alexander Bublik, Jakub Mensik, and Tallon Griekspoor. Medvedev will kick off his campaign against Wawrinka before potentially meeting familiar foe Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals. Additional first-round matchups to watch are Bublik vs. Mensik, Rune vs. Sonego, Berrettini vs. Griekspoor, and Mpetshi Perricard vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic.
Hot: Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Jakub Mensik, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Jiri Lehecka, Lorenzo Sonego, Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cold: Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Hubert Hurkacz, Flavio Cobolli, Alexander Bublik, Stan Wawrinka, Jan-Lennard Struff
Quarterfinal predictions: Felix Auger-Aliassime over Holger Rune, Andrey Rublev over Jiri Lehecka, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard over Alex de Minaur, and Tallon Griekspoor over Daniil Medvedev
Semifinals: Auger-Aliassime over Rublev and Mpetshi Perricard over Griekspoor
Final: Auger-Aliassime over Mpetshi Perricard
Dallas Open
Where: Dallas, Texas
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: $2,760,000
Top seed: Taylor Fritz
Defending champion: Tommy Paul
Draw analysis: If you are a fan of American men’s tennis (and what a time it is for them!), Dallas is for you. Seven of the top eight Americans are in the field (Sebastian Korda is the lone exception), including all of the top four (Fritz, Paul, Shelton, and Frances Tiafoe). Two of the three previous Dallas finals have been all-American matchups, with Paul beating Marcos Giron in 2024. More of the same could be in store for this installment, albeit probably not with Giron—who has to face No. 2 seed Casper Ruud in round one before potentially meeting Tiafoe in the quarterfinals and Shelton in the semis. Shelton has the best draw of anyone in by far the softest quarter.
Look no further than the first matchup at the very top of the bracket to know that Dallas is worthy of popcorn. Fritz opens against Arthur Rinderknech, and to say that their two prior encounters were contentious would be an understatement. It’s a rough road all around for Fritz, who could go up against Denis Shapovalov in round two, Tomas Machac in the last eight, and either Paul or Alex Michelson in the semis. Paul is coming off a quarterfinal run in Melbourne, where Michelsen advanced to the fourth round.
Hot: Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Ben Shelton, Tomas Machac, Alex Michelsen, Bu Yunchaokete
Cold: Casper Ruud, Frances Tiafoe, Matteo Arnaldi, Cameron Norrie, Jenson Brooksby, Adrian Mannarino
Quarterfinal predictions: Tomas Machac over Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul over Reilly Opelka, Ben Shelton over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Brandon Nakashima over Marcos Giron
Semifinals: Paul over Machac and Shelton over Nakashima
Final: Paul over Shelton
who ya got?
Carlitos & Tommy
Carlos a bold choice on indoor hard