Rome SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Berdych, Federer vs. Paire

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are one win away each from a showdown in the Rome final. Nadal is going up Tomas Berdych on Saturday while Federer is facing Benoit Paire.

(6) Tomas Berdych vs. (5) Rafael Nadal

Berdych and Nadal will be doing battle for the 17th time in their careers and for the second time this season when they clash in the semifinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Saturday. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 13-3, including 4-0 on clay. The Spaniard lost three of his first four meetings with Berdych, but he has since won 12 in a row–including two months ago via a 6-4, 7-5 decision in the Indian Wells semifinals. Berdych, who has not beaten Nadal since 2006, has lost nine consecutive sets to his nemesis on the slow stuff since winning their first such set in the 2005 Bastad final.

In that sense, Nadal appears to be a dominant force–however, he has been anything but that this week in Rome. The defending champion needed two hours and 37 minutes to overcome Ernests Gulbis 1-6, 7-5, 6-4 on Thursday before holding off David Ferrer 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 after two hours and 46 minutes in the quarterfinals. Nadal, who opened his title defense with a blowout of Fabio Fognini, is now 34-2 for the season and 39-2 lifetime at this tournament. Berdych cannot be too excited about facing this particular opponent, but he did not exactly have a favorable history against Novak Djokovic heading into Friday’s quarters, either. The sixth-ranked Czech seemed to be well on his way to a 14th loss in 15 tries against the Serb when he trailed 6-2, 5-2, but the underdog stormed back for an improbable 2-6, 7-5, 6-4 triumph. Berdych, who preceded that big win with straight-set scalps of Denis Istomin and Kevin Anderson, owns a 29-9 record for his 2013 campaign.

Interestingly, Berdych actually has the exact kind of game that should trouble Nadal–a huge serve, flat and powerful groundstrokes that can bulldoze their way through any court, and a two-handed backhand that can comfortably handle high balls. The No. 6 seed’s movement, however, can be and always has been exposed by Nadal–especially on clay. Berdych is playing well enough right now to win this, but it’s hard to imagine him having that necessary belief based on his recent struggles against Nadal.

Pick: Nadal 7-6(6), 6-3

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Benoit Paire vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Paire will be squaring off for the third time in their careers and for the second time this season on Saturday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Federer’s way; 6-2, 6-2 last fall in Basel and 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 in the first round of this year’s Australian Open. Paire, though, is playing arguably the best tennis of his professional life at the moment. The 36th-ranked Frenchman already owns 18 of his 50 ATP-level match victories in 2013. So far in Rome he has taken out Juan Monaco, Julien Benneteau, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Marcel Granollers (he lost a total of just one game to Granollers).

This also happens to be Federer’s best tournament of the season. The third-ranked Swiss took time off after Indian Wells and he fell to Kei Nishikori in the Madrid third round, but he is back in fine form this week. Federer has not dropped a single set in dismissals of Potito Starace, Gilles Simon, and Jerzy Janowicz. Paire has the talent to hang with anyone, but he has to dictate play in order to do so because his backhand is by far his best shot and his forehand can be exploited when he does not have control of rallies. Federer is a master at serve placement and groundstroke accuracy, so this does not bode well for the underdog. Facing Federer is a bad matchup for almost anyone, but it is an especially bad one for Paire.

Pick: Federer 6-1, 6-4

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