Rome R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Shapovalov, Tsitsipas vs. Berrettini

Rafael Nadal headlines a blockbuster day at the Rome Masters, as he goes up against talented Canadian Denis Shapovalov. Meanwhile, Stefanos Tsitsipas battles home favorite Matteo Berrettini for a place in the quarterfinals.

(2) Rafael Nadal vs. (13) Denis Shapovalov

Rafael Nadal appears to be doing what he’s done nearly every year of his storied professional career; he’s working himself into the best clay version of himself just in time for the French Open. The Spaniard, who captured his first title of the year in Barcelona, faced a red-hot Jannik Sinner in his first match in Rome on Wednesday. He played what was likely his best match of the season to advance 7-5, 6-4.

Denis Shapovalov does have a win over Nadal, but it was at home on the hard courts of the Canadian Open. The only time they played on clay (Rome 2018), Shapovalov absorbed an old-fashioned drubbing. Based on how his clay season is going, he might eat another tomorrow. The Canadian won a pair of matches this week to earn his third-round spot, but victories over Kamil Majchrzak and Stefano Travaglia won’t do much to prepare him for Nadal on clay.

With Nadal displaying some of his best tennis against Sinner on Wednesday, anything other than a straight-set win over Shapovalov would be a surprise.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 2

Ricky pick: Nadal in 2

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WWW: Nadal vs. Shapovalov?

(5) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (9) Matteo Berrettini

Perhaps the most interesting match of the day on a loaded docket is the showdown between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Matteo Berrettini. Tsitsipas has shown some of the best clay-court tennis of his career so far in 2021, and he has his first Masters 1000 in Monte-Carlo to show for his efforts.

Matteo Berrettini

Berrettini is playing nearly as well as Tsitsipas. He just made the final in Madrid last week (lost to Alexander Zverev) and he won the title in Belgrade the week before. Berrettini will have the added benefit of playing in front of an Italian crowd tomorrow, as fans are permitted in at 25 percent capacity.

This one should be a cracker. The crowd will be firmly in Berrettini’s corner, but the Italian has played a lot of tennis in the past few weeks. Fatigue may be a concern if the match drags out into three sets. Tsitsipas won’t have the fans in his corner, but he comes in more rested because he lost early in Madrid.

Cheryl pick: Tsitsipas in 3

Ricky pick: Tsitsipas in 2

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WWW: Tsitsipas vs. Berrettini?

83 Comments on Rome R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Shapovalov, Tsitsipas vs. Berrettini

  1. Nadal in 2
    Tsitsipas in 3

    Karatsev was out of this world. He’ll be heading inside the top 10 very soon if he stays healthy.

  2. Will be interesting to see if Sinner reaches my predicted ranking of just outside the top 10 (10-12) by the end of this year as well.

  3. Good job by Rafa to take the set to 60 mins long considering it was 4-0 to shapo after 16 mins.. but broken thrice in a set.. sheesh

  4. yeah, no spark in Rafa today…Shapovalov is hitting hard and running like crazy…a wining formula against Rafa in 2 sets..the thing is, they can hardly sustain this level in GS and Rafa is more motivated and more focused when playing RG…this will probably be won by Shapo..still, no indication of Rafa’s level at RG…we shall see…

    • Yeah but this will probably be the first time in a full season that Rafa will have to win rg without winning a masters that year

      Will Rafa play another tourney considering rg is 3 weeks away

  5. Wonder if Ricky is starting to have his doubts now. I get the feeling he was still finding excuses for Nadal until now…

  6. I wish Rafa was serving better…he can not rely on his serve these days and has to fight for every single point…that is so difficult at his age…and these youngsters play him like it was their last…also, I think the main mistake Rafa makes is not approaching the net more often…he can be so good at volleys. This way he is exhausting himself chasing these balls…but maybe he needs these workouts..

    I refuse to think that Rafa is no longer the force on clay…but I have to accept that at one point there will be someone else lifting the RG trophy…I just hope it will not be this year…but then again, this is what I have been saying the the last five years… 🙂

  7. Rafa is standing so far back and is made to run so often, it’s just exhausting even just watching him play. Without a good enough serve, he has to struggle even on clay; all these youngsters come with big serves and hard hitting tennis. He will continue to struggle against any of these players. Even if he wins this match, he may have to face Zverev and then maybe Opelka, both big servers, how to win against them without struggling (esp with his poor serving level)?

    He really needs to move forward into the court more often, uses his FH DTL more often instead of going CC so often! Also, he’s always hitting to his opponents’ BH, it becomes a habit, even when his opponents come with very solid BH and could go CC or DTL. I don’t understand why he’s not changing up and going to their FH more often for a change. His game is becoming so predictable.

    • Rafa’s opponents tend to attack Rafa’s backhand since that is his weak point these days.. Rafa thus feels more comfortable with his FH which goes to the opponent’s backhand side…it is simple as that…

      wow. Rafa takes the set and shows no emotion whatsoever..

  8. I really don’t understand what is going on with Rafa’s serve. But I do not think this is anything like his slump in 2015. Rafa is fighting and coming back. In 2015 it was like he was not there mentally. He could not fight back.

    That is the one thing that is positive. It looked like he was going down in the second set. But these young guys are all coming out with a very simple strategy – hit as hard as they can and be aggressive. If Rafa is not moving forward then he must not be feeling confident. I think the problems with the serve are causing Rafa to lose focus and not be as aggressive as he needs to be.

  9. After Rome, there’s two weeks before the FO, don’t know whether Rafa could improve his serve during that two weeks. His BH is not up to par too, needs lots of work.

  10. Rafa horrendous on the bh return two fluffed bhs at deuce..
    anyway what happen ned in rome happen ned and soon we will be in paris

    • It’s not over yet! I didn’t pay much attention to Denis Shapovalov on clay because he claimed he didn’t like it. This is shocking to me. I love his unconventional tennis, but never thought he could get this far on clay vs Rafa.

  11. Dennis makes two dfs faces three bps on clay againat rafa and is behind in so many points but still gets the hold… it is just that sort of the day.. and the best that happens from here is a tb and rafa shits in those lately

    • vmk, I liked the way you put it, it’s a bit humorous to me, to lighten the mood a bit, esp in this situation that Rafa is in. Thankfully, Rafa won the TB and so the match this time!

  12. Well it’s not the first time that Rafa has a bad day at the office and runs into an unexpectedly inspired opponent. I think that this happened to him a lot more often than to Federer or Djokovic. Taking him three sets out of five on clay is a totally different thing though.

    Anyway, he needs to fix his serve by RG, but this is doable. His recent problems are mostly due serving mediocrely or even badly, like in the first set today. He says it’s fine in practice, so he’s probably close. It will just click at some point.

  13. Finally, we get a smile from Rafa! He wins! Well deserved! Great fighting spirit!

    Vamos Champ! Keep fighting and keep improving! We love you!

  14. This was a roller coaster ride. Rafa manages to win a tb!

    Doing it the hard way.

    I couldn’t watch the tb. Too nervous. But it was not close.

    I truly hope that Rafa can get his serving woes sorted out. That is what seems to be causing him the biggest problems.

  15. So nothing wrong with Rafa, just training on:
    – playing for over 3 hours
    – wasting matchpoints
    – saving matchpoints
    – winning tiebreaks

  16. Well, it’s good prep for RG. I guess. I really don’t expect Rafa to win Rome this year but I did want him to get some good matches in! He’s still short on matches this year. But he doesn’t recover the way he used to. I thought Rafa would cruise against Shapo. Not so much.

    I’m hoping Nishikori gives Zverev a good match today!

  17. It is true that Rafa can’t seem to get in a groove. He can’t follow up on victories which should give him confidence. He’s been inconsistent, always battling from behind. I thought the win in Barcelona over a red hot Tsitsipas, would give him a boost. But he struggled in Madrid and is struggling now.

    The one saving grace is his ability to stay on the match mentally and fight. The inability to hold his serve is playing havoc with his game.

    • Thank you NY!! I am keeping abreast with the scores on Google as I am on the road running errands. Rafa gave me a heart attack today, at the hospital now 😂😂😂😂!!

      Rafa really needs to sort his serves out, not sure if his back is still an issue. I guess if it is at least he’s good to still be playing. I don’t ha Enoch hope for him winning this tourney, just want him to win RG!! But I will go home and watch the match on UTube, I can enjoy it a lot better!

      Well I’m sure Zverev will come back and probably win, shame I can’t watch match now. Anyway, Vamos!!!

    • I’m interested. You may remember how Kei was a favorite of mine, NNY. He has been off my list because he was gone (injured?) then the Covid.

      But at his peak, he can be very good on clay. Plus, he’s clever and likes to play the big guys. Not sure he’s at his peak or ever be close to those days again, though.

      Tennis Channel is showing Muguruza v Svitolina. Going by the scoreline I can’t tell a lot about how much Zverev is paying attention. Kind of seems like Zverev wants the 2nd set. Kei has no serve, as everyone knows, so he has to make up for that and his height by using other skills.

  18. Well at least Zverev won’t be fresher tomorrow if he wins. I expect Rafa to beat him quite easily. Playing well in Rome after making the Madrid final is something that only Rafa and Djokovic managed to do a few times.

    • Rafa has played nearly 5 hrs over 2 days. I don’t think he will beat zverev that easily ..

      Djokovic may have hands full too tomm against tsitsipas ..

    • Respectfully I don’t think Rafa is beating anyone easily these days. The conditions in Rome will be much better for Rafa than in Madrid, but Rafa is just serving like crap. He gives up early breaks in sets and is battling from behind.

      In his match with Sinner, serve stats showed he was getting in less than 50 % of first serves. When he did get it in, he won 70%. But for Rafa to only be getting in less than 50% of first serves is just not good.

      I am expecting Rafa to make a match of it this time. But I just don’t see any victories cimjng easily for him right now.

    • Respectfully I don’t think Rafa is beating anyone easily these days. The conditions in Rome will be much better for Rafa than in Madrid, but Rafa is just serving like crap. He gives up early breaks in sets and is battling from behind.

      In his match with Sinner, serve stats showed he was getting in less than 50 % of first serves. When he did get it in, he won 70%. But for Rafa to only be getting in less than 50% of first serves is just not good.

      I am expecting Rafa to make a match of it this time. But I just don’t see any victories cimjng easily for him right now.

  19. It was a giant success, the way Kei fought off Zverev to hold his serve. In the first game of set 3. Keep that up and win the set and match, Kei!

  20. Rafa short of confidence against Zverev after just three losses… really? He surely knows why he lost against the Russian each time: Nadal was underprepared and the playing conditions were unfavourable.

    • And Rafa did lose to the guy who eventually won the tournament. Still, there’s no question that Rafa is well short of his clay court best. But give his opposition some credit. Sinner played a great match and barely lost. Shapo was balling for most of the match – I never dreamed he could play like that on clay.

      Rafa’s serve, if it doesn’t Get Well Soon is going to be a huge problem for him. He’s well past the age where he can just use it to start the point then win it with his legs. He’s winning with his smarts, his variety and his experience. So far…

  21. As mentioned earlier, Rafa’s young opponents would all hit as hard as possible, and serve big, ie playing very aggressive attacking tennis, to try to beat Rafa on clay. So far, only Rublev and Zverev managed to beat Rafa.

    In Rome, the conditions is slower so perhaps these hard hitting opponents still couldn’t have their way against Rafa. Next for Rafa would be Zverev, but Zverev himself was struggling against Nishikori, needed 3 hours? 3 sets and coming from behind to beat Nishikori.

    Rafa wasn’t playing well this clay season so far, was struggling too at Barcelona but managed to win the title there. His draw at Rome isn’t a friendly one, loaded with young big servers and hard hitters, all playing aggressive tennis against him; Zverev next and maybe Opelka next if Rafa beats Zverev, hard tasks ahead for Rafa!

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