Rome R3 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Isner, Murray vs. Goffin

May 13, 2015 Ricky Match previews 0

Isner 1Rafael Nadal is likely to face a tough test in the form of John Isner during third-round action in Rome on Thursday. Andy Murray and David Goffin are also hoping to reach the quarterfinals.

(16) John Isner vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Rarely is making it past the third round of a tournament anything special for Nadal, but a win on Thursday at the the Internazionali BNL d’Italia would be one of his best of the season. Not only is that because big victories have been few and far between for the Spaniard in 2015, but it is also due to the fact that Isner is in stellar form. The 6’10” American has not been broken in his last six matches and he had little trouble getting past Joao Sousa and Leonardo Mayer in the first two rounds this week. Isner is 11-3 in his last 14 Masters 1000 matches, with a semifinal showing in Miami and a quarterfinal performance in Madrid to his credit.

Nadal is sweeping the head-to-head series 5-0, but only one meeting has ended in straight sets without a tiebreaker. Isner pushed the former world No. 1 to five sets at the 2011 French Open, lost in a pair of tiebreakers in the 2013 Cincinnati final, and most recently succumbed to Nadal 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-3 last month in Monte-Carlo. Nadal reached the Madrid final last week but suffered a disconcerting 6-3, 6-2 blowout loss to Andy Murray. The world No. 7, who destroyed Marsel Ilhan 6-2, 6-0 in his Rome opener, is just 24-8 on the year and has lost four times on clay. Given the way Isner is serving–and, for that matter, the way Nadal is returning–an upset would not come as a major surprise.

Pick: Isner in a 3rd-set tiebreaker

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(3) Andy Murray vs. David Goffin

Murray brings a 10-match winning streak with him into third-round action at the Rome Masters. The third-ranked Scot triumphed at back-to-back clay events in Munich and Madrid before making routine 6-4, 6-3 work of Jeremy Chardy on Wednesday. Murray is an impressive 31-5 on the season with two titles and a pair of runner-up finishes (Australian Open, Miami).

The No. 3 seed almost opted out of this week to get some rest, but he decided to play and it is now Goffin who may rue that decision. Their only previous encounter came last summer on the grass of Wimbledon, where Murray cruised 6-1, 6-4, 7-5. Goffin, who went on a 25-match surge immediately thereafter, has advanced in Rome with victories over Andrea Arnaboldi and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. This is a bad matchup for the 20th-ranked Belgian, because Murray is also consistent and plays great defense but also has far more offensive weapons. It will not help Goffin that he spent two hours and 31 minutes on the court (and saved three match points) with Tsonga on Wednesday night.

Pick: Murray in 2

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118 Comments on Rome R3 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Isner, Murray vs. Goffin

  4. It’s come to this, Izzy being favoured over Rafa……………….sigh.

    I will make time and watch the match, with no expectation whatsoever. Silver lining: if Rafa goes out early he can hit Chatrier early for practice!

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

    • RIBT, we have been watching Rafa play for a long time and today I have come to the firm conclusion that Rafa is playing possum! Rafa seems to play well WHEN he wants to! There is absolutely no reason why Rafa should have played so poorly with or even lost to Andy on Sunday but I suspect Rafa is pacing himself for Wimby….yes…Wimby. He does not want to overexert himself in the clay season bcos he really wants to go deep at Wimby.I feel Rafa is pacing himself enough so that he can give his very best at RG but with enough left in the tank lift the trophy at Wimby for perhaps one more time. Call me silly but I think this is a plausible explanation for Rafa’s yoyo form of late.

      Rafa played Berdych with such reckless abandon and enery like we all know he can and the very next day he plays Andy like he is an amateur…..Andy was not even playing that well! Mark my words……..Rafa is going to do well at RG and at Wimby this year!!!…..and I want everyone to remember I said that!!!

      Rafa is confusing everyone including the pundits…..not even Ricky can get it right! This is the best position for Rafa to put himself going into RG bcos no one now knows what to expect from him!!! Right now the players must all be thinking that they are in for a chance at RG this year but before eveyone knows it, Rafa will be raisng the trophy! I am impartial about Rafa winning the tournament this week……all I want is for him to be ready and inform to bite that RG trophy!

      Vamos!

      Reply

      • @Monalisa, you argue your case very well. I for one am hoping you are right. If Rafa did another Channel Slam I WOULD BE OVER THE MOON!

        While I agree with you Rafa is pacing himself (because let’s face it, he is no longer a spring chicken), I have a hard time believing he deliberately lost (in the manner he did) against Muzza in the final in Madrid. He played the final, so cannot see how much he saved. If he had lost prior to the final I would agree. I think Rafa just got out-palyed in the Madrid final.

        I think the days when Rafa romped through the clay tournaments are over. He is only going to concentrate on the important ones like tune ups for RG and of course, RG itself. This makes sense.

        Also, there being an extra week between RG and Wimby helps. I think Rafa is scheduled to play 2 grass tournaments before Wimby, no? This shows he is up for Wimby 2015. Sweet!

        Reply

  10. Best, cleanest match Rafa has played all season, even better than the match against Berdy. This was a master-class, totally dismantled Izzy.

    He was pumped but calm. More importantly, it signals a measure of consistency where he follows up a good match with another.

    Fantastic stats.

    Vamos!

    Reply

  17. Zero UEs in the 2nd set, zero. 3 for the whole match and those came from Rafa’s DFs. Cannot have been cleaner than that.

    Reply

  18. The other stat I liked was that Izzy had zero BPs on Rafa’s serve, zero. Which is a function of Izzy’s poor return of serve and Rafa’s good serving on the day.

    Reply

  20. Goffin gets a walkover win, Muzza pulled out.

    This is so unfair, Muzza’s heart clearly was not in this tournament. He should have pulled out from the start and given a chance to a lucky loser.

    Reply

      • Agree, not fair on spectators at all.

        Which puts into perspective Rafa’s achievements when he would win MC, Barcelona, Rome or Madrid, RG and Wimbledon on the trot. Muzza is saying he is at the peak of his powers physically and he is fatigued from playing and winning in Munich and Madrid and playing one match in Rome.

        Pfft………

        Reply

      • That’s disappointing to hear about Murray. Wrong on so many levels. The ones who really lose out are those fans who put down money to watch.

        Reply

  23. RT @christophclarey: “Think Rome withdrawal is smart move on Murray’s part but underscores need for a week between Madrid & Rome Masters 1000s.”

    Yeah, they should change the schedule because current one makes Andrew Barron Murray uncomfortable.

    Tosh!

    Reply

      • Could have been 3 breaks. Rafa had 3 BPs on Izzy’s first game of the match, 0-40. Made an error of judgment on what would have been a sitter bunting the ball straight at Izzy instead of going DTL which would have converted the BP chance. That’s how “all business” Rafa was today………..

        Reply

      • So close to three. nice

        I will be be quite surprised if rafa makes his 10 this year. Still, there is a chance. And he HAD surprised us each year in some big way at least once. Besides, consipirator thinks there is chance. Now what’s needed is for ricky to predict an abysmal RG :-).

        10. Would make for all kinds of cheesy and not-so-cheesy headlines, no?

        Reply

  25. @ RIBT:

    “Which puts into perspective Rafa’s achievements when he would win MC, Barcelona, Rome or Madrid, RG and Wimbledon on the trot.”

    Exactly, Rafa does not want to do this anymore bcos it IS indeed taxing and has for years incurred losses at Wimby just bcos! He has bigger fish to fry now at this stage in his career and just want to go for the big tournements like Serena and Venus did.

    Isner had not been broken in 87 service games until he met Rafa today!

    Reply

    • “Ali had his right hand cocked, ready for the follow-through punch but he held it, he didn’t want to ruin the aesthetic of this man going down”

      If Rafa goes on to win La Decima, especially pulverizing Djokovic in the process, Djokovic will never recover mentally. He will throw in the towel, much like Foreman.

      Reply

      • Rafa, Bomaye! Rafa Bomaye!

        I love Norman Mailer’s narration in the movie. I wish he was still alive to do one for a Rafa-Djokovic throw down at RG.

        Reply

      • Dont bother really who he pulverizes on the way as long as he wins it. Fed won his only RG without beating Rafa. There will be no * against Rafas decima as he has beaten both Djoko and Fed countless times.

        Reply

    • Lol…rope-a-dope!!! Rafa can actually use his out-of-form to his advantage. It will put less pressure on him as most will expect any one of the (remaining) top four to be in for a real chance to beat Rafa. I will not be suprised if Rafa starts slow at RG as normal but that may give players a false sense of security. Beating Rafa in a best of five at RG is no easy feat no matter how bad he is playing….but the good thing is Rafa is getting good match play, he is not injured, not tired and IS motivated! I will put all my money on him at RG!!!

      Reply

      • OK, I’ll join the collective dream. I had already kind of given up on la decima, at least this year. But it is rafa still, the same guy. Even with that inner battle.

        Just now I am remembering the speech Mister (sic) T gave him just before the AO ’09 final.

        Paraphrasing:

        If a man runs for his life he will run as hard as he can. This opportunity may not present itself again [ how prophetic ! ] and in a few hours it will be over. So it does not matter how much it hurts or how tired you are, you might as well give it everything, you never know what the outcome might be.

        Here’s to another kick-ass Mister T speech in the City of the Children of God.

        Reply

  27. The match started at 6:00 am my time, so I recorded it. But I couldn’t wait to find out the result, so I checked the result online.

    Now I can go back and watch it! But I am happy that Ricky was wrong and Rafa got this win.

    Reply

    • Sanju by “well” I mean either one of the following:

      Win both Wimby and FG – my bold pick
      Win FG and make it to Wimby Finals
      Win FG and make it to Wimby semis

      Reply

    • That’s the good part @sanju. None of the matches coming up will be gimme’s for Rafa, which is what he needs in the run-in to Paris. All the remaining guys are solid Top ten guys. Will be a good barometer of where Rafa’s game is……….

      Reply

  31. Wawa has “staminal” emblazoned on his racquet bag next to his one Australian Open trophy. Hope Rafa makes him squeal like a bloody farm animal tomorrow.

    What an idiot.

    Reply

  32. mona – lol. the conspiracy theory.
    you brought a smile to my face I must admit.
    I dont think Rafa let the madrid final slip and cause a ranking slide on purpose.
    he is in real danger of not even being in the top 8 for RG

    Reply

    • Atul, I want to clarify that I did not mean that Rafa lost on purpose, what I meant to say is that he perhaps did not want to give it his all! What does it really mean to him to win these tournaments after winning them so many times before? GS are what really counts for Rafa at this point in his career. I believe he is being careful about how hard he pushes himself but at the same time he wants as much match practice as possible. No matter what ranking Rafa enters RG, he will deal with it accordingly, let the chips fall where they may!

      Reply

  35. Now that I have watched Rafa’s match, I have to say that it’s impressive to see him beat Isner without any TB’s! He stopped Isner’s string of games without being broken.

    What was surprising was hearing Koenig, of all people, giving praise to Rafa. He said that the first was the best he’s seen Rafa play so far in the clay court season. He thought it was even more impressive than when Rafa played Berdy in the Madrid semis because Isner is so tough. He also said that Rafa had good length on his ROS.

    It’s another satisfying win for Rafa. But as sanju said, I am not getting excited yet. There is a lot more tennis to be played.

    For the record, I do not think Rafa is playing possum with us. He would want to go out on the court and win as much as possible. I just think it’s taking longer for him to get into his best form. As Atul said, no player wants their ranking to drop that low.

    I don’t know if Rafa will be ready for RG. But I can see that he’s getting there. We are seeing some shots that just weren’t there earlier in the year.

    I guess it’s time for Rafa to meet Stan again.

    Reply

  36. I too dont think Rafa is playing possum with us. I am sure he does not want to lose a Masters final in his own country. However if Rafa not winning is giving all his rivals a false sense of security, I dont mind it one bit. But I doubt anyone is taking Rafa lightly. They might think they stand a chance but I doubt any of the Top 10 think he is there for the taking easily.

    Reply

  37. I am curious to see if both Rafa and Fed reach semis, what the result will be? Fed has lost to both Djokovic and Murray with lop sided scores in straight sets, hope he does not to Fed too (:-

    Reply

  39. fantastic ball striking by Belucci! he is bossing djokovic in baseline rallies. Djokovic has been shaky and he will need to raise his intensity quite a bit to win this.

    Reply

    • This is why I said the scheduling is not a coincidence, they want Rafa out so he can have a drop in ranking and have a nightmare draw in Paris. Yesterday they put him first in the hot midday sun against Izzy hoping the conditions will suit the ace-machine. Too bad they did not reckon with the flip-side, how the hot conditions would wear the big man out quickly.

      Reply

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