Rafael Nadal and Hubert Hurkacz will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they clash in round two of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Saturday.
At this point in their respective careers, Hurkacz would be a massive favorite on a faster surface like grass or a hard court. Clay, however, obviously levels the playing field. On his Roman stomping grounds, where Nadal has triumphed on 10 occasions, he certainly has a chance.
The 37-year-old Spaniard most definitely earned his spot in this matchup, battling back from a set down to beat Zizou Bergs 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 on Thursday. Nadal now owns a relatively encouraging 5-2 record during this clay-court swing, with a second-round loss to Alex de Minaur in Barcelona and a fourth-round exit from Madrid at the hands of Jiri Lehecka.
As is generally the case with Hurkacz, his clay-court results have been up and down. The ninth-ranked Pole won only six games against eventual finalist Casper Ruud in the Monte-Carlo third round and lost to Taylor Fritz in straight sets in the last 16 of Madrid, but his dirt swing began with a title in Estoril.
This is not a terrible matchup for Nadal on clay, but it also isn’t an ideal one under any circumstances. Although the former world No. 1’s serve has improved since Barcelona, it still isn’t anywhere close to peak level–and with Hurkacz on the other side of the net you cannot afford to endure any service hiccups.
Even on clay, a whole lot of Hurkacz matches are decided by tiebreakers and come down to just a few crucial points. Given the service discrepancy between the two players and what is still a relative lack of matches under Nadal’s belt, Hurkacz will likely have the edge in those pressure-packed moments.
Pick: Hurkacz in 3
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WWW?
End of an era?
Khachanov in 3
Navone in 3
I can see where I was a bit out with these.
Hurkacz is quite bad on clay. He won Estoril this year beating nobody. Lost in Madrid (under much more favourable conditions) to a mediocre player (and also bad on clay) – Fritz.
His best result on clay is winning a set against Sinner last year in Monte-Carlo. Just take a look at his exploits at last year’s RG (and Rome) and you can see how competent he is on this surface.
“Even on clay, a whole lot of Hurkacz matches are decided by tiebreakers and come down to just a few crucial points” – maybe “some” matches, especially those against other not-so-good-on-clay players.
The Nadal serve argument is not that relevant IMO. First of all, Rafa seems to be serving pretty close to 100%. 199Km/h max, 186 Km/h avg 1st, 166 Km/h avg 2nd (190km/h in 3rd set which is absolutely wow). He served pretty bad in the first set but in the second and third his serve quality index (as computed by ATP tour) was over 300 (Hurkacz leads the tour with average serve index 300). Considering that Rafa won against Fritz on grass basically being unable to serve, I guess that this is not really going to be a problem on clay.
The most important factors IMO are that:
Hurkacz will be playing his first match under pretty different conditions since his last game. Also clay is his worst surface since his biggest weapon – the serve – is not that pivotal and he’s just too tall to move well on clay.
Nadal started slowly but finished strongly and I would say that he’s pretty warmed up.
Most importantly, Rafa made it clear that he’s not holding back anymore – which makes total sense if he wants to have a chance at RG. Also, he has a very favourable draw until the final, he will definitely try to get advantage of that.
That being said, Rafa could still have a bad day at the office and lose. However, my gut feeling is that instead he will come up with a statement win.
Looks like Djokovic just gets it done in 3
Maybe not, being rested probably makes it in 2
Its easy to get it wrong if you don’t dedicate enough time to this game. Lots of variables.
Which one are you mentioning, anon? Novak or Rafa?
Both, I’d say, right, too.