Rome R1 previews and predictions: Monfils vs. Monteiro, Evans vs. Fognini

Main-draw competition at the Rome Masters gets underway on Wednesday, when Gael Monfils and Italy’s own Fabio Fognini are taking the court. Monfils awaits Thiago Monteiro, while Fognini faces Dan Evans.

(Q) Thiago Monteiro vs. Gael Monfils

Monfils and Monteiro will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers when they clash in round one of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Wednesday. The head-to-head series stands at 2-1 in favor of Monteiro, but one of his victories came via third-set retirement (Adelaide in 2022) and it is tied 1-1 on clay. Monfils prevailed 6-1, 6-4, 6-1 at the 2017 French Open before Monteiro won 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 at the 2018 Quito event.

Monteiro is in stellar form heading into the second of two consecutive Masters 100 tournaments. The 106th-ranked Brazilian successfully qualified for the Rome main draw with routine defeats of Giovanni Oradini and Corentin Moutet. He also qualified in Madrid and eventually reached the third round, upsetting Stefanos Tsitsipas in the process. Monfils, on the other hand, is just 2-3 on clay this spring and coming off a 6-4, 6-2 setback against Luciano Darderi in the Madrid opening round. This a match the 37-year-old Frenchman should win when he is in peak form, but Monteiro is playing well enough on his favorite surface to take advantage of a relatively out-of-form opponent.

Pick: Monteiro in 3

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Dan Evans vs. (WC) Fabio Fognini

With Jannik Sinner sidelined by a hip injury, the Italian fans at the Foro Italico will be desperate for someone else from the host nation to make a deep run. Fognini certainly isn’t the top candidate to do so, but at 36 years old he is still playing decent tennis. He registers inside the top 100 at No. 92 and his current clay-court swing includes a quarterfinal performance in Marrakech as a qualifier.

Up first for Fognini on Wednesday is a second meeting with Evans, who won their only previous contest 3-6, 6-4, 7-5 on the hard courts of Dubai in 2020. The 67th-ranked Brit played well for much of the 2023 campaign but he has been a disaster since sustaining a calf injury last fall in Vienna. Evans is a mere 3-10 on the main tour this year and has won just a single match since mid-February. This is Fognini’s best surface and Evans’ worst–and it’s in Italy–so the crowd favorite should have an advantage.

Pick: Fognini in 3

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