Rome QF previews and predictions: Nishikori vs. Thiem, Murray vs. Goffin

Dominic Thiem ousted Roger Federer and will now face Kei Nishikori in the Rome quarterfinals on Friday. Meanwhile, David Goffin is coming off a shocking double-bagel of Tomas Berdych and will go up against Andy Murray.

(13) Dominic Thiem vs. (6) Kei Nishikori

Nishikori and Thiem will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the semifinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Friday. Their only previous meeting came last summer on the grass courts of Halle, where Nishikori prevailed 7-6(4), 7-5. The world No. 6 secured a spot in a second straight World Tour Finals that season and he is easily on pace for another place in the year-end championship. Nishikori is 28-8 for his 2016 campaign following a semifinal performance in Madrid and wins this week over Viktor Troicki and Richard Gasquet.

Very few players have been better than Thiem this season; in fact, only Novak Djokovic owns more victories. The 22-year-old Austrian is up to 15th in the rankings thanks to a 32-9 record that includes titles in Buenos Aires and Acapulco. Thiem appeared to be wilting under the weight of an overloaded schedule when he lost right away to Juan Martin Del Potro in Madrid, but the No. 13 seed has roared back in Rome by knocking out Alexandr Dolgopolov, Joao Sousa, and Roger Federer. This should be a high-quality encounter, but court positioning may be the decisive factor. Thiem often gets caught too far behind the court, and that would be especially troublesome against an aggressive, quick-striking opponent like Nishikori who consistently plays on top of the baseline.

Pick: Nishikori in 3

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(12) David Goffin vs. (2) Andy Murray

What will Goffin do for an encore? Whatever he does, it will be mathematically impossible for it to be any better than what he accomplished on Thursday. The 13th-ranked Belgian, who had previously been 0-2 lifetime against Tomas Berdych, double-bageled the eighth-ranked Czech 6-0, 6-0. It was the first-ever double-bagel issued by Goffin and the first-ever double-bagel suffered by Berdych. While the scoreline is obviously a massive shock, it is not as if the No. 12 seed’s amazing form has come out of nowhere. He has already reached two Masters 1000 semifinals in 2016 (Indian Wells and Miami) and boasts a 22-9 record having also taken out Leonardo Mayer and Jack Sock this week.
Goffin wins 1
Up next for Goffin on Friday is a fourth career meeting with Murray, who is sweeping the head-to-head series 3-0. In fact, the world No. 3 has not even surrendered a set to Goffin. He prevailed 6-1, 6-4, 7-5 at Wimbledon in 2014, 6-1, 6-0 on the indoor hard courts of Paris last fall, and 6-3, 7-5, 6-3 a few weeks later on the clay of Belgium to clinch the Davis Cup title for Great Britain. Coming off a runner-up performance in Madrid, where he beat Rafael Nadal in straight sets in the semis, Murray has advanced in Rome with routine victories over Mikhail Kukushkin and Jeremy Chardy. This is a terrible matchup for Goffin, who plays a similar brand of tennis to that of the Scot but does so with far less firepower. It will also be difficult for the underdog to duplicate such an incredible performance less than 24 hours later.

Pick: Murray in 2

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14 Comments on Rome QF previews and predictions: Nishikori vs. Thiem, Murray vs. Goffin

  1. The timing of Rome meant that Murray went in as No. 2. If you look at the Draw you will see that was the case. Then Federer dropped approximately 500 points by going out in his second match. Even if Murray goes out against Goffin he will still retain No. 2 ranking and will be in that position at the FO. Reasonable to suppose that one of the reasons Federer played Rome was to try avoid that happening.

    • that’s right! Murray won’t be able to meet Novak before the finals…

      it looks like Murray suddenly enjoys playing on clay…he is destroying Goffin out there…

    • Strsight-face,

      I agree with you. I thought that Fed made the effort to play to try and defend his points and keep the #2 ranking.

  2. I see Star Baker, Goffin, can’t make his dough rise against Mooray.
    Goffin just broken Mooray to level at 4:4.

    Why does Mooray have such a sense of entitlement? He has to put up some performance if he loses a point.

    • The night of the long knives lol. You really do have a down on Andy lol. No wonder I was/am in your bad books for liking him although I hope you noticed I was very critical of his bad behaviour and manners in Madrid.

      I didn’t watch today’s match but was surprised to see Goffin got slaughtered in the first set.

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