Rome QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Zverev, Djokovic vs. Tsitsipas

Rome boasts a monster quarterfinal lineup on Friday, headlined by top seed Novak Djokovic facing Stefanos Tsitsipas. Second seed Rafael Nadal is taking on his recent Madrid vanquisher, Alexander Zverev.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (5) Stefanos Tsitsipas

Last fall Stefanos Tsitsipas clawed his way back from a two-set deficit at the French Open to push Novak Djokovic to five sets. The Serb won that match in the end, but Tsitsipas proved that he has plenty of fight and determination. The Greek is playing better tennis now than he was then, making their quarterfinal match on Friday all the more tantalizing.

Djokovic’s matches this week have been fairly routine, but the difficulty level is about to make some considerable jumps. Tsitsipas won the Monte-Carlo Masters and he made the final in Barcelona. His clay-court season thus far is the best on tour. The Serb may also have less motivation than he had in the past. Recently, he said “Now, after achieving the historic No. 1 ranking for the longest weeks at number one, it’s going to be a relief for me because I’m going to focus all my attention on Slams, mostly.”

He’ll still need match play, but he’ll perhaps be less willing to leave it all on the court outside the majors. With the way Tsitsipas has been playing and moving, this one has all the makings of an upset.

Cheryl pick: Tsitsipas in 3

Ricky pick: Tsitsipas in 3

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(2) Rafael Nadal vs. (6) Alexander Zverev

Things have become more complicated for Nadal on the dirt than they usually are. The Spaniard, who normally skates through the early stages of a tournament, has been pushed mightily in Rome. It’s true that his draw wasn’t favorable, with Jannik Sinner and Denis Shapovalov as his first two opponents–but he’s been on court for more than five hours so far. His form against Sinner was good, but he struggled on serve against Shapovalov and had to pull out the win after being down two match points in the third set.

Alexander Zverev just posted his first clay court-win over Nadal last week in Madrid. The two men met in the quarters there, as well. While the altitude in Madrid tends to favor bigger servers like Zverev, it is still a clay-court tournament and defeating Nadal on this surface under any circumstances is still a notable accomplishment.

Zverev didn’t look particularly strong in his three-set win over Kei Nishikori. Midway through the second set, the German was down a set and a break. He managed to find his way to the win, but he looked off-kilter for much of the match.

With a more traditional clay court, Nadal is still the favorite to advance–but the second seed will have to make more first serves than he has been all week. Zverev isn’t as likely to let off the hook the way Shapovalov did in the round of 16.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 3

Ricky pick: Nadal in 2

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138 Comments on Rome QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Zverev, Djokovic vs. Tsitsipas

  1. I agree with the first match analysis and prediction. IMO Tsitsipas has a superior clay court game, but of course Djokovic knows much better how to win matches when he really wants to. The Greek is more than capable to win fair and square against the Serb, especially on clay. I don’t expect Novak to be too motivated this week, although he might want to test his limits before RG starts.

    I do expect Rafa to be fully waken up and pretty fired up after yesterday’s game. He will also want to break Zverev’s casual streak against him. With the Russian not being too fresh by his own admission and the match starting not long after he finished the last one (18 hours or so I think) Nadal should wrap this up rather quickly. Logically Zverev should pay for his Madrid wins today, but Rafa is not yet 100% so a surprise is always on the cards for now.

  2. Tsitsipas has a great chance. He’s playing better than Nole in Rome so far, just look at his serve statistics, clearly better than Djoker’s.

  3. People are still sticking their heads with the big 3. It is over, Sasha will beat Nadal again regardless of the court surface. I think everyone has forgotten that Nadal was on the brink of defeat to Shapo. He played nearly 3.5 hours to survive the match. It is over for Nadal. Let celebrate the new era.

    • Well I never understood why some people prefer new things which are clearly inferior to the older ones which they already got. Boredom I guess. In this case the change will be for the worse so I hope that it comes at late as possible. In any case the future does not belong to the likes of Zverev which is already an underachiever. You can start looking for excuses to use them next times he crashes early from a GS (RG, then Wimbledon). He’ll never be half the player the “Big 3” are even now as they are fading. We’ll probably have a weak era again. Hopefully Domi, Tsitsi and soon Jannick and maybe Casper, Felix can hold off the assault of big hitters from the Russian labs.

  4. So far Opelka beat an almost retired veteran, an injured wildcard, a big hitter who happened to play two good matches on clay this year and some journeyman today. Like many pointed out, his quarter of the draw was a joke so we’ll se how unbeatable he is tomorrow. Spoiler: he will lose unless he continues to be incredibly lucky and faces an exhausted/injured opponent. IMO this guy should not be playing tennis at all. He makes Karlovic look gracious and very skilled.

  5. Zverev seems fried physically.. will probably be fried mentally if rafa gets set 1.. so crucial the first set for rafa

  6. Zverev has found his range.., now .. that was a crucial bp saved to avoid getting broken.. hope rafa has no damage done after the tumble.. wonder how he took it from 15-30 and bp down..

    But match has the same line as against shapo

    In montreal shapo defeated rafa and lost to zverev… dont wnat the symmetry to repeat

    At least stops the streak of sets against zverev

  7. Omg rafa… saves three bps and holds in own service games… saves 3 game points and breaks in zverevs service game

    Will be gobsmacked if rafa does not drop serve again

  8. Once the rally gets going getting the prime djokovic vibes the way zverev is crushing the bh in both directions

    Now two bps again

  9. Dug out of another hole… rafa doing rafa things on clay so far- winning the big moments while not being that much better than the opponent

    Another break would be nice

  10. Rafa really gives his fans heart attacks service game after service game! He almost has to save BPs in all his service games in the second set. Thankfully he still wins in straight sets! It’s such a torture watching him plays these days, even on clay!

    Into the SF and Opelka next; another big server! Rafa’s serve is so shaky these days, struggling to hold serve so often!

  11. And Opelka has not been broken all week. I think Rafa will be happy with this week’s progress. 3 very tough opponents, he would be battle tested before RG for sure !

  12. Amazing that Rafa won that match! He’s got to be exhausted. It’s not even 24 hours since his marathon squeak vs Shapovalov.

    Strangely, I’m not too worried about Opelka. His wins so far have been against guys that are not great returners or great players. Rafa IS a great returner, especially on clay. Just hope his body holds up!

    At least Rafa’s fighting spirit is getting a great workout this week.

    • Hello Ramara,

      During the rain delay, Tennis Channel has been showing the Delbonis v Opelka match. I try to avoid watching gigantic players but had a peek at Opelka. Feeling confident enough to say, do not worry Rafans. Rafa will soundly beat Opelka.

      • Thanks, RC! For all the sound and fury from the young’uns, I have a feeling the final will come down to…ta daaaa… Nadal v Djokovic! lol

        • Hello, Marilyn!

          Thanks for your reply. Not feeling too optimistic about Novak right now. The Tennis Channel commentators are making it worse.

          Gosh, Tsitsipas is too good.

  13. I think despite his struggles Rafa is getting the real workout he needs in prep for RG!! Life usually always comes to a perfect balance.

    Hope Rafa makes me smile again tomorrow. Vamos, Rafa!!

    • That might well be true, Monalisa.

      But, I’m feeling doubtful that the outcome of this Tsitsi match is not as much up to Novak as it is in Stefanos’ hands.

  14. I just checked the score to see that Rafa won! I woke up early and turned on the tv to see that Rafa win the first set, I checked my recording and went back to sleep!

    Now I have to watch the match! I am so happy!

    Yesterday I just couldn’t watch after Rafa was down 2-4 in the second set. I checked the score but did not watch until the third set TB. Later on I went back and watched my recording. What struck me is that Rafa seemed to play better from the latter part of the second set on. He did get broken again early in the third set, but he broke right back. He also had break chances at 3-3 and at 5-5. The tennis channel commentators said at one point in the third set that Rafa’s serving stats had improved a lot. So as I watched the third set I realized that serving better was freeing up Rafa to go for his shots.

    Rafa was still missing some shots he would normally make. But he stayed in it. I am glad I did not watch it live because he had to fight off two match points to get to the TB. Yikes! But the TB was anti-climactic. Shapo played so well in the match until the TB.

    I felt encouraged after watching how it played out. Rafa finished the match playing much better than when he started. I was hoping that this might get him ready for Zverev. I am not saying that all is well now, but I did see some good signs in that victory.

    I am going to watch my recording of the match!

    Rafa is in the semis!
    😀

  15. It’s 12:30 PM Eastern Time and Rome has just pulled the tarps off the main court! Live tennis soon. Maybe.

    • I have been following a sketchy hourly forecast for precipitation. If it is true, the rain only gets worse from now until 11 pm (Rome time). Even then, when there is a break, it will be midnight and the fans have a curfew. Wow, we could use all that rain here in Idaho!

      The good news is tomorrow looks better for tennis.

    • Feeling sorry for Svitolina, Swiatek, Rublev, and Sonego. Maybe they give them the choice of playing in spurts, stops, and starts tonight and after the curfew. Or, double up their matches tomorrow.

  16. Just watched the rome 2018 final and Rafa finished the match with a slice backhand volley not dissimilar to today

  17. Well, I would have picked Zv in 2….but I guess I was all wrong…Rafa just continues to amaze, even after that total guts wins over Shapo on Th…..and I’ll take Tpas in 3.

  18. The problem with Tsitsipas is he’s capable of losing the match from a winning position so often, sometimes even when he had MPs against his opponent. Imo, he really needs someone to help bring his game to the next level; he just couldn’t sustain a winning momentum within a match esp against fellow to ten players. He won’t be winning a slam playing like that, I’m afraid.

  19. Win or lose.. djoko is beinng played back into form.. he has been amazing in the rallies. Also probably helps the older person when one starts afresh

  20. Djoko seems to have taken a page out of rafas book.. i can fail with my game not with my mind
    A rafole final will be a blockbuster

  21. And some will say Tsistipas deserved to win?! There is no such thing! He served for the match!!!! The winner always deserves the win!!!!

    • I could never disregard Novak as a contender at any slam…the big three will always be the favorites as long as they decide to play…these youngsters think that once they win a match against big three it will get easier…well, it won’t…Rafa and Novak are just the favorites no matter what…however, I really do not want the two of them killing each other for the title in Rome..I want Rafa to stay healthy for RG…

      Vamos Champ!

  22. See, told you, Tsitsipas is always capable of losing a winnable match! This is not the last time, I bet! If he continues like this, he’s not going to win a slam!

    He needs someone to help him mentally! Losing so often from winning positions is not going to help his confidence. He’s wasting time continuing playing like this!

    • I agree with you. I think he needs a sports psychologist on board. Also may be time to say goodbye to dad and get someone else to just tidy up his game, eg his ROS needs work.
      Fabulously talented player, however.

  23. Federer has lost from winning positions too but would you call him mentally weak ?.All players struggle with the mental side of the game even Nadal and Djoko who are two of the best scrappers ever.Maybe it’s related to a particular style of play ,ie easiermentally to be defensive than attack on big points

    • Nah, the big three are getting old and their mental lapses may be due to their own physical decline. Tsitsipas is young, he’s wasting energy so often in matches, losing from winning positions.

      He had four MPs vs Rublev in one of their matches, yet he ended up losing the match; and that wasn’t the only match he lost from winning position. It happens so often that I doubt that has got to do with his game but his mentality. I mean if he was capable of getting to winning positions so often, then what in his game stopped him from winning?? It must be something mental.

      He needs someone to help him stay focused when he’s leading, and to raise his level to finish the match quickly instead of having lapses and letting his opponent back into the match. He doesn’t seem to have the killer instinct once he’s ahead, and tends to relax when he’s ahead.

        • He did lose the Acapulco final after being ahead. Then he made a breakthrough in MC,only to lose to Rafa
          It’s really a mixed bag.

        • Tsitsipas was in a losing position in the first place, not in a winning position to start with. So as I said in my post, Tsitsipas tends to relax when he’s ahead, and that’s the problem!

          It seems that he’s better chasing from behind instead of when leading! Hence, he’s using up more energy unnecessarily imo; just step it up when ahead instead of letting the match slip away from his grasp.

          • It’s not uncommon among even top players to lose from set and break up even serving for match.It could be overconfidence but also credit to their opponent.
            He’s still very young

    • honestly Sanju, I always dislike seeing Novak on the opposite side of the net with Rafa…the two are still playing into form and would hate seeing Rafa lose to Novak at this point…we know how confident Novak gets when playing Rafa in these best of two…this is why I hoped Tsitsi would win, but then again, who knows why this might be productive: it might as well be good for Rafa to test his current form against Novak…and even if he ends up losing (Rafa’s game is not there yet, but neither is Novak’s) Rafa makes a different beast at RG…let’s hope for the best for our Rafa…

  24. Everyone has lost form a winning position but you have to balance it with winning form a losing position as well. The big 3 do the latter more consistently than the former. So when they owe form a winning position it is quite an outlier whereas with the others it’s almost it a surprise

    • Not so fast, Sanju 😉 Did you hear the screams for Sonego at the end of his match v poor Rublev? I won’t watch Novak v Sonego because Novak might go nuts with that. A lot depends on how well Novak keeps his temper and doesn’t allow the crowd to get into it. Winning in 2 would help. It won’t be easy.

  25. But even Novak has to be tired after that match and playing a young gun in a few hours cannot be a prospect he is looking forward to

        • Sonego in the Rome final! It’s a dream come true for him and his many Italian fans cheering him on. Novak will be tired and perhaps won’t have the recovery time needed. I’m not sure how Novak will feel. I could see him losing.

  26. well, don’t forget Sonego leads in their head to head records beating Novak in Vienna 2020.. 🙂 not that it is an indication of anything on clay, but it will certainly give Sonego some confidence heading into this match…I still think Novak is the beast and will beat the younger fellow…

    • 😊 How well I know Nats! Whatever happens, is my present mindset. If Novak can’t put Sonego away in two sets, I say go on Sonego. Oh yes, Sonego is brimming with confidence already, I reckon.

      Rafa better take care of Opelka in two sets!

  27. I honestly cannot believe that the tennis channel is showing Coco Gauff over Rafa! Go to tennis channel plus! No way!

    So I have to watch the score.

    This is a disgrace.

  28. Crucial game now.. with new balls opelkas first strike may work wonders again.. wanted the second break so bad in the seventh game

    • I’m stubbornly too frugal to buy TC Plus. I may end up getting it for RG and Wimbledon. Anyway, I only have a score to follow for Rafa’s match. I do like watching Swiatek v Gauff.

    • I think Rafa has only lost 3 finals in all these tournaments. RG-0, Barcelona-0, MonteCarlo-1, Rome-2. Quite surprisingly all these losses have come against Djoker only. This is a ridiculous stat.

      • Rafa has only lost 8 clay finals..
        2 – federer
        4-djoko
        1-zeballos
        1-andy murray

        3 of those 8 in madrid -worst condition for him

  29. I’m finally watching the end of Novak v Tsitsipas. How very proud of Novak I am for staying calm and making some overhead smashes. No doubt it took mental and emotional strength to fight off all the break points. And any time someone plays Tsitsipas it’s going to take pure physical power as well. Well done, Novak! Good luck in the next match.💪🏻🤞🏻👍🏻😊

    1

    • And to me, he is not hitting deep enough or moving fast enough. Also, his first serve is not good enough. I say he is rusty. He has done a good job with a few overhead balls (Djokosmash isn’t terrible).

    • I’m impressed with Sonego, all those unbelievable shot selections he made to save Bps after Bps. It’s just that he might be getting tired and then threw in all those ill fated drop shots, losing all of them .
      I guess if he’s a bit more experienced a player, he would play even better than this. Djoko was simply the more experienced player, and could serve well so often to get out of troubles when it mattered. Sonego otoh would start missing the first serves as the match dragged on. The no.1 player is no.1 for a reason, calm and unfazed when in trouble and simply worked his way through patiently to get the win in the end.

    • TC commies are mostly the worst! Courier and Annacone aren’t that bad but the rest…! Arias is my nominee for most annoying though. He specializes in calling the match *he thinks* the players should play. Of course his tennis IQ is 25 years out of date and wasn’t that great then…

    • Sorry, RC, got distracted by my own rant. It’s not enough Djoker has the pro-Italian crowd against him? But commies usually pull for the underdog (unless ROGER is playing) so take heart. The final will be Rafa v Nole, as it should be.

    • I’ve got to have, much against my principles, Amazon Prime, they seem to have cornered the tennis market. But you would love them, cos they love Djokovich, especially Petch, who was positively drooling yesterday.
      They love Rafa and Fed too, I hasten to say!

      • Amazon prime is superb ,I also have tennis TV but they’ve lost the best commentators. Not to mention the movie selection

    • Awesome win in 2019, from a Novak fan perspective. But so far here in Rome, he looks rusty and where’s his powerful down-the-line backhand pass? He isn’t on point in general yet. I’m sure he’ll get lots of practice if he makes the final!

      Will turn my sound on to hear how noisy it is when Sonego is serving. Yeah, I have heard far noisier crowds.

      Novak not moving as fast across the backcourt as he used to. Or perhaps, he is being cautious with his body. Novak could not switch direction and get to the ball…again! He is not going to keep up with Rafa in Rome if he does win this match.

    • Defending like a monster, vmk1. Maybe, if he is holding something back today. He’s not getting enough length on the balls. I have not seen him playing monster level. It’s all good. Rather see Sonego get a chance to play Rafa!

      God, I have to turn off Brett Haber and Jim Courier again.

    • I’m guessing Sonego is really pumped up by playing in Rome and Novak is probably a bit flat. He played a tough match v Tsitsi, some of it today. Of course Sonego played a whole match today already v Rublev who isn’t an easy out, although clay seems to be far from his best surface while it is Sonego’s best surface by far.

      • The Novak vs Tsitsipas match was a beauty. Tsitsipas is likely a future #1. As much as I think he is a cocky one, I respect his self-confidence, talent, and work ethic. That match wore Novak down. He got through the Sonego match by the seat of his pants.

        • Tsitsipas future world no.1? Provided he could solve his mental issues of not losing from winning positions so often!

          I like Tsitsipas (of course can’t compare with Rafa my fave!); but Tsitsipas has to learn how not to waste energy on court. To me, his shot selection ability, and changing of tactics on court still need improvement!

          I feel he really needs someone to guide and pushes him to the next level; I doubt his dad as his coach is able to do that. Tsitsipas may have all the varieties in his game, but complacency or overconfidence in one’s own abilities may be a hindrance to one’s progress.

      • Agree about that.. but those mp saves in the most hostile of circumstances are probably what will be remembered rather than the dfs thus earning him that moniker

        • He was clutch on the overheads today 😁. I don’t recall cringing at those at all. But I did feel the sore muscles and flat feet. He did not allocate enough real match time on clay. I’m not at all sure about him facing Rafa now.

          • We both got the finalists right in the bracket, but I hope your winner wins. It has no bearing on RG though

          • Thanks, Big Al.
            I had Rafa there at first. Rafa is the right pick. It was a stubborn personal move switching to Novak. Even Ricky but mostly the commentators on Tennis Channel ignore him like he is banished. It all irks me. He is still #1. Over the years he has earned his place at the top. It’s my opinion.

  30. I am nervous about Rafa facing Novak right now. The issue is Rafa’s serve. Novak is probably the best returner in the game. One of the all-time best. Rafa’s serve has been very inconsistent. The tennis channel commies pointed out that he only lost two points on his second serve, I think in yesterday’s match, it is his second serve that is saving him.

    Even with a really good serve, Novak puts enormous pressure on his opponents. So that is my main concern. I do believe that Rafa’s game is coming together. He’s not there yet, but he doesn’t have to be. He is not at RG. I think this is the best he has looked so far during the clay court season. We also got our answer to the question if things would be different in Rome from Madrid. Rafa is in the final and he got through a challenging draw with quality opponents.

    Watching Novak I see that he is not yet at his best either. But Rafa and Novak even at less than their best, are still tough. It should be a good match. If Rafa loses his serve early, as he did with Shapo and Zverev, it will be difficult. He has shown that incredible mental will and stayed in the fight. He will need it tomorrow.

  31. Fantasctic days tennis for Djoko and he applauded Sonego as he left the court. The crowd will probably be behind him tomorrow. Im a bit worried he could be tired tomorrow.Great atmosphere,the curfew was due at 10pm but hard to imagine the crowd going anywhere.

  32. Greg Rusedski said Novak was probably the best player of all time (Rafa best on clay ) and its hard to argue with that .

  33. I do believe that Djoko will be the best player of this era; he simply needs another two slams to tie with Fedal. His other records – most Masters titles (and winning each Masters at least twice); five YE championships; six YE No.1; most weeks at no.1; most HC slams won; highest prize money earned; positive H2H vs almost all current players and esp against Fedal! And, who else could beat Rafa so often on clay including at the FO; and beating Fed so often at Wimbledon?

    Who else could compare to or beat him at those records?!!

    • Love your comment above, Luckystar.

      But I doubt he will win two more GS titles. Maybe one but two? It’s getting harder and harder considering the new guys and his own strength slipping.

    • I will say it again just to make the point. As far as I am concerned, there cannot and will never be one greatest player. The top three all have records that will most likely stand the test of time.

      It is really a disservice to try to anoint one of them the best of all time.

      • With what you say in your comment I fully agree, NNY.

        Rafa is an all-court great. What Rafa has accomplished on clay makes him the best, and will stand at LEAST as long as I live.

  34. Looks like djoko brain farted on that 30-30 point..

    But what a set by rafa… serving and forehanding crazily.. djoko playing well too

    • Novak is doing the best he can. I noticed yesterday after the Tsitsi match Novak could only do so much. Even with that “save himself” mentality, he beat Sonego. Brave of him to want this final with Rafa. He had to know it was too much. But he is trying. He respects Rafa and knows his tennis well. It’s a dangerous court to be playing on at this point. Those lines are wicked! I really hope Rafa wins this in two sets. He should.

      • Serving is a real chore for Novak. If his body parts attached to the arm are sore, he shouldn’t push it. No more aces, maybe. Easy does it, if it works, it works.

        • Novak’s arm goes numb. He’s trying to shake it out on the changeover.
          Not the best situation for him. I seriously want Rafa to win! He is stronger and healthier.

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