Rome QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Wawrinka, Ferrer vs. Goffin

May 14, 2015 Ricky Match previews 130

Rafa 1Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka will battle for a place in the Rome semifinals on Friday. David Ferrer and David Goffin are also on the schedule.

(8) Stan Wawrinka vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Friday. The head-to-head series is being dominated 12-1 by Nadal, who is a perfect 5-0 against Wawrinka on clay. Eleven clay-court sets have all gone in favor of the Spaniard and Wawrinka has never even forced a tiebreaker. They most recently faced each other on the slow stuff two years ago at Roland Garros, where Nadal cruised 6-2, 6-3, 6-1. Wawrinka’s lone victory, of course, came in the 2014 Australian Open final. The Swiss took advantage of a hobbled opponent to triumph 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 and they have not since played against one another.

Nadal has showed occasional signs of emerging from a season-long slump but he has not yet dug himself out of the funk. The world No. 7 needs three more wins to finish off what has been a good start this week in Rome. He trounced Marsel Ilhan 6-2, 6-0 then beat John Isner 6-4, 6-4 on Thursday. Also in dire need of some momentum, Wawrinka has advanced with victories over Juan Monaco and Stan Wawrinka–losing one set to Monaco in the process. The ninth-ranked Swiss is 20-6 for his 2015 campaign but has won only five of his last 10 matches. It is safe to assume that Wawrinka is not playing well enough or consistently enough to change what is an alarming trend of futility against Nadal on this particular surface.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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David Goffin vs. (7) David Ferrer

They say it is better to be lucky than good and Goffin has been both this week in Rome. After overcoming Andrea Arnaboldi 5-7, 6-2, 6-1 in his opener, the Belgian found himself trailing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 5-3 in the third set on Wednesday only to take the final four games while saving three match points. As if Tsonga was not already kicking himself, the Frenchman will be ruing the missed opportunity even more now. That’s because Munich and Madrid champion Andy Murray withdrew citing fatigue, giving Goffin a walkover into the quarterfinals.

Next up for the world No. 20 is a second career meeting with Ferrer, who won their only previous encounter 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 last fall on the indoor hard courts of Paris. Ferrer has cooled off just a bit since capturing titles earlier this season in Doha, Rio de Janeiro, and Acapulco. But the eighth-ranked Spaniard is looking good in Rome with straight-set wins at the expense of Richard Gasquet and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Thanks in part to the surface, Ferrer should come out on top of grinding baseline battle.

Pick: Ferrer in 3

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130 Comments on Rome QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Wawrinka, Ferrer vs. Goffin

  3. Did not see the match…just got back home from a long exhausting day…but I checked the result occasionally…loved the score…then I went through all of your comments and appreciate your growing enthusiasm… 🙂
    Rafa is on the raise…hope he takes advantage of it…i want him to keep improving, to reach his full potential by the time RG comes…
    And btw I think Rafa wanted to defend his points.. No doubt about it…just wasn’t ready…but he is getting there…he is…
    Vamos DR Nadal!

    Reply

  7. Waw obviously likes Rome courts…he’ s been successful there and most likely will count on Rafa’ s inconsistencies…I would like to see Rafa wining long points not the other way around…I hope Rafa stays in there without making too many UEs and hitting winners himself…
    Rafa please be smart and sharp!
    Vamos Dr!

    Reply

  9. never thought Ferrer would struggle so much against Goffin a win is a win though. Nadal should beat Wawrinka in 2 sets. 6-3 6-4

    Reply

    • The way rafa is playing right now, surprised he is in the lead. Terrible terrible forehand!

      Even worse than it was against fognini!

      This is getting disgusting

      Reply

  20. Right now it is a battle of who is makes less forehand errors! Poor quality. 10 forehand UE by stan and 8 by rafa….

    I am sure rafa must be thinking this is going like his match against fognini! Gets a break and then loses

    Rafa is definitely the underdog now and if he loses set 1, I don’t now what he’ll be thinking!!

    I am hoping stan plays worse hands this set

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  21. That just breaks your heart, now Stan is in front! In the old days, this set woul dhave been over already! I really have to try do hard to get used to this new Rafa!!

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  24. I was trying to follow the score on my iPhone as I tried to get home as quickly as possible.

    it’s a tb!

    Come on Rafa! You can do this!

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  29. So it is a new low! losing a tie break after being up 6-2. This performance was worse than the one against Fognini in barcelona!

    Rafa played like a coward when he had set points .

    There could not be a more confidence shattering set! and mind you, stan was playing awfully bad for most part. Rafa just beat him at being bad!

    I cannot even imagine rafa winning from here. Just don’t have any belief in his game right now after watching this set.

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  31. throughout the set, I was not even thinking of rafa hitting forehand DTL because rafa cannot even hit his CC forehand efficiently!

    There is not even a single aspect about rafa’s game admire at the moment .

    He immediately needs a break and some breathing space here!!!

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  32. It is curtains for me!! I am no longer going to watch Rafa play….its all basket ball……at least Lebron knows how to win!!! Rafa can piss off!!!

    Reply

    • I have never stopped watching a rafa match in my entire life. Over the last 30 mins I have been thinking again and again to do that for the first time.

      It is almost like we know he cannot win! the confidence level is so bad for us fans , imagine how bad it must be for him out there!

      Reply

  36. It’s Rafa’s movement that is affecting the FH. He is not getting out of his own way in time. Rafa has slowed down…..

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    • not at all! it is not about slowing down. This is far far far worse than that.

      At this current level, Murray, Nishikori, Djokovic will pulverize him while any other player who is playing good tennis on the day will have a great chance of beating him.

      Reply

  39. I have stopped watching. I just can’t do this anymore. It’s just unimaginable to see something like this.

    Reply

  41. Rafas will to win is amazing, he is curently playing his best tennis this year no matter what his fans says.

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  43. All a slumping player has to do is look across the net and see Rafa and they seem to be reinvigorated.

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  45. why is Rafa regressing again? this is just beyond comprehension…I can’t believe he is doing exactly what I feared he would be…standing way behind the baseline, being defensive and lets Wawrinka fool him…depressive…and I feel sorry for Rafa…on top of everything he does not have any luck in this match…the lucky star is on Wawrinká’s side…

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  49. cannot believe I am watching a player who is 66-1 at the french open….

    he is out there, fist pumping and trying to get a break back but we know it is over.

    Reply

  50. This is just like the Madrid Final. Now Rafa has lost his calm, I hope he does not lose it on his serve…..

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  54. Rafa will go to Paris seeded #7…………

    Rafa deserved to lose, the way he lost that 1st set. When Rafa played Isner he said ne needed to protect his serve, and he did. Why does he not bring that same attitude to every match?

    Rafa is not in the reckoning at all for RG, at all.

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  57. After Rafa won the French last year I remember reading a tweet about an ex tennis player from India(I forget his name) placed a huge wager that Rafa would never win another slam which I thought was just trolling but now I’m beginning to think what did that guy know.

    Rafa needs a shake up soon to put it mildly.

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  58. I am at a loss for words. I could not continue watching. But reading the comments here tells me all I need to know.

    Rafa really has hit bottom. It’s incredibly sad to see.

    The idea of him having to play at RG after this latest fiasco seems too be impossible. How on earth can he go into RG on such a low note?

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  59. I remember saying here earlier today that I wasn’t even thinking about a possible semifinal meeting with Rafa and Fed. This is why. I said that Rafa has to get past Stan first. I did not get too excited this time because of what happened in Madrid.

    However, I really did think Rafa would win this match. What has Stan done this year? He’s been playing like crap. But Rafa was worse.

    At least I am not falling apart like I did after the Madrid final. This time I made sure not to be over confident. Rafa has proved me right, unfortunately.

    Rafa fans have been through so much with him over the years. But I truly did not expect it to come to this.

    Reply

    • ^^This is hilarious! What next? He can’t play if it’s cloudy?

      C’mon Rafa, this is a pathetic excuse. I am beginning to think more and more that he is being fed lies by his entourage, they are not leveling with him. How can he call not being able to consolidate a break “playing well”? How can he call squandering 4 set points in a TB “playing well”?

      For me this loss was worse than Madrid. At least in Madrid that was a straight forward mauling, he never had set points, he never broke Muzza’s serve. Here, he totally went crazy after he lost the 1st set, he was playing like a crazy man: no control, no strategy, just defiance. Rafa of old would have “deleted” that 1st set and started afresh, made adjustments, found solutions. Instead of stepping into the court more to take control when he had those 4 set points, he retreated further into the bleachers! Why can’t Uncle Toni tell him to play closer to the baseline?

      So let’s recap:

      Rafa cannot consolidate a break of serve anymore;
      Rafa cannot serve out a set anymore;
      Rafa cannot be aggressive when it matters anymore;
      Rafa cannot be clutch anymore

      It was amazing for me the way Stan came into the match: he clearly had a game plan: to attack Rafa’s FH, to step into the court at every opportunity, and best of all, he was not going to be cowed. Rafa on the other hand, came into the match hoping to see Stan implode, hoping to capitalize on Stan’s mistakes.

      Bad strategy.

      Sorry Rafans if I am being too hard on our man but c’mon. When will Rafa see the obvious?

      Reply

  61. I think people here are going a bit over board in their analysis.
    C’mon. Rafa played much better today than he did in the Madrid finals!
    He kept on fighting till the end and even made some great winners. The thing was Stan was absolutely smoking everything off his racquet today. Not much one can do when he is in that kind of striking zone.

    To me, Rafa appears to be going down the path Roger has went 2009 onwards. His game became inconsistent, started losing to lower ranked guys. Others on the tour also grew up in confidence. That coupled with the inconsistent game has resulted in numerous incomprehensible losses since then.

    You guys continue to rue about Rafa’s FH. Federer’s FH has been missing for past 5-6 yrs. Usually, there is absolutely no zing in that shot nowadays compared to his prime period.

    So, Rafa will adjust. He will develop a new game to counter the inconsistencies and string wins together.
    It’s just that the tour is growing in confidence while facing him. And you know what confidence can do in Sports! All it’s going to do is make him more vulnerable to losses on his bad days, then he previously had to suffer!

    Reply

    • I remember clearly that period when Feds forehand, even flying one, stoped to make impact. It started to look soft, easy ball to retun. It hit feds confidence, becouse he couldnt finish points fast and easy. It took him years to find a way to finish points fast on his terms again.

      Reply

    • Sorry @abhirf, you are not making any sense. First you say Rafa is going down the same path as Fed and then you say Rafa will adjust and improve. Is that the path Fed has taken, adjustment and improvement? Doesn’t look like to me.

      Yes, Rafa was more exhuberant yesterday than he was in Madrid, wouldn’t say he was more effective. It was crazy exhuberrance, no strategy whatsoever, wasted energy.

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  62. Rafa played his absolute best.But i think Stan played the most memorable clay game that i have ever seen.The stats say it all

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  63. I had fears about this match….I really did…Rafa once again had his chances and he did not take them…it becomes a habit…it’s all in his head and it seems that the damage is done and he can not recuperate soon…it is so sad to watch him suffer defats like this…it must have a huge impact on him as well…if I feel this bad about it I imagine how hard it is for Rafa to cope with it…

    I hope he can mentally bring it together by the time RG comes…what I mean is that I wish he comes to RG motivated enough to fight…and it may be that he goes deep…and it also may be that he loses early…however, the days to come will be the most difficult for Rafa…he will have to deal with his inner doubts, with his possible luck of motivation and with all these sick headlines how Rafa is done and dusted etc.

    I am with Rafa till the end…I will cheer for him and love him no matter what he does at RG…I love to see him smile and I hope he will have that victory smile again…it may not happen soon but I will not give up hoping…

    it does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop!

    Vamos Rafa!

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  65. I missed the first set but Stan definitely played like ah boss in the second set. I mean seriously Murray didn’t beat Rafa so much as Rafa beat himself but Stan took it to him big time and BEAT Rafa! This is what happens when you start losing. People believe and go in knowing they have a chance. Stan played like shit all year but massive today.

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  66. There is something that I want to say after this latest loss. I said it about Fed when so many were saying he was done for good. A champion always has one more great run in him. So it will be with Rafa. I can’t say where or when it will be. But it will happen.

    I was concerned that Rafa’s problems were serious, but I thought that maybe I was worrying too much. But now I realize that my gut feeling was right. I’ve watched too many years of this sport not to know when a player is in real trouble, even if it’s my favorite.

    This has been one crazy ride. I will be Rafa’s fan no matter what.

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  67. Rafa made a startling comment ‘ He had no leg in second set’. He has not even played that much. How will he compete in best of 5 if he has no legs in best of 3?

    Reply

  68. Anyone entertaining thoughts of a miracle at RG has to be as delusional as Rafa is about his current level of play.

    I would be very, very surprised if Rafa gets out of his quarter, regardless of who is in it.

    Reply

  69. I am beginning to think it’s Uncle Toni who needs a shrink, not Rafa. He clearly is the one telling Rafa he is improving in spite of these debacles.

    Reply

    • Just yesterday u said you believe Rafa is peaking didn’t you?

      Please do not keep any expectations from him. He has to stitch together a good set of wins back to back or win a big tournament before we expect anything from him. Till then zilch from me.

      When I read today morning that he lost to Stan, I was sad but not in the least surprised.

      Reply

      • “Just yesterday u said you believe Rafa is peaking didn’t you?”

        Yes, you caught me out AGAIN @Sanju! Of course you would never ever make such prognostications, being of a superior make-up and all. Shame on me.

        Thanks for the advice on expectations on Rafa but I will keep my own counsel on this if that’s okay with you. And on whose behalf are you speaking when you say “before WE expect anything from him”? Geez, @Sanju, just because you don’t expect much from Rafa anymore doesn’t mean everybody should be as pessimistic as you are.

        I expected Rafa to beat Stan. That he disappointed does not change my expectations regarding his expectations, nor does it change my expectations of Rafa going forward. When Rafa next meets and plays Stan, I will still expect him to beat Stan, I believe he is that good.

        Did I expect him to squander 4 set points in a TB against Stan? Hell, no! Was I surprised, stunned even? Hell, yes! You, my dear @Sanju, being the sanguine sage that you are, would answer yes and no to both questions!

        Reply

      • sanju,

        You are correct in saying that Rafa must get some wins consecutively. He’s not able to do that. He can have a few decent wins, and then it falls apart. Also, as you said, he needs to win a title. I’ve been saying that for a while now. Winning titles is what gives a player belief and confidence. When you aren’t winning titles then you do not have that core belief and confidence.

        I was cautious about the match with Stan. I wasn’t sure what to expect. I thought maybe Rafa could keep up the momentum with the good win against Isner.

        However, you also were guilty of looking ahead. You said that you could not stomach a loss to Fed. Well, you won’t have to worry about that now.

        Reply

  71. I just saw the hot shot. Rafa was smiling when Stan fired the hot shot. So he thinks its a joke when people fire winners past him?

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  72. To be honest it does not matter who Rafa has to face and the low seeding. Whether he faces Djoko..Murray..Fed in QF or SF, how does it matter?

    Anyways what matters is the RG win..if he does not win..to me it is immaterial whether he gets out in QF or SF makes no difference.

    I feel Rafa will draw Murray in QF .

    And frankly Berdych, Ferrer, Stan are dangerous opponents too in QF

    Raonic may withdraw, hence Stan will be No 8 if Raonic withdraws.

    Reply

    • And he is definately not drawing Federer in QF

      Wont be surprised if Rafa, Murray, Federer are all in other half of Fed 🙂

      Reply

  73. Imagine Rafa beats all people he lost to on clay to win the title

    Foginini, Murray, Stan and Djoko 🙂

    I know I am being funny 🙂

    Reply

  74. Federer should have some sympathy with Nadal’s struggles this season, which the Spaniard has ascribed to “playing with too much nerves for a lot of moments”. His own confidence ebbed away in the middle of the 2013 season, after a back injury that restricted his movement. Yet he recovered to win six titles last year, and believes there is no reason why Nadal cannot also rediscover his mojo.
    “Of course we have had more success than other players,” said Federer after his 6-3, 6-3 win, “so you might be shocked to hear at times that we are doubting ourselves. But anybody who says something else is lying to you. It’s normal in a 15-year career: there are moments when you’re just not so sure how aggressive or how passive you’re supposed to be playing.
    “He [Nadal] has to go through all the process of having to explain himself time and time again and maybe that drags over into the matches a little bit, plus maybe his body is not feeling so well. Next thing you know you just don’t win as much as you and other people are used to. So then you’re obviously not going to feel as good as when you were on a 30-match winning streak.
    “But he seems like he’s doing just fine and regardless of what anyone says to me he’s the favourite to win the French Open. The guy’s only lost there once in 10 years. There’s no way past that guy being the absolute favourite for that tournament.”

    Reply

    • I have a solution for Rafa. Fed retires to the end of this year and Rafa hires Fed to be his coach. If anyone knows about Rafa and his weaknesses it’s Fed! And Fed obviously understands Rafa… 🙂

      Reply

  75. I liked the following post from a Rafan on tennis.com:

    @JasonRaphael says:

    “People can cheer all they want. Nadal is the greatest of all time (arguably) and he will get his mojo back. He’s clearly in decline right now. But he will be able to bounce back. And to those calling for him to RETIRE?!…get a freaking clue. Rafa’s not going ANYWHERE. He’s losing a lot right now. But he will be back and he will be fine. This is what happens when the player gets older and they have to make changes. Roger made his changes. He did make a Slam Final last year with his new racquet. We ALL know the changes Serena & Maria made. Andre Agassi made tons of changes and he came back and completed the Career Grand Slam.

    Rafa is without a doubt in the worst shape we’ve ever seen him. But like he said, it’s NOT the end of the world. I’m so sick of fair-weather, ridiculous tennis fans. So he’s having a tough year. So what. His “tough year” is everyone else’s GREAT YEAR on Tour. He’s still the best clay-courter of ALL TIME (easily) and if he doesn’t win the French this year, he can still win plenty more next year and beyond.

    True Rafa fans like me, stand up. Unite. Our Matador is having a tough season. But he can bounce back and he will. Novak’s had PLENTY of tough seasons. Roger’s had PLENTY of tough seasons. Andy Murray’s had PLENTY of tough seasons. They all have tough seasons from time to time. It happens.

    I wanna see somebody beat Rafa in 3 sets on red Parisian clay. Until that happens, like Federer says, Rafa is still without a doubt the man to beat at Roland Garros. He doesn’t have 9 of those things for nothing! ;-)”

    http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2015/05/federer-beats-berdych-to-reach-italian-open-semifinals/54897/#.VVdFk02JjIU

    Amen!

    Reply

  77. Watching the Djoko/Ferrer match now just leaves me totally bored. There is no nuance to their game, just banging balls keeping them in play. When Rafa retires, I shall give tennis a rest.

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

    • It was an overall boring match but some rallies were good. However there was no much zing.

      BTW Djoko uses the drop shot a lot nowadays. Never saw him do that a lot before. Ofcourse trying to save energy and avoid getting into too many long rallies.

      Reply

      • Yes, Djoko has been using the drop shot a lot all tournament. I think this is part of Team Nole’s strategy to take advantage of Rafa’s preferred court positioning way off the baseline.

        Reply

  78. Djoko is not playing at his best in Rome..He is still better than others but if anyone has a redlining day, they will take him down.

    Hoping Fed wins second semi. Should be interesting to see tomorrows final. Fed chasing his 1st Rome title and Djoko trying to keep winning streak alive.

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  79. Seriously though, my one concern about Rafa’s low seeding at RG is that he will be shunted out to the outside courts more than usual, especially in the early stages of the tournament. The outside courts are not as big as Chatrier, something Rafa likes and plays to his defensive skills.

    Reply

  80. Glad Rafa is out of Rome. That Court Centrale looks dangerous. Better not to take chances with injuries………….

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  81. We have nothing to fear regarding the scheduling and time of play, even the draw for RG. Right now Rafa is his own worst enemy. He is beating himself.

    No one has to do anything to make it tougher for Rafa at RG. He’s already done it all my himself.

    Reply

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