Two clay-court Masters 1000s have come and gone, which means we are coming down to the home stretch to the French Open. But there is still one more Masters event to go, taking place this week in Rome immediately following the conclusion of Madrid. Carlos Alcaraz is taking a week off after triumphing at home in front of the Spanish crowd, which means the door could be open for everyone else. Yes, that is what the 19-year-old’s ascension has come to; even the top-ranked players’ title chances in any tournament are dependent on whether or not Alcaraz is in the field. No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic, 10-time Rome champion Rafael Nadal, and Madrid runner-up Alexander Zverev are among the contenders.
Internazionali BNL d’Italia
Where: Rome, Italy
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 5,415,410 Euros
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal
Draw analysis: With Alcaraz having pulled out, we have another imbalanced draw on our hands. Djokovic and Nadal were in the same half of the Madrid bracket and the story is the same in Rome. At least they don’t have Alcaraz with them this time around!
The rest of the seeded contingent in the top half is unspectacular, but there are plenty of dangerous unseeded floaters who could give the two all-time greats some trouble. Djokovic will begin his week against Aslan Karatsev and potential quarterfinal opponents are fellow Serb Miomir Kecmanovic and Monte-Carlo runner-up Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (who upset the world No. 1 en route to that final). Nadal could face John Isner in round two, Italian hopeful Lorenzo Sonego in the last 16, and either David Goffin, Sebastian Korda, or Botic van de Zandschulp in the quarters. Goffin and Korda came extremely close to beating Nadal in Madrid and Indian Wells, respectively.
Alcaraz’s absence means there is no other top-eight seed in Zverev’s section. But it doesn’t mean the third-ranked German will have an easy time of things. He is likely to open against rising clay-court star Sebastian Baez and there are plenty of other capable clay-courters in the bottom quarter.
Perhaps the most intriguing section is the one that is home to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev. They may be the favorites to reach the quarterfinals, but Jannik Sinner is in stellar form and will be playing at home in what will surely be raucous atmospheres every time he takes the court. Sinner could have an entertaining second-round matchup on his hands against either Dominic Thiem or Fabio Fognini before potentially running into Rublev in the quarters and Tsitsipas in the semis.
Hot: Hubert Hurkacz, Miomir Kecmanovic, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Sebastian Baez
Cold: Novak Djokovic, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Denis Shapovalov, Fabio Fognini, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Borna Coric, Stan Wawrinka, Dominic Thiem, Federico Delbonis, Cristian Garin
Quarterfinal predictions: Miomir Kecmanovic over Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal over David Goffin, Jannik Sinner over Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Cameron Norrie over Sebastian Baez
Semifinals: Nadal over Kecmanovic and Sinner over Norrie
Final: Nadal over Sinner
WWW?
Sinner in stellar form? But he got hammered 61 62 by FAA
that’s one match. Sinner’s results have been consistently great.
If he was so steller he would have won that match since FAA is supposedly cold by your standards, anyway Sinner has been dealing with physical issues lately, he did not seem like himself in that match.
Sinner will be motivated by the fact that Alcaraz is getting all the attention and it’s on home soil.
Alcarez is not in the Rome field.. So, if Nadal wins, so called pandits will put an asterisk.. If someone else wins, it will be a much deserved win..haha
Kecmanovic over Djokovic? I don’t think so. He came close in Belgrade 1, but Djoker was pretty out of form for that match. Kecmanovic has become a steady sort, but doesn’t go much beyond the quarters. Not gonna hype Alcaraz but Djoker did take him to three tb’s, which was more than anyone else in Madrid did. I think Djoker’s “cold” period is over.
Yeah, Nole never really had one anyway.
I think Rafa will do well in Rome. If he reaches SF and faces Djokovic, could be an interesting one..not sure who will win as both are patchy.
I dont know but somehow Rafa being 5 instead of 4 maybe better. He avoids Alcaraz in qtrs for sure but draws the risk of facing Novak in qtrs..
For Rafa to stay 5, Tsitisipas has to do better here than Rafa
Novak is barely 270 points ahead of Dannil..if he loses in qf..he loses No 1 ..he defends 600 in Rome and will drop 420 points if he loses in qf..This will mean a No 2 seeding at RG
Ruusuvuori I’m pretty sure will take Alcaraz’s spot in the draw.
Here are my revised picks with Alcaraz now out:
QF: Djokovic over Schwartzman, Nadal over Goffin, Tsitsipas over Rublev, Zverev over Norrie
SF: Djokovic over Nadal, Tsitsipas over Zverev
F: Djokovic over Tsitsipas
Djokovic was cold for a time, but he’s warming up fast and his level against Alcaraz would’ve been enough to beat almost anyone else. I really can’t see him losing to Kecmanovic, he should set up a semi-final date with Rafa. Sinner beating Tsitsipas? Unlikely imo since he got absolutely hosed at the AO in that match-up. Sure he’ll have the crowd here, but I don’t think the surface will do him any favours if he has to play the Greek.
It’s a boring choice, but I think Nadal, Djokovic and Tsitsipas all make the semis. Maybe Zverev for the 4th, I dunno, I’m just not sure about him.
Novac is back. He’ll win next two tournaments.