Rolex Shanghai Masters preview and predictions

With Rafael Nadal sidelined and Novak Djokovic quite clearly recovered from a shoulder injury, the race for the year-end No. 1 ranking could get a lot more competitive. Djokovic just picked up 500 points in Tokyo and he now heads to the Shanghai Masters, where he is 32-4 lifetime with four titles—including in 2018. Roger Federer returns this week for his first ATP tournament action since the U.S. Open, joined in a strong field by a red-hot Daniil Medvedev, Beijing champion Dominic Thiem, and Andy Murray.

Rolex Shanghai Masters

Where: Shanghai, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $7,473,620
Points: 1000

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic

Draw analysis: Four Shanghai participants (and also Nadal, of course), have locked up their Nitto ATP Finals spots. It is Federer who can really play the spoiler role in Shanghai, where he has potential dates with David Goffin in the third round and Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. Zverev and Goffin are eighth and ninth in the race to London, respectively. Goffin, however, faces a tough opener against Richard Gasquet and Zverev could run into either Andrey Rublev or 2018 Shanghai runner-up Borna Coric in the last 16. Federer’s difficult road is likely to begin with Marin Cilic on the other side of the net.

Thiem will make a quick turnaround following his success in Beijing to begin his Shanghai campaign against Pablo Carreno Busta in all likelihood. The other two seeds in Thiem’s section who have not yet played (Nikoloz Basilashvili beat Radu Albot on Sunday) could also have tough openers on their hands. Matteo Berrettini will get things started against Jan-Lennard Struff, while Roberto Bautista Agut possibly awaits the huge serve of Tokyo semifinalist Reilly Opelka.

Djokovic’s quarter is loaded with fun early-round contests. Among the openers are Denis Shapovalov vs. Frances Tiafoe (winner to meet Djokovic), John Isner vs. Alex de Minaur, and Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. qualifier Alexander Bublik. Stefanos Tsitsipas, who just reached the Beijing title match, will begin in Shanghai against either Auger-Aliassime or Bublik. Gael Monfils, Lucas Pouille, and Hubert Hurkacz could also make some noise, although Monfils may not be 100 percent.

Can anyone prevent a Djokovic vs. Medvedev semifinal showdown? Murray would like to a get a shot at doing so, as he is on a collision course with Medvedev for the quarterfinals. The Scot continues his comeback against Juan Ignacio Londero in round one before potentially running into Fabio Fognini and then Karen Khachanov. Medvedev may be looking at a second-round affair that would undoubtedly feature never-ending rallies with Gilles Simon, while outside London hopeful Diego Schwartzman is a potential quarterfinal opponent for the fourth-ranked Russian.

First-round upset alert: Andrey Rublev over (12) Borna Coric. This would only be an upset according to ranking and seed, as Rublev is in a fine form right now and also leads the head-to-head series 2-0. The Russian, who is 14-5 in his last 19 matches and has not lost in the first round since Montreal (qualifying), prevailed in straight sets at the 2017 NextGen ATP Finals and again at the 2018 Doha event. Coric finished runner-up to Medvedev in St. Petersburg, but he is just 1-2 on the Asian swing so far with a setback against de Minaur in Zhuhai and a far worse loss to Taro Daniel in the Tokyo first round.

[crowdsignal poll=10426212]

Hot: Daniil Medvedev, Dominic Thiem, Matteo Berrettini, David Goffin, Denis Shapovalov, Alex de Minaur, Alexander Bublik, Reilly Opelka, John Millman, Andrey Rublev

Cold: Felix Auger-Aliassime, Kyle Edmund, Frances Tiafoe, Marin Cilic

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev over Karen Khachanov, Pablo Carreno Busta over Jan-Lennard Struff, and Alexander Zverev over Roger Federer

Semifinals: Djokovic over Medvedev and Zverev over Carreno Busta

Final: Djokovic over Zverev

[polldaddy poll=10426159]