The Asian swing concludes and the race to the Nitto ATP Finals heats up with the Rolex Shanghai Masters beginning on Wednesday. These may be the dog days of the fall swing at the end of an especially grueling Olympic year, but most of the top Turin contenders will be in action—including four-time Shanghai champion Novak Djokovic. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are obviously among the title favorites, as well, while guys like Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev cannot be discounted.
What is in store for the penultimate Masters 1000 event of 2024?
Rolex Shanghai Masters
Where: Shanghai, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $8,995,555
Points: 1000
Top seed: Jannik Sinner
2023 champion: Hubert Hurkacz (not playing)
Draw analysis: Sinner and Alcaraz are squaring off in the Beijing championship match on Wednesday, ending a streak of five consecutive head-to-head meetings in semifinals. However, the semifinal trend could return in Shanghai—where the two friendly rivals are once again on the same side of the draw. In fact, Sinner, Alcaraz, and Medvedev are all in the same half just like they were at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open—leaving Djokovic and Zverev on a collision course for the semis.
Sinner’s section is especially difficult. The world No. 1 could face one of the last two Beijing champions, Ben Shelton or Arthur Fils, in the fourth round before running into Medvedev in the quarters. Alcaraz might have the Chinese crowd against him in each of his first two matches—potentially against Jerry Shang and Yibing Wu. Tokyo runner-up Ugo Humbert and Hangzhou champion Marin Cilic are possible fourth-round opponents for the third-ranked Spaniard; Tommy Paul is a likely quarterfinal foe.
Playing in his first tournament since losing early at the U.S. Open, Djokovic has a favorable path at least to the semifinals. Neither Andrey Rublev nor Grigor Dimitrov is in particularly good form, so Djokovic’s quarterfinal opponent could be Alexei Popyrin—who stunned the 24-time Grand Slam champion in the third round at Flushing Meadows.
Zverev’s road is projected to feature Jordan Thompson in round three, Lorenzo Musetti or Karen Khachanov in the last 16, Frances Tiafoe in the quarters, and recent nemesis Taylor Fritz in the semis. Fritz has won three in a row against Zverev, beating the German at Wimbledon, the U.S. Open, and the Laver Cup.
Hot: Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Jack Draper, Arthur Fils, Jordan Thompson, Flavio Cobolli, Alexei Popyrin, Tomas Machac, Brandon Nakashima, Alex Michelsen, Jerry Shang, Bu Yunchaokete
Cold: Casper Ruud, Holger Rune, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Karen Khachanov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Miomir Kecmanovic, Nicolas Jarry, Stan Wawrinka, Adrian Mannarino
Quarterfinal predictions: Daniil Medvedev over Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz over Tommy Paul, Novak Djokovic over Alexei Popyrin, and Taylor Fritz over Jordan Thompson
Semifinals: Alcaraz over Medvedev and Djokovic over Fritz
Final: Djokovic over Alcaraz
who ya got?