Rogers Cup preview and predictions

It won’t be Roger’s cup this season, nor will the trophy belong to several other top 10 players when this upcoming week’s proceedings in Toronto are all said and done. In fact, not a single one of the tournament’s three most recent champions is in the field. That list includes world No. 2 Andy Murray, No. 4 Rafael Nadal, and 10^th-ranked Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Roger Federer is also among the notable withdrawals. So to say the door is open for Novak Djokovic to capture his first Rogers Cup title since going back-to-back in 2011 and 2012 would be a considerable understatement.

Rogers Cup

Where: Toronto, Canada
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $4,089,740
Points: 1000

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
2015 champion: Andy Murray (not playing)

Draw analysis: This is not your typical Rogers Cup, which is being held much earlier in the summer than usual due to the Olympic-inspired rearranging of the tennis calendar. With players either still recovering from the French Open-Wimbledon swing or resting in advance of the Rio Olympics, Toronto’s draw is strikingly depleted. In addition to tournament organizers ruing the absences of Murray, Federer, Nadal, and Tsonga, the withdrawal list also includes David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet—each of whom would have been seeded.

Stan Wawrinka could be a beneficiary, because a rare distinction of being the No. 2 seed at a Masters 1000 event has automatically placed him on the opposite side of the bracket from Djokovic. But given Wawrinka’s relatively lackluster form and with Dominic Thiem’s gas tank appearing to have finally hit empty, this section looks particularly wide open—and that’s putting it generously. Jack Sock or Bernard Tomic may be able to take advantage.

In fact, the entire bottom half of the draw is notably soft. The other two first-round bye recipients are Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic. Nishikori retired from a fourth-round Wimbledon match (against Cilic, ironically) because of a rib injury and although the Croat almost punched a ticket to the semifinals at the All-England Club, he remains inconsistent. A pair of talented, on-the-rise players in Nick Kyrgios and Lucas Pouille have to be loving their spots in the bracket. Kyrgios will open with Canadian wild card and Wimbledon junior champion Denis Shapovalov before possibly facing Cilic in the last 16. Pouille will likely coast through two rounds prior to a potential date with Nishikori.

Djokovic should have no trouble of any kind until at least the semifinals—unless John Isner reaches the quarters. But Isner is in the same section as arguably his biggest nemesis, Tomas Berdych, so the 6’10’’ American may be hard-pressed even get a shot at the world No. 1. Making his first appearance since bowing out of Wimbledon in the third round against Sam Querrey, Djokovic will likely start in Toronto with an in-form Gilles Muller before possibly running into the mercurial Benoit Paire. In other words: routine. Then again, Djokovic vs. Querrey also should have been routine.

Wimbledon, on the other hand, was a smashing success for Milos Raonic. Canada’s top player could not quite bag his first Grand Slam title—he did not even come close in the final versus Andy Murray—but it was still the best major run of his life. Raonic, also a former runner-up at the Rogers Cup, is on a collision course with David Goffin for the quarterfinals. Goffin almost derailed the Raonic train at the All-England Club, but the world No. 7 stormed back from a two-set deficit to get the job done in five. Neither man, though, can look ahead. Raonic’s second-rounder could come against Alexander Zverev, while Goffin is in the same section as Washington, D.C. champion Gael Monfils.

First-round upset alert: (Q) Radek Stepanek over (14) Benoit Paire. Paire enjoyed a decent run in Washington, D.C., where he reached the quarterfinals after staging a miracle escape against Muller. But you never know what you are going to get from the mercurial Frenchman on any given day and he turned in a stinker 24 hours later against Zverev, who crushed him 6-1, 6-3. Stepanek is toiling down at 119^th in the rankings, but he already has two matches in Toronto under his belt after qualifying for the main draw.

Hot: Novak Djokovic, Milos Raonic, David Goffin, Gael Monfils, Lucas Pouille, Steve Johnson, Ivo Karlovic, Gilles Muller, Alexander Zverev, John Millman, Sam Querrey

Cold: Ernests Gulbis, Vasek Pospisil, Dmitry Tursunov, Ivan Dodig, Grigor Dimitrov, Kevin Anderson, Denis Kudla

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic over David Goffin, Nick Kyrgios over Lucas Pouille, and Jack Sock over Bernard Tomic

Semifinals: Djokovic over Raonic and Kyrgios over Sock

Final: Djokovic over Kyrgios

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!